丘陵地区流域土地利用对氮素径流输出的影响

氮素是地表水体富营养化的一个限制因子,土地利用对农业非点源污染的氮素输出具有重要的影响.以位于亚热带低山丘陵地区的安徽省南部宣城市梅村流域为实例,通过航空遥感图像解译、GIS分析和实地定位动态监测方法,研究了具有不同土地利用结构的农-林生态系统地表径流水的氮素含量和输出通量及其与土地利用的定量关系.结果表明:氮素的输出以NO₃^--N的输出为主,土地利用类型或土地利用格局对径流水中氮素的含量和输出具有非常显著的影响.在同一种土地利用结构系统下,NO₃^--N与T-N的含量间具有极显著的正线性关系;而只有林地-水塘系统下,NH₄⁺-N与T-N的含量间有极显著线性关系.而各类氮素的输出量间都具有极显著正的线性相关关系.各类氮素的输出量都与土地利用类型具有指数相关性,林地、水塘对氮素输出具有负效应,而水田和村庄则具有正效应.同时,土地利用类型对径流中氮素的含量也有影响.     

Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans,climate, the atmosphere,and ecosystems

Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7–4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs.     

佛山市南海区土地利用结构对非点源污染影响研究

文章在野外布点采样的基础上分析了非点源污染评价指标,同时,利用GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究南海区内不同土地利用结构与非点源污染之间的关系。结果表明：在以单一土地利用类型为主控制的流域中,耕地控制的小流域的地表水水质明显好于城镇控制的小流域;在不同的土地利用类型的组合结构中,各项污染物浓度往往介于林地、基水地或耕地、城镇用地为主控制的小流域之间;在其他条件相似时,随着小流域内林地和基水地的增加,非点源污染程度有所降低,而随着耕地或城镇、农村居民点用地比例的升高,非点源污染有所增加。此外,土地利用结构对非点源污染的影响不仅表现在数量结构上,同时表现在空间分布上。     

Managed grassland alters soil N dynamics and N2O emissions in temperate steppe

Reclamation of degraded grasslands as managed grasslands has been increasingly accelerated in recent years in China. Land use change affects soil nitrogen(N) dynamics and nitrous oxide(N_2O) emissions. However, it remains unclear how large-scale grassland reclamation will impact the grassland ecosystem as a whole. Here, we investigated the effects of the conversion from native to managed grasslands on soil N dynamics and N_2O emissions by field experiments in Hulunber in northern China. Soil(0–10 cm), nitrate(NO_3~-),ammonium(NH_4~+), and microbial N were measured in plots in a temperate steppe(Leymus chinensis grassland) and two managed grasslands(Medicago sativa and Bromus inermis grasslands) in 2011 and 2012. The results showed conversion of L. chinensis grassland to M.sativa or B. inermis grasslands decreased concentrations of NO_3~–-N, but did not change NH_4~–N . Soil microbial N was slightly decreased by the conversion of L. chinensis grassland to M.sativa, but increased by the conversion to B. inermis. The conversion of L. chinensis grassland to M. sativa(i.e., a legume grass) increased N_2O emissions by 26.2%, while the conversion to the B. inermis(i.e., a non-legume grass) reduced N_2O emissions by 33.1%. The conversion from native to managed grasslands caused large created variations in soil NO?3~-+–N and NH_4~–N concentrations. Net N mineralization rates did not change significantly in growing season or vegetation type, but to net nitrification rate. These results provide evidence on how reclamation may impact the grassland ecosystem in terms of N dynamics and N_2O emissions.     

应城市农村居民点人口和用地规模预测

预测2020年应城市的农村居民点人口规模和用地规模。分别利用自然增长法、时间序列分析法和灰色系统等方法预测2020年应城市的农村人口规模;利用人均定额指标法预测2020年应城市农村居民点的用地规模。研究结果显示:(1)利用自然增长法预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为62.74万人;(2)利用时间序列分析法预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为64.4万人;(3)利用灰色系统法进行微分方程模型拟合,预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为65.48万人;(4)通过以上三种方法的预测结果比较得出2020年应城市农村人口的平均规模为64.2万人;(5)利用人均定额指标法预测2020年应城市农村居民点用地规模将达7704 hm~2。研究结论为应城市城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目开展奠定坚实基础。     

Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH₃-N. NH₃-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH₃-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.     

