中国CO《,2》排放的影响因素分解与预测

我国正处于2008年美国金融危机影响下,刺激经济一系列政策的落实观测期,要实现单位国内生产总值CO<,2>排放的目标,任务十分艰巨.本文采用投入产出结构分解技术,对1997-2004年我国应对亚洲金融危机时期的CO<,2>排放量变动进行了7因素的分解测算,结果表明经济增长是CO<,2>排放上升的主要驱动力,能源节约是驱动我国CO<,2>排放下降的主要因素,经济结构变动的影响相对较小.特别,国内最终需求、出口成长以及出口结构变动均推动CO<,2>排放上升,国内最终需求结构变动以及能源替代表现出了对CO<,2>排放的抑制影响等.同时,在我国经济"三步走"目标的前提下,结合能源节约设计了CO<,2>排放的3类情景,给出了未来CO<,2>排放的态势预测,提出了加强需求结构调整、能源效率提高以及可再生能源开发利用的保增长与CO<,2>减排并行不悖的建议.     

中国环境污染损失测算及成因探析

环境问题备受关注,环境污染严重影响中国经济的增长质量.本文采用治理成本法测算了1989 -2008年中国环境污染造成的经济损失,利用环境污染经济损失数据,采用协整理论研究了中国环境污染损失与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,我国经济总量与环境污染之间存在长期均衡关系,经济增长是造成环境污染的基础性原因,并且环境污染状况随经济增长仍有扩大的趋势,至今尚未出现环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的迹象.然后,本文从产业结构、能源结构和效率角度揭示了环境污染的结构性成因.研究认为,高污染行业在整个国民经济中比重过大是造成环境污染的产业结构方面的成因;以煤炭为主的能源消费和高耗能产品增长过快是造成环境污染的能源结构成因;能源效率低下是造成环境污染的技术性成因;资源能源价格长期偏低和法律法规滞后是造成环境污染的制度性缺陷.最后,针对问题提出,只有切实转变经济增长方式,突出技术创新、健全市场机制、完善环境法规才是解决环境污染问题的根本出路.     

Impacts of natural weathering on the transformation/neoformation processes in landfilled MSWI bottom ash: a geoenvironmental perspective

Natural weathering processes are significant mechanisms that noticeably affect the fundamental nature of incineration ash residues. To provide a greater understanding of these processes, a MSWI (mono)landfill site in the north east of the US was selected as the target for systematic investigation of the natural weathering of bottom ash residues. Samples of various ages were collected from locations A (1 yr), B (10 yrs), C (13-14 yrs) and D (20 yrs) of the landfill in 2009. We investigated the phase transformation of the collected bottom ash particles, neoformation processes as well as the behavior and distribution of certain heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cr) in the neoformed phases using optical microscopy, SEM-EDX, and bulk examinations. Key findings: at the preliminary stage, the waste metallic particles (Al, Fe, and Cu) and unstable minerals such as lime, portlandite, ettringite and hydrocalumite convert to oxide and hydroxide (hydrate) phases, calcite, alumina gel and gypsum. At the intermediate stage, the decomposition of melt products including magnetite spinels and metallic inclusions is triggered due to the partial dissolution of the melt glass. At the longer time horizon it is possible to track the breakdown of the glass phase, the extensive formation of calcite and anhydrite, Al-hydrates and more stable Fe-hydrates all through the older ash deposits. Among the dominant secondary phases, we propose the following order based on their direct metal uptake capacity: Fe-hydrates>Al-hydrates>calcite. Calcite was found to be the least effective phase for the direct sorption of heavy metals. Based on overall findings, a model is proposed that demonstrates the general trend of ash weathering in the landfill.     

地铁乘客火灾应激反应过程模型构建与分析

为提高地铁乘客的火灾应对能力,基于应激反应模型,构建地铁火灾应激反应过程理论模型;收集357份有效问卷数据,采用因子分析和结构方程模型(SEM),探讨个体特性、特定情境、认知评价、社会支持、应对方式和应对结果6个变量及变量各维度之间的相互影响关系.研究结果表明:个体特性可以正向调节心理反应结果,特定情境变量可以反向调节...     

