Teenage drivers: patterns of risk

PROBLEM: To determine patterns of risk among teenage drivers. METHOD: Review and synthesis of the literature. RESULTS: On most measures, crash rates during the teenage years are higher than at any other age, for both males and females. Risk among teenagers varies greatly by driving situation; it is particularly low in some situations (e.g., the learner period) and particularly high in others (e.g., right after licensure, late at night, with passengers present). In some of these high-risk driving situations, risk is elevated for drivers of all ages (e.g., late night driving), in others risk is elevated more for teens than adults (e.g., driving after consuming alcohol), and in others the risk is unique to teen drivers (e.g., having passengers). IMPACT ON RESEARCH, PRACTICE, AND POLICY: These varying patterns of risk form the basis for graduated licensing systems, which are designed to promote low-risk and discourage high-risk driving.     

The 2001 National Household Travel Survey: a look into the travel patterns of older Americans

INTRODUCTION: The main objective of this paper is to highlight travel patterns of older adults living in the United States as depicted in the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). The NHTS is a national data collection program sponsored by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Federal Highway Administration. It is the first national comprehensive household survey of both daily and long-distance travel, allowing for analysis of the full continuum of personal travel by Americans. To better understand the transportation needs of older Americans, it is useful to examine how travel patterns differ across age groups. The intent is to present basic travel characteristics of older adults (age 65+) and allow for comparisons with younger adults (ages 19-64). Travel-related characteristics of older adults in the United States: Results of the 2001 survey showed that older Americans travel extensively and rely on personal vehicles as heavily as their younger counterparts. Older Americans conduct 89% of their travel in personal vehicles. CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY TRIPS TAKEN BY OLDER ADULTS: Older adults tend to be less mobile in that they take fewer trips, travel shorter distances, and have shorter travel times. This pattern is even more pronounced among older women. They are also more likely to suffer from self-reported medical conditions that further limit their travel. Characteristics of long-distance travel by older adults: Older men and women take long-distance trips at about the same rates and show a strong preference for using personal vehicles. And, while men and women take an equal percentage of their trips by air, older women show a strong preference for bus travel. CONCLUSIONS: Although older Americans travel extensively, they are less mobile than their younger counterparts. This pattern is more pronounced among older women and among those with self-reported medical conditions that affect their ability to travel outside their home. Older women consistently take the least number of trips per day, have the lowest driving rates, travel the shortest distances, and are more likely to report medical conditions that limit their travel. For men and women who have to give up driving, alternative means of transportation becomes a necessity. Yet, use of alternative transportation is relatively low; excluding personal vehicle and walking, all other means of transportation account for about 2% of daily travel. Further, of those with medical conditions that affect their travel, only about 12% use special transportation services such as dial-a-ride.     

The characteristics of young Indigenous drink drivers in Queensland,Australia

Objective: This study investigates the prevalence and characteristics of first drink driving convictions among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians (aged from 14 to 24) and considers some of the risk factors associated with recidivism.

Methods: Convictions recorded between 2006 and 2013 were extracted from the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney General database. Convictions were regrouped by gender, age, Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia classification, and sentence severity. Chi-square analyses and logistic regression were conducted to identify group differences in offense characteristics for gender and recidivism (recidivists versus nonrecidivists).

Results: The sample consisted of 1,583 individuals (74.1% males) convicted in the 8-year period. Gender comparisons showed that there was no significant difference in age at time of first offense, blood alcohol concentration (BAC) level at apprehension, or type of penalty received between males and females. However, males received larger fines and longer periods of license disqualification. Comparisons for reoffending and non-reoffending revealed that males, drivers aged 14–17 years of age and 18 to 20 years of age, and inner regional drivers were more likely to reoffend.

Conclusions: There were limited differences between females and males or recidivists and nonrecidivists at first conviction. Convictions for drink driving may provide an opportunity for early alcohol intervention with Indigenous young drivers (<20 years) because it is likely to be an individual's first alcohol-related conviction.     

Self-regulation of driving speed among distracted drivers: An application of driver behavioral adaptation theory

Objective: The adaptive behavior of mobile phone–distracted drivers has been a topic of much discussion in the recent literature. Both simulator and naturalistic studies suggest that distracted drivers generally select lower driving speeds; however, speed adaptation is not observed among all drivers, and the mechanisms of speed selection are not well understood. The aim of this research was to apply a driver behavioral adaptation model to investigate the speed adaptation of mobile phone–distracted drivers.

