Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

Performance improvement of airfoils for wind blade with the groove

This study was a basic one to explore how much the aerodynamic characteristics of wind blade improve. The extent of improvement according to the shapes of groove placed on the surface of airfoil (NACA0015) was analyzed through computational analysis. A commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, the ANSYS Fluent 13, was used in this study. In this study, regarding with the positions and shapes of groove, the end of groove was placed at a certain distance (length, l) from both the front and back of separation starting point, the depth and the width were designated as h and d respectively. Analysis was conducted at the 7° angle of attack under the following conditions; the thickness (δ) of boundary layer to the depth (h) of groove ratio (h/δ) 0.6–1.0, the depth (h) of groove to the width (d) of groove ratio (h/d) 0.1–1.4, and the length (l) between the end of groove and separation point to the thickness (δ) of boundary layer ratio (l/δ) ?0.5–0.5. Among these conditions, the best improvement of lift to drag ratio, standing at 15.3%, was under h/δ = 1.0, h/d = 0.12, and l/δ = –0.5 (7° AOA, Re = 360k). In addition, throughout the range of angle of attack, 2–14°, lift to drag ratio improved by 0.8%, 5.1%, 3.2%, and 1.8% each when Reynolds numbers were 280k, 360k, 450k, and 530k. It is also confirmed that the shape of groove contributed to recovering velocity around airfoil wall and the lift to drag ratio improvements by groove were maintained at the given range of Reynolds number and around the angle of attack, 7°.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.     

Modeling urban solar energy with high spatiotemporal resolution: A case study in Toronto,Canada

This research presents a method to determine the maximum potential for the capturing of solar radiation on the rooftop of buildings in an urban environment. This involves the modeling of solar energy potential and comparison to historical building energy demand profiles through the use of 3-D solar simulation software tools and geographic information systems (GIS). The objective is to accurately identify the amount of surface area that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and to estimate the hourly PV electricity generation potential of existing building rooftops in an urban environment. This study demonstrates a viable approach for modeling urban solar energy and offers valuable information for electricity distributors, policy makers, and urban energy planners to facilitate the substantial design of a green built environment. The developed methodology is comprised of three main sections: (1) determination of suitable rooftop area, (2) determination of the amount of incident solar radiation available per rooftop, and (3) estimation of hourly solar PV electricity generation potential. A case study was performed using this method for Ryerson University, located in Toronto, Canada. It was found that solar PV could supply up to 19% of the study area’s electricity demands during peak consumption hours. The potential benefits of solar PV was also estimated based upon hourly greenhouse gas emission intensity factors as well as Time-of-Use (TOU) savings through the Ontario Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program, which allows for better representation of the positive impacts of solar technologies.     

宁夏地区光伏发电环境效益分析及建模

在阐述了宁夏地区光伏发电发展的优势及发展现状的基础上,分析了光伏发电开发利用对宁夏生态环境产生的积极和消极的影响,并为降低消极影响提出了相应的对策;为了定量直观的评估光伏发电积极影响和消极影响所产生的环境效益,分别建立了节能减排、防风固沙和土地增值、景观效应、植被恢复费用、噪声污染超标罚款、光污染费用等价值模型及光伏发电总的生态环境效益价值模型;最后以中电投宁夏能源铝中卫香山光伏电站为例进行计算验证,结果表明模型的合理性和准确性,同时光伏电站的节能减排效益显著。相对于传统的火力发电,表现了优越的环境效益。     

印刷环节挥发性有机物无组织排放特征测定研究

对使用溶剂型油墨的凹版印刷设备和使用水性油墨的柔版印刷设备无组织排放的挥发性有机物(VOCs)浓度进行了实际监测,并采用计算流体动力学模拟无组织排放VOCs的收集效率。结果表明：(1)使用溶剂型油墨的凹版连续印刷过程非甲烷总烃(NMHC)最高均值达到5 975.67 mg/m³,约为使用水性油墨的柔版印刷(191.67 mg/m³)的31.2倍。虽然使用水性油墨可明显降低NMHC的排放,但其操作空间的浓度依然存在超过《工作场所有害因素职业接触限值第1部分：化学有害因素》(GBZ 2.1—2019)的现象。(2)印刷车间应该设置专门的调墨室,能缓解印刷车间内挥发性污染气体浓度的波动。(3)计算流体动力学模拟显示,设置合理的集气罩可有效降低VOCs的无组织排放,收集效率为70%～75%。     