土地利用变化对区域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响——以京津冀城市群为研究对象

将土地因素引入水—能源—粮食系统,运用耦合协调模型对京津冀城市群2005— 2018年水—能源—粮食—土地系统的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明：（1）从空间尺度上来看,京津冀城市群建设用地由中心向四周扩散;从京津冀城市群土地利用格局来看,耕地和建设用地面积分别呈现较为明显的下降和增长趋势。（2）将土地纳入水—能源—粮食系统降低了京津冀城市群大多数城市水—能源—粮食系统间的耦合度和耦合协调度。（3）土地与水—能源—粮食子系统组成的两要素系统的协调水平会进行叠加或抵消进而影响水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调度。本文的研究启示在于：京津冀城市群在考虑水、能源、粮食协调发展的同时,应考虑土地对水—能源—粮食系统整体及内部子系统的影响,根据城市自身资源优势合理配置资源、优化产业布局以实现可持续发展。     

东北地区产业结构优化与城市土地集约利用协调性

精准识别产业结构优化与城市土地集约利用的协调状况,对于推动东北地区产业结构转型升级、协调国土空间规划及产业布局具有重要现实意义。运用耦合协调度模型及探索性空间数据分析法,深入探究了2009—2018年东北地区产业结构优化与城市土地集约利用的耦合协调水平及其空间相关性。结果表明：（1）东北地区城市产业结构合理化水平逐年降低,且区域差异程度较大;产业结构高级化水平小幅上升,但不存在明显的空间分异特征。（2）城市土地集约利用水平呈现出先上升后下降的倒“U”型演变特征,并沿着哈大交通经济带的中心城市向两侧梯度递减。（3）产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化与城市土地集约利用协调度分别呈现先上升后下降及稳步上升的演变态势。两协调度均以大连、哈尔滨等城市为中心向外辐射,呈现“多中心多圈层”的空间分布特征。（4）城市两系统协调度存在显著的空间正相关,但显著性逐年减弱,其中高—高聚集类型主要集中在辽中南城市群,低—低聚集类型集中在黑龙江东部城市群。     

土地市场发育与土地利用集约度的理论与实证研究

市场是配置资源的基础手段和有效方式, 市场发育程度的不同会导致不同的资源配置和利 用效率。文章在构建市场发育与土地集约利用的理论分析框架基础上, 采用因子分析法和多因素分 析模型分别对江苏省开发区的土地市场化率和不同市场发育阶段土地利用的集约度进行了测算。 研究结果表明, 江苏省33.4%的开发区的土地市场发育处于转型后期至相对成熟期发展阶段; 57.1%处于转型中期发展阶段, 整体来说, 市场发育较为成熟。而不同土地市场发育阶段土地利用 的集约度不同, 处于转型后期至相对成熟期发展阶段的开发区土地利用集约水平要显著高于处于 转型中期发展阶段的开发区。因此, 文章认为提高我国土地利用集约度的主要思路应是推进土地市 场创新, 使市场成为土地资源配置的主要机制, 并作为转变土地管理机制的基本点。     

风险规避、非牧用途使用与牧户草原流转行为

基于新疆12个牧业县232户微观数据,运用风险收益理论、期望效应理论构建了草原流转风险规避理论模型与基于博弈论构建了草原流转非牧用途使用理论模型,分析了风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户草原流转的内在机理。使用二元Logit模型、中介效应与调节效应分别探析风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户流转行为的影响。研究表明：违约风险、生态风险、经营风险对牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响,草原流转存在的各类风险可能导致牧户的风险规避行为;非牧用途使用、转移就业能力担忧与家庭收入结构对于牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响;家庭收入结构在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在调节效应,而其转移就业能力担忧在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在遮蔽效应。同时,违约风险、生态风险在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在中介效应。在此基础上,进一步讨论了造成流转风险、非牧用途使用问题的成因与对策。