Methods: The speed selection behavior of drivers was observed in 3 phone conditions including baseline (no conversation) and hands-free and handheld phone conversations in a high-fidelity driving simulator. Speed adaptation in each phone condition was modeled as a function of secondary task demand and self-reported personal/psychological characteristics with a system of seemingly unrelated equations (SURE) accounting for potential correlations due to repeated measures experiment design.

Results: Speed adaptation is similar between hands-free and handheld phone conditions, but the predictors of speed adaptation vary across the phone conditions. Though perceived workload of secondary task demand, self-efficacy, attitude toward safety, and driver demographics were significant predictors of speed adaptation in the handheld condition, drivers' familiarity with the hands-free interface, attitude toward safety, and sensation seeking were significant predictors in the hands-free condition. Drivers who reported more positive safety attitudes selected lower driving speeds while using phones.

Conclusion: This research confirmed that behavioral adaptation models are suitable for explaining speed adaptation of mobile phone distracted drivers, and future research could be focused on further theoretical refinement.     

Effects of rearview cameras and rear parking sensors on police-reported backing crashes

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of rearview cameras, rear parking sensors, and both systems combined in preventing police-reported backing crashes.

Methods: Negative binomial regression was used to compare rates of police-reported backing crash involvements per insured vehicle year in 22 U.S. states during 2009–2014 between passenger vehicle models with backing technologies and the same vehicle models where the optional systems were not purchased, controlling for other factors affecting crash risk. Rearview cameras were examined from four automakers, rear parking sensors from 2 automakers, and both systems combined from a single automaker.

Results: Rearview cameras reduced backing crash involvement rates by 17%. Reductions were larger for drivers 70 and older (36%) than for drivers younger than 70 (16%); however, estimates for older and younger drivers did not differ significantly from one another. The Buick Lucerne's rear parking sensor system reduced backing crash involvement rates significantly by 34%, but the reduction for Mercedes-Benz vehicles fit with a sensor system was small and not statistically significant. When averaged between the 2 automakers, effects were significantly larger for drivers 70 and older (38% reduction) than for drivers younger than 70 (1% increase); effects were significant for older but not younger drivers. Backing crash involvement rates were 13% lower among Mercedes-Benz vehicles with a rearview camera and parking sensors than among vehicles without, but this finding was not significant.

Discussion: Rearview cameras are effective in preventing police-reported backing crashes. Effects of rear parking sensors are less straightforward; it is unclear whether the Buick Lucerne system's benefits are due to the older age of its drivers, characteristics of the vehicle or system, or a combination. Systems may be especially beneficial to older drivers who might have limitations that make backing challenging. Although effect estimates did not differ significantly between older and younger drivers for both system types, the magnitude of the differences was large and the pattern of results was consistent across 6 of the 7 systems examined. When rear visibility systems become required equipment on new passenger vehicles in 2018, rearview cameras can be expected to prevent 1 in 6 backing crashes reported to police that involve equipped vehicles.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of vegetation change in agricultural landscapes: A case study of two brigalow (Acacia harpophylla) landscapes in Queensland, Australia

The majority of landscapes around the world have been modified or transformed by human activities to meet the needs of human societies. The loss of native vegetation for agricultural development affects the sustainability of growing proportion of the world's ecosystems. Factors such as land tenure, roads and agricultural intensification, together with biophysical properties, have been cited as drivers of deforestation. This paper combined analysis of the historical drivers of change with analysis of the trends of deforestation since 1945 in two brigalow landscapes (100,000 ha) in sub-tropical Australia. A selection of these drivers were then applied at a property-level (1000 ha) to test their influence on native vegetation retention. Regression trees were used to identify significant human drivers and biophysical properties, and then a generalised linear modelling approach was used to quantify the effect of these factors on the proportion of remnant native vegetation. Results showed that until the mid-20th century, government policies to intensify settlement did not result in increased agricultural production, but since this time, landscape change has been rapid, and has particularly affected ecosystems on fertile clay soils. Although socio-economic factors were critical in driving deforestation, after 60 years of agricultural intensification by far the most significant explanatory variable determining the proportion of native vegetation retained at a property scale was the suitability of the soil for agriculture. Property size was an important secondary influence. The results were not, by and large, consistent with other studies of landscape change and suggest that generalised principles explaining deforestation may be elusive. Solutions to the problem of over-clearance of native vegetation, therefore, need to be tailored to the specific regional situations encountered.     

