An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

对水泥企业生产环境负荷之浅析

基于生命周期理论,采用CNI环境影响评价方法对我国水泥生产的环境负荷进行了定量分析。结果表明：水泥生产的环境影响主要体现在温室效应、不可再生能源消耗和不可再生资源消耗,其环境负荷分别占对应环境影响类型世界总负荷的2.76％,2.34％和1.39％,2006年我国水泥生产的环境负荷约占世界总负荷的1.28％,其中,立窑生产工艺、湿法回转窑生产工艺和新型干法生产工艺的环境负荷分别为0.84％,0.12％和0.32％。通过行业结构调整,用新型干法生产工艺取代其他落后的生产工艺,可使我国水泥生产的环境负荷降至世界总负荷的1％左右。     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Evidence for Acidification-Driven Ecosystem Collapse of Danish Erica tetralix Wet Heathland

We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0251-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

西安市城市主干道路面径流初期冲刷效应

以西安市城市主干道南二环太白路高架桥为路面径流采样区域,采用人工等时间间隔采样方法,在桥梁排水立管对2010年9—11月的3场径流事件进行全程采样,测试径流过程SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、溶解性Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的浓度变化,研究路面径流的初期冲刷效应及其影响因素。结果表明,西安市城市主干道路面径流污染严重,降雨数小时后的末期径流仍具有较高的污染水平;径流过程污染物浓度变化规律与其赋存形态有关,SS、COD、Pb等以颗粒态为主的污染物的浓度随雨强变化剧烈波动,NH3-N、溶解态COD、溶解态Zn等以溶解态为主的污染物浓度变化受雨强影响较小,随径流过程呈逐渐减小趋势;路面径流初期冲刷现象并非普遍存在,与污染物的赋存状态和场次降雨特征密切相关,溶解态污染物易于出现初期冲刷现象,颗粒态污染物是否出现初期冲刷与场次降雨特征有关;测试的3场径流事件初期30%的径流携带的SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的负荷占场次径流总负荷的比例分别为21.8%～50.0%、25.5%～49.3%、36.3%～52.6%、52.6%～66.7%、26.8%～45.0%、27.2%～63.4%和36.2%～62.6%,表明仅对初期径流进行治理无法实现对西安市路面径流污染的有效控制。     

湘江株洲段丰水期镉污染负荷总量测算及分配

以2010年8月湘江干流株洲段代表性断面水质与底泥监测资料以及其他资料为基础,采用WASP7模型模拟该江段丰水期镉浓度,并进行镉污染负荷测算与分配。研究结果表明,WASP7模型较好地重现了镉浓度的变化规律,8月份该河段上游镉入流量2 446.33 kg,下游出流量3 076.44 kg,区间增量630.12 kg,其中点源负荷量241.67 kg,占38.4%,面源负荷量304.49 kg,占48.3%,内源负荷量为83.96 kg,占13.3%。     

成都市餐厨垃圾产量分析预测及监管体系建设研究

整理汇总了成都市中心城区及郊县餐厨垃圾产生和收运现状,对其产量作出预测;在此基础上提出适合成都市自身情况的餐厨垃圾监管体系构建设想。     

冲击负荷对厌氧序批式反应器的影响及其恢复重建过程

研究了在厌氧条件下以葡萄糖为基质的厌氧序批式反应器(ASBR)中冲击负荷对基质吸收和储存的影响及其恢复重建过程.结果表明,正常状态下,反应器在进水COD为5 000.0 mg/L,出水COD为188.6 mg/L,当进水负荷提高至正常状态2倍后,反应器中COD大量累积,其中51.13％为挥发性有机酸(VFA),48.87％则被转化为糖原储存在细胞体内,出水COD最高为2 368.9 mg/L,污泥糖原储存量最高为273.55 mg/g(以挥发性固体计),是正常状态的4.2倍.在冲击负荷条件下,反应器的产甲烷能力恢复较快,胞内糖原储存恢复较慢,出水COD和胞内糖原分别经过20、41 d后恢复冲击负荷前水平.     

Long term changes in the eutrophication process in a shallow Mediterranean lake ecosystem of W. Greece: response after the reduction of external load

Lake Pamvotis is a shallow Mediterranean lake located in Western Greece near the city of Ioannina. The lake has been recognized as an internationally important conservation site under European Community legislation due to its rich biodiversity. However, during the last three decades the trophic status of the lake has changed as a result of anthropogenic activity (among others irrigation and domestic sewage discharge), resulting in serious problems. Here we present data about the long-term development in eutrophication of Lake Pamvotis. Water samples were collected and analyzed (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, chlorophyll-a) during three monitoring periods: 1985-1989, 1998-1999, 2004-2005. The high nutrient concentrations in the lake water during the three monitoring periods, as well as its eutrophic to hypertrophic status reflect the degree of impact anthropogenic activity has had on the lake. Commencement of a restoration plan in 1995-1996, involving sewage diversion, led to a reduction in external nutrient load and consequently to lower in-lake nutrients and Chlorophyll-a concentrations. Orthophosphate concentration decreased by about 87%, nitrates fell below 1.20mg/l, whilst the total reduction of inorganic N compounds showed a weaker downward trend, fluctuating between 0.39 and 1.24mg N/l with an average value of 0.76mg N/l. However, after a short-term recovery the eutrophic status of the lake remains eight years later (2004-2005), suggesting the importance of the internal loading process and the absence of the top-down effect of fish. This study provides evidence for the need of greater restoration efforts utilized in Mediterranean shallow lakes.     

Influences on Wood Load in Mountain Streams of the Bighorn National Forest,Wyoming, USA

We documented valley and channel characteristics and wood loads in 19 reaches of forested headwater mountain streams in the Bighorn National Forest of northern Wyoming. Ten of these reaches were in the Upper Tongue River watershed, which has a history of management including timber harvest, tie floating, and road construction. Nine reaches were in the North Rock Creek watershed, which has little history of management activities. We used these data to test hypotheses that (i) valley geometry correlates with wood load, (ii) stream gradient correlates with wood load, and (iii) wood loads are significantly lower in managed watersheds than in otherwise similar unmanaged watersheds. Statistical analyses of the data support the first and third hypotheses. Stream reaches with steeper valley side slopes tend to have higher wood loads, and reaches in managed watersheds tend to have lower wood loads than reaches in unmanaged watersheds. Results do not support the second hypothesis. Shear stress correlated more strongly with wood load than did stream gradient, but statistical models with valley-scale variables had greater explanatory power than statistical models with channel-scale variables. Wood loads in stream reaches within managed watersheds in the Bighorn National Forest tend to be two to three times lower than wood loads in unmanaged watersheds.