An application of a modified theory of planned behavior model to investigate adolescents’ job safety knowledge,norms, attitude and intention to enact workplace safety and health skills

Introduction: For many reasons, including a lack of adequate safety training and education, U.S. adolescents experience a higher rate of job-related injury compared to adult workers. Widely used social-psychological theories in public health research and practice, such as the theory of planned behavior, may provide guidance for developing and evaluating school-based interventions to prepare adolescents for workplace hazards and risks. Method: Using a structural equation modeling approach, the current study explores whether a modified theory of planned behavior model provides insight on 1,748 eighth graders’ occupational safety and health (OSH) attitude, subjective norm, self-efficacy and behavioral intention, before and after receiving instruction on a free, national young worker safety and health curriculum. Reliability estimates for the measures were produced and direct and indirect associations between knowledge and other model constructs assessed. Results: Overall, the findings align with the theory of planned behavior. The structural equation model adequately fit the data; most path coefficients are statistically significant and knowledge has indirect effects on behavioral intention. Confirmatory factor analyses suggest that the knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy, and behavioral intention measures each reflect a unique dimension (reliability estimates ≥0.86), while the subjective norm measure did not perform adequately. Conclusion: The findings presented provide support for using behavioral theory (specifically a modified theory of planned behavior) to investigate adolescents’ knowledge, perceptions, and behavioral intention to engage in safe and healthful activities at work, an understanding of which may contribute to reducing the downstream burden of injury on this vulnerable population—the future workforce. Practical application: Health behavior theories, commonly used in the social and behavioral sciences, have utility and provide guidance for developing and evaluating OSH interventions, including those aimed at preventing injuries and promoting the health and safety of adolescent workers in the U.S., who are injured at higher rates than are adults.     

隧道救援站通风网络优化设计及人员疏散研究*

为确定铁路隧道救援站最佳通风结构,对烟道布置提出合理建议,采用计算流体力学（CFD）的方法,对铁路隧道救援站通风网络进行优化设计。同时,采用模拟计算的方法对救援站人员疏散进行模拟分析,确定救援横通道布置及防护门开度设置的合理性。研究结果表明:在同等通风参数工况设置下,采用多节点排烟竖井结构后各救援横通道流量分配更均匀,救援站压力平衡性更好,通风效率可提升15%;通过疏散模拟证实,在长560 m的紧急救援站范围内设置10条疏散横通道,横通道设1.7 m宽的逃生门能够满足疏散要求。     

System safety assessment using safety entropy

Safety assessment has a primary role in hazardous operations. Most studies on safety assessment focus on risk and accident modeling, in which safety is absent. These top-down methods are highly dependent on the occurred accidents to establish accidental scenarios, which may make the assessment approach lagging behind the evolving modern systems. Moreover, this “special to general” logic is scientifically suspect in safety assessment. There is a call for the development of safety assessment methods in the presence of system safety to complement risk-focused safety analysis. These methods should provide a framework based on a bottom-up approach to examine system safety from the operational perspective. This paper has attempted to provide a potential solution. In particular, a novel concept of safety entropy is proposed to integrate with The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which is used to form the qualitative understanding of a system. A formula consisted of safety entropy, functional conformability, and system complexity has been established to determine the spontaneity of the safety state-changing process. The proposed method is applied to the safety assessment of a propane feed-control system. The results show the applicability of the method. Nevertheless, the model still needs to be further improved to fulfill better support for safety-related decision problems.     

基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识*

为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）、事故树分析（FTA）等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模（HHM）对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。