我国自然保护区有效管理评价指标研究

本文根据我国自然保护区建设速度较快但管理水平较低的现状，在多年调查研究的基础上，提出制定自然保护区有效管理评价标准的必要性，并详细阐述了在保护区管理条件、管理措施、科研基础和管理成效等四个方面的评价内容，提出１３项评价指标，进而作了详细的评分等级划分，提出一套评价全国自然保护区管理质量的指标体系，为全国自然保护区管理的监督检查提供了一套简便适用、易于操作的评判标准。     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Development of methods for establishing nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs: A review

Nutrient criteria provide a scientific foundation for the comprehensive evaluation, prevention,control and management of water eutrophication. In this review, the literature was examined to systematically evaluate the benefits, drawbacks, and applications of statistical analysis,paleolimnological reconstruction, stressor-response model, and model inference approaches for nutrient criteria determination. The developments and challenges in the determination of nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs are presented. Reference lakes can reflect the original states of lakes, but reference sites are often unavailable. Using the paleolimnological reconstruction method, it is often difficult to reconstruct the historical nutrient conditions of shallow lakes in which the sediments are easily disturbed. The model inference approach requires sufficient data to identify the appropriate equations and characterize a waterbody or group of waterbodies, thereby increasing the difficulty of establishing nutrient criteria. The stressor-response model is a potential development direction for nutrient criteria determination, and the mechanisms of stressor-response models should be studied further. Based on studies of the relationships among water ecological criteria, eutrophication, nutrient criteria and plankton, methods for determining nutrient criteria should be closely integrated with water management requirements.     

Protection performance of bicycle helmets

IntroductionThe evaluation of head protection systems needs proper knowledge of the head impact conditions in terms of impact speed and angle, as well as a realistic estimation of brain tolerance limits. In current bicycle helmet test procedures, both of these aspects should be improved. Method: The present paper suggests a bicycle helmet evaluation methodology based on realistic impact conditions and consideration of tissue level brain injury risk, in addition to well known headform kinematic parameters. The method is then applied to a set of 32 existing helmets, leading to a total of 576 experimental impact tests followed by 576 numerical simulations of the brain response. Results: It is shown that the most critical impacts are the linear-lateral ones as well as the oblique impact leading to rotation around the vertical axis (ZRot), leading both to around 50% risks of moderate neurological injuries. Based on this test method, the study enables us to compare the protection capability of a given helmet and eventually to compare helmets via a dedicated rating system.     

Distribution and contamination of metals and biogenic elements in sediments from Zhifu Bay of the Yellow Sea, China

Metals and biogenic elements were analyzed from surface sediments of sixteen stations and a 32 cm core collected from Zhifu Bay in July 2009. High concentrations of biogenic silica (BSi) reflected the high diatom productivity in the Bay. Meanwhile, total organic carbon (TOC) in Zhifu Bay was mainly from terrestrial sources. All metals were lower than the marine sediment quality guidelines. Based on the vertical profiles of biogenic elements, there was a clear increase of TOC, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphate (TP) between 1985 and 2000. TN concentrations decreased after the start of the operation of the sewage treatment plant in 1998; however TOC and BSi remained at high levels. Metal concentrations showed a general increase from the bottom to the top of the core. Most anthropogenic metals reached a maximum during 1996 and 2000, and decreased after the startup of the sewage plant; however, they have increased again recently. The results from correlation analysis and principal component analysis show that industrial pollution is the main source of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in Zhifu Bay, and Yantai Port and ship transportation also contribute a lot to Cd, Cu, Hg, and Pb pollution.     

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.     

Inherently safer design review and their timing during chemical process development and design

This paper discusses the enhancement of inherent safety review and its implementation in the chemical process development and design. The aim is to update and improve the existing inherently safer design review (ISDR) practices during design of chemical process plant by exploiting major accident cases from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB) and Failure Knowledge Database (FKD). Although the basic guidelines to conduct ISDR during design phase are available, however they are too general and incomplete. The review criteria and their best timing for application are still missing. This paper attempts to develop the accident-based ISDR for chemical process plant design. The proposed accident-based ISDR is supported with detail review criteria for each phase of process design. The timing of ISDR application is corresponding to the common design tasks and decisions made in the design project. Therefore, timely design review could be done at the specific design task and the findings help designer to make a correct decision making.     

Effect of Information Availability on Assessment and Designation of Species at Risk

Abstract: Information required to evaluate the extent to which species are at risk of extinction is usually limited and characterized as highly uncertain. In this context, we define information availability as the presence or absence of information used to determine the value of an ecological variable. We examined which of three hypothetical approaches best matched how levels of risk are assigned to species: (1) precautionary approach in which analysts designate levels of risk regardless of the amount of information available, (2) worst‐case approach in which analysts assign the maximum level of risk possible from the criteria, and (3) insurance approach in which analysts assign poorly known species to a high‐risk category when little information is available. We used the quantitative assessment criteria of the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as a case study. We created a binary (0/1) matrix of all 2.4192 × 10⁷ logical combinations of available information for the 14 ecological variables included in the quantitative criteria. We processed each combination of information availability represented in the matrix with a computer algorithm designed to emulate COSEWIC decision‐making rules. Low information availability was associated with a relatively high frequency of not being able to assign a candidate taxon to a risk category, which does not follow the precautionary principle. Information availability and the level of risk assigned to species were directly related, which is associated with the worst‐case approach, and counter to the insurance approach. Our results suggest that information availability can have a major effect on the level of risk assigned to a species. We recommend a conscious determination of whether such effects are desired, and we recommend the development of methods to explicitly characterize and incorporate information availability and other sources of uncertainty in decision‐making processes.     

种间关系预测(ICE)模型在水质基准研究中的应用

水质基准研究主要是基于物种的实验室测试的毒性数据开展的。对于一些毒性数据相对缺乏的化学品,水质基准研究就会受到一定的影响。本文从水质基准研究方法的角度,阐述了种间关系预测(ICE)的基本原理和基本方法,系统介绍了ICE模型的毒性预测方法在水质基准研究中的应用,并通过锌的ICE案例研究证明了模型在中国的可利用性。同时,对ICE模型的不确定性和适用性进行了分析。最后,对ICE模型存在的问题和未来的发展方向进行了探索和展望。