Participatory Bayesian network modeling to understand driving factors of land-use change decisions: insights from two case studies in northeast Madagascar

ABSTRACT

Forest frontiers worldwide reveal trade-offs that are key in mitigating global change. In the forest frontiers of northeast Madagascar, land-use changes result from decisions made by smallholder farmers. In the past, subsistence needs led to increasing shifting cultivation, resulting in forest degradation and deforestation. This study focuses on investigating the role of locally determined factors in land-use change decisions in the forest frontier context. Therefore, we developed a Bayesian network-based land-use decision model that represents the causalities between factors influencing land-use decisions and takes into account local decision-makers’ knowledge. The approach is applied in two comparative case studies in northeast Madagascar. Results show that farmers mostly aim at extending the cultivation of cash crops. These results and the causal mechanisms disentangled for the forest frontier of northeast Madagascar help understand change mechanisms and hence, support decision-making to attain the Sustainable Development Goals.     

Driving safety improves after individualized training: An RCT involving older drivers in an urban area

Objective: This study aimed to reproduce the results of a previous investigation on the safety benefits of individualized training for older drivers. We modified our method to address validity and generalizability issues.

Methods: Older drivers were randomly assigned to one of the 3 arms: (1) education alone, (2) education?+?on road training, and (3) education?+?on road?+?simulator training. Older drivers were recruited from a larger urban community. At the pre- and posttests (separated by 4 to 8 weeks) participants followed driving directions using a Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation system.

Results: Our findings support the positive influence of individualized on-road training for urban-dwelling older drivers. Overall, driving safety improved among drivers who received on-road training over those who were only exposed to an education session, F(1, 40) = 11.66, P = .001 (26% reduction in total unsafe driving actions [UDAs]). Statistically significant improvements were observed on observation UDAs (e.g., scanning at intersections, etc.), compliance UDAs (e.g., incomplete stop), and procedural UDAs (e.g., position in lane).

Conclusion: This study adds to the growing evidence base in support of individualized older driver training to optimize older drivers’ safety and promote continued safe driving.     

Using Temporal Coherence to Determine the Response to Climate Change in Boreal Shield Lakes

Climate change is expected to have important impacts on aquatic ecosystems. On the Boreal Shield, mean annual air temperatures are expected to increase 2 to 4°C over the next 50 years. An important challenge is to predict how changes in climate and climate variability will impact natural systems so that sustainable management policies can be implemented. To predict responses to complex ecosystem changes associated with climate change, we used long-term biotic databases to evaluate how important elements of the biota in Boreal Shield lakes have responded to past fluctuations in climate. Our long-term records span a two decade period where there have been unusually cold years and unusually warm years. We used coherence analyses to test for regionally operating controls on climate, water temperature, pH, and plankton richness and abundance in three regions across Ontario: the Experimental Lakes Area, Sudbury, and Dorset. Inter-annual variation in air temperature was similar among regions, but there was a weak relationship among regions for precipitation. While air temperature was closely related to lake surface temperatures in each of the regions, there were weak relationships between lake surface temperature and richness or abundance of the plankton. However, inter-annual changes in lake chemistry (i.e., pH) were correlated with some biotic variables. In some lakes in Sudbury and Dorset, pH was dependent on extreme events. For example, El Nino related droughts resulted in acidification pulses in some lakes that influenced phytoplankton and zooplankton richness. These results suggest that there can be strong heterogeneity in lake ecosystem responses within and across regions.     

Characteristics and predictors of recidivist drink-drivers

Objective: The current study compared characteristics of nonrecidivist versus recidivist drink-drivers and of recidivists in their first versus second appearance at Back on Track (BOT), the remedial measures program for impaired drivers in Ontario, Canada.

Methods: Information from 59,134 convicted drivers who participated in BOT between 2000 and 2010 was examined to identify drivers who completed the program a second time following reconviction.

Results: A total of 586 recidivists were identified. Compared to nonrecidivist drivers, recidivists at first attendance were more likely to be male and had higher scores on measures of alcohol dependence and adverse legal consequences of substance use. Compared to nonrecidivist drivers, recidivists at second attendance were significantly older, had a higher income, were more likely to be retired, and were less likely to be employed part-time. They had fewer legal problems. Recidivists reported fewer drinking days and fewer drinks per occasion but greater use of benzodiazepines than nonrecidivists and had higher scores on a measure of future risk of alcohol- and drug-related problems. Comparison of recidivists' characteristics at first versus second attendance confirmed many of these findings, with second-time recidivists reporting fewer drinks per drinking day and greater use of benzodiazepines and having higher scores on a measure of future substance use problems than first-time recidivists.

Conclusions: Results suggest that identification of drivers at increased risk of recidivism may be possible at first program attendance by examining indicators of increased alcohol-related problems. In addition, recidivists appear to show a greater readiness to change at second attendance. Implications for remedial program development and recommendations for future research are discussed.