Imputing Unmeasured Explanatory Variables in Environmental Epidemiology With Application to Health Impact Analysis of Air Pollution

This paper presents the results of a reconsideration of earlier work that finds an association between daily hospital admissions for respiratory distress and daily concentrations of sulphate (lag 1) as well as daily maximum concentrations of ozone (lags 1 and 3). These associations are found even after clustering the data by hospital of admission and accounting for the effects of temperature. We use an adaptation of their generalized estimating equation technique for clustered data, that daily data being for southern Ontario summers from 1983 to 1988. Like them, we adjust for daily maximum temperatures. However, unlike the earlier work returned to ours includes daily average humidity as a potential explanatory variable in our model. Our analysis also differs from theirs in that we cluster the data by census subdivision to reduce the risk of confounding pollutant levels with population size within regions. Moreover, we log-transform the explanatory variables and then high-pass filter the resulting data. We also deviate from the earlier analysis by taking account of measurement error incurred in using surrogate measures of the explanatory variables. To do so we use new methodology designed for our study but of potential value in other applications. That methodology requires a spatial predictive distribution for the unmeasured explanatory variables. Each day about 700 missing measurements for each of these variables can then be imputed over the geographical domain of the study. With these imputations we get a measure of imputation error through the covariance of the predictive distribution. Along with the predictive distribution we require an impact model to link-up with the predictive distribution. We describe that model and show how it uses the imputed measurements of the missing values of the explanatory variables. We also show how through that model, uncertainty about these values is reflected in our analysis and in commensurate uncertainties in the inferences made. Apart from its substantive objectives, our analysis serves to test the new methods with the earlier results serving as a foil. The reassuring qualitative agreement between our findings and the earlier results seems encouraging.     

Decomposition of alachlor by ozonation and its mechanism

Decomposition and corresponding mechanism of alachlor, an endocrine disruptor in water by ozonation were investigated. Results showed that alachlor could not be completely mineralized by ozone alone. Many intermediates and final products were formed during the process, including aromatic compounds, aliphatic carboxylic acids, and inorganic ions. In evoluting these products, some of them with weak polarity were qualitatively identified by GC-MS. The information of inorganic ions suggested that the dechlorination was the first and the fastest step in the ozonation of alachlor.     

光电探测器微变信号放大电路的设计和分析

针对火灾探测过程中的光电探测器输出的微弱信号设计了一个微变信号提取放大电路。将探测器内阻分解为微变内阻和不变内阻,采用两路取样信号方法进行差模放大。经过计算选择了特定的电路参数,使得电路输出和探测器微变内阻成正比关系,从而实现了微变信号的放大。用斩波方法进行了电路输出性能的实验。对电路参数的选择以及温漂问题进行了详细分析。     

羟基铝蒙脱石去除染料弱酸性深蓝GR的研究

在[OH^-]/[A1³⁺]=2.4的反应条件下,利用A1³⁺与碱液反应制备出Keggin离子,并由此制备出羟基铝蒙脱石.XRD-衍射数据表明:羟基铝蒙脱石的层间距由原来的12.58A(d₀₀₁)增加到18.63A.研究了染料弱酸性深蓝GR在7种改性蒙脱石上的吸附.结果表明:酸性条件下,羟基铝蒙脱石处理有机污染物的去除率高,用0.0200g处理25ml弱酸性深蓝GR溶液,去除率可高达95%以上.由等温吸附线可知:弱酸性深蓝GR在不同改性蒙脱石上的吸附机理主要为表面吸附、离子交换和分配作用.     

基于CFD仿真的炮口制退器性能影响因素研究

目的 在降低火炮后坐力的同时,保证炮手区域超压和温度符合要求。方法 利用流体仿真软件进行炮口流场的数值模拟,对制退器性能影响因素进行仿真分析。根据分析结果,得到改进后的制退器模型,并进行仿真和试验对比。结果 加装侧孔外反射挡板和侧孔倾斜对制退器性能的影响较大,并随角度的变化而变化,加装吹孔能有效降低炮后超压和温度。改进后,制退器的效率提升8.33%,炮后超压值平均降低44.10 kPa,炮后温度值平均降低358.28 K。结论 改进后的制退器具有更高的制退效率以及较低的炮后超压值和温度值。     

基于健康监测系统的大跨度多荷载悬索桥的疲劳与可靠度评估(英文)

在过去的几十年,世界各地建立了许多大跨度悬索桥。通常这些桥梁需承受多种动力荷载,尤其是一些处于多台风地区的公铁两用桥梁。为了保证这些大跨悬索钢桥在运营期内的安全和正常使用,有必要以一定的时间间隔进行桥梁的疲劳和可靠度评估。有鉴于此,许多大跨悬索桥都安装了健康监测系统,但是如何运用其进行准确的疲劳评估仍然是一个问题。本文通过结合计算机模拟技术和健康监测系统的测量数据,以香港青马大桥为例,分析了在多荷载作用下的大跨度悬索桥的疲劳和可靠度。同时,作为利用结构健康监测技术进行结构健康状态评估的这一重要研究方向的有益实践,该研究发展了一系列方法用于评估桥梁的疲劳,以及通过考虑存在于结构的物理模型和计算机模拟中的不确定性用以评估疲劳的可靠度。