资源约束与经济增长研究

资源约束条件下的经济增长研究对中翻经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文从宏观经济的微观基础分析入手.结合当前中国社会和经济发展的实际,在传统效用函数的基础上,引入了社会地位和资源两个影响因素,通过模型的静态及动态分析,重点研究资源约束对经济系统均衡条件、动态转移的影响.分析结果表明:①当期资源的使用量取决于资源的边际效用、消费的边际效用和时间贴现率的大小.②消费资本比足够大或消费足够多且资本与消费的边际替代率足够小是经济系统存在鞍点均衡的必要条件.③资源消耗足够多时,消费资本比将显著下降.并从资源约束这一角度解释了中国经济增长的投资消费失衡问题.最后从实证角度,利用协整理论验证了资源消耗与消费资本比之间的反向关系.     

我国可持续能源系统发展的途径探讨

本文从大规模发展风能所要解决的问题入手,通过借鉴石油和天然气的经验,提出了以租赁方式发展风能的设想,并对我国利用租赁方式发展风能所要解决的问题进行了讨论。     

小样本感度试验方法

提出了一种用于炸药及火工品感度试验的小样本方法。此方法较之传统的Ｂｒｕｃｅｔｏｎ升降法（估计方差一般需要３０ 个以上的试件,而且估计出的方差往往偏小）,可以在少于３０ 个试件的小样本的条件下,对方差进行估计,而且估计精度高。建立了高置信度、高可靠度的Ｐ发火刺激量置信限公式,该公式可以综合利用当前试验数据和以往经验数据,从而仅需少量当前试验,便可达到Ｂｒｕｃｅｔｏｎ 升降法采用３０ 个以上试件方能达到的精度,大大节省了试验的费用及时间。大量的ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ 模拟试验及实例分析都进一步证明了上述结论。     

An optimized airfoil geometry for vertical-axis wind turbine applications

ABSTRACT

In this work, a new airfoil shape optimized for vertical-axis wind turbine applications is proposed. Different airfoil shapes have been analyzed with JavaFoil, a panel method software. Then, the results from the analysis have been used to optimize the performance of the new airfoil shape. Afterward, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of the proposed airfoil, UO-17-LDA, are run for different angles of attack to provide insight into the flow field and the mechanisms related to this increase in performance. The UO-17-LDA airfoil presents a high lift-to-drag ratio and a delayed stall angle with respect to the original FX-63-137 airfoil, making it suitable for vertical-axis wind turbine applications. This increase in performance has been verified by comparing two VAWT designs with the original and the proposed airfoil using a double-multiple streamtube model. Finally, the practicality of JavaFoil for the comparison of different airfoil geometries has been verified, as it is capable of obtaining results for a wide number of flow conditions in small computational times and with a user-friendly interface. Nevertheless, the results diverge from the actual solution for high angles of attack (beyond stall). Hence, the time and effort required to perform CFD simulations is justified to gain insight into the actual behavior of a particular airfoil, as well as to obtain a richer analysis of the flow field and the mechanisms related to the airfoil performance.     

Economic and employment impacts of offshore wind for Ireland: A value chain analysis

ABSTRACT

The imminent development of a number of offshore wind farms in the Republic of Ireland presents a sizable opportunity to stimulate the Irish economy through the growth of an indigenous and globally competitive offshore wind supply chain. This study uses a value chain analysis to evaluate the economic and employment potential of the offshore wind sector for Ireland. The analysis is based on the expenditure on products and services required to develop an offshore wind farm, the planned capacity of projects in the pipeline, and the ability of Irish companies to supply the sector. Results suggest that by 2030, 2.5–4.5GW of domestic offshore wind development could create between 11,424 and 20,563 supply chain jobs and generate between €763 m and €1.4bn in gross value added. This is the first study to estimate domestic GVA potential for the sector.     

上海粘土流变性质及地面沉降问题初步研究（一）

报导了作者早先时候所做的有关上海地区粘土流变性质实验研究结果和地面沉降问题的初步分析,简要评述了当时已有的有关文献,介绍了试验方法,并指出了试验中有重要影响的问题,给出了一些详细的试验结果,发现瞬间塑性变形间性变形还大,不容忽视。     

What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

PRA浓度和显色温度对West—Gaeke法测定SO2的回归斜率和空白值的影响

试验研究表明，Ｗｅｓｔ－Ｇａｅｋｅ法制定大气ＳＯ２，空白试验值不仅随显色温度增高而增高，而且随ＰＲＡ浓度增高而增高。尤其，在２０±２℃时，ＰＲＡ浓度＞０．０１６％时，校准曲线斜率比方法规定值偏高；称取ＰＲＡ０．１００ｇ提纯后使用，在３０℃时，回归斜率比方法规定值偏低。本文提出了对方法的补充意见。     

AN INSULATED EVAPORIMETER1

Evaporation was measured from a circular evaporation pan, 18 inches in diameter and 8 inches deep. The pan was insulated on the sides and bottom using 2 inches of freon-blown polyurethane foam. A U.S. Weather Bureau Class A evaporation pan was used to obtain reference evaporation measurements. Water evaporation from the Class A pan and the insulated pan were highly correlated. Using a water-methanol mixture, the insulated pan may be operated at temperatures below 32 F; the equivalent liquid water evaporation may be determined using a regression equation.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的铁路行车事故预测

铁路行车事故的发生具有偶然性 ,但可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。笔者简述了灰色理论中GM(1,1)预测模型的建模过程和精度检验的方法及步骤 ,在某铁路分局 1995～ 2 0 0 2年间的铁路行车事故统计的基础上 ,应用GM(1,1)预测模型预测了该铁路分局 2 0 0 4年的铁路行车事故发生趋势 ,经精度检验表明 ,模型的精度等级合格 ,其预测结果为铁路行车事故的防范和降低事故损失提供了指导和科学依据。