Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Exploring system interactions for building resilience within coastal environments and communities

This paper focuses on identifying examples of first-order system interactions, which make important contributions to building coastal resilience for coastal zone management. This discussion is based on an application of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to a case-study analysis of coastal management in South Australia. The study suggests that cross-scale interactions and informal relationships within and between users and managers are key interactions defining resilience outcomes within the current system. A significant constraint on improving resilience was the lack of evaluative criteria for identifying sustainable forms of system behaviour. The paper argues that resilience is a function of a normative statement on the characteristics desirable in the functioning system. Analyses of coastal resilience, which facilitate greater understanding of the range of complexities in coastal behaviour, are therefore central to gaining the most useful insights into the options and pathways for building more sustainable coastal futures.     

Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management

The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning.     

Use of an Airborne Lidar System to Model Plant Species Composition and Diversity of Mediterranean Oak Forests

Abstract: Airborne lidar is a remote‐sensing tool of increasing importance in ecological and conservation research due to its ability to characterize three‐dimensional vegetation structure. If different aspects of plant species diversity and composition can be related to vegetation structure, landscape‐level assessments of plant communities may be possible. We examined this possibility for Mediterranean oak forests in southern Portugal, which are rich in biological diversity but also threatened. We compared data from a discrete, first‐and‐last return lidar data set collected for 31 plots of cork oak (Quercus suber) and Algerian oak (Quercus canariensis) forest with field data to test whether lidar can be used to predict the vertical structure of vegetation, diversity of plant species, and community type. Lidar‐ and field‐measured structural data were significantly correlated (up to r= 0.85). Diversity of forest species was significantly associated with lidar‐measured vegetation height (R²= 0.50, p < 0.001). Clustering and ordination of the species data pointed to the presence of 2 main forest classes that could be discriminated with an accuracy of 89% on the basis of lidar data. Lidar can be applied widely for mapping of habitat and assessments of habitat condition (e.g., in support of the European Species and Habitats Directive [92/43/EEC]). However, particular attention needs to be paid to issues of survey design: density of lidar points and geospatial accuracy of ground‐truthing and its timing relative to acquisition of lidar data.     

气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应影响的模拟

为了揭示气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL的耦合模型SSiB4T/TRIFFID模拟了西南山区长江上游梭磨河流域森林水文效应对气温变化的响应,分析了气温变化对植被不同演替阶段的流域总径流和总蒸发以及冠层截流蒸发、植被蒸腾和土壤蒸发的影响。结果表明,（1）梭磨河流域森林（常绿针叶林）蒸腾与草和灌木差异小,森林蒸腾潜热比草和灌木仅高1~4 W.m-2,森林冠层截留蒸发高于草和灌木,但土壤蒸发明显低于草和灌木覆盖,森林覆盖流域总蒸发低于草和灌木覆盖甚至低于裸土蒸发,因此增加了流域总径流量,但森林增加径流的作用随土壤蒸发的减小而减小。（2）气温减小1℃将通过减小森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加流域总径流量的作用增加;相反,气温增加将增加森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加总径流量的作用减小。（3）当温度增加4℃,由于森林总蒸发较草和灌木明显增加,对于较高的土壤蒸发,森林增加总径流量的作用已不明显;对于较低的土壤蒸发,森林减小了流域总径流量。     

An approach to calculating allowable watershed pollutant loads

To improve the management of discharge pollutants loads in the reservoirs’ watershed, an approach of the allowable pollutants loads calculation and its allocation, based on the water environment model, was proposed. Establishment of the approach framework was described at first. Under the guidance of this framework, two major steps were as follows: modeling and scenario analysis were involved and should be applied to support the decision of discharge loads management; Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model was selected as the kernel model in this framework. In modeling step, spatial discretization for establishing cell map in model, data preprocessing, parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis (which is considered as the significantly relevant factor of the margin of safety (MOS)), were conducted. As a result of the research, the model-based approach presented as a combination of estimation and precise calculation, which contributed to scenario analysis step. Some integrated modules, such as scenario simulation, result analysis and plan optimization were implemented as cycles in the scenario analysis. Finally, allowable pollutant loads under various conditions were calculated. The Chaihe Reservoir in Liaoning Province, China was used as a case study for an application of the approach described above. Results of the Chaihe reservoir water quality simulation, show good agreement with field data and demonstrated that the approach used in the present study provide an efficient and appropriate methodology for pollutant load allocation.     

基于Blender的矿山虚拟现实快速构建与实现

为了实现矿山三维实体模型和虚拟现实的快速搭建与实现,分析了当前数字化矿山建模可移植性差、扩展性不灵活、开发难度大的缺陷 ,提出了一种矿山三维模型及虚拟现实体系的自动构建方法:基于Blender开源软件提供的建模平台,利用Python语言编写矿山实体的表达方法 与生成算法;利用矿山基础信息,实现了对矿山井巷、矿体等三维实体模型的自动、快速构建,并以矿山井巷工程、矿体以及地表模型等实体 模型的构建为例进行了演示;利用Blender脚本实现对三维实体模型的快速渲染,初步建立了矿山虚拟现实环境与仿真系统,并利用驱动内核实 现虚拟情景的演示。结果表明,该方法具有开发快捷、要求低等特点,为数字化矿山建设提供了一种新的思路。     

长山河水质评价及变化趋势分析

以2015 ～2019年长山河4个水质监测站的监测数据为基础,采用综合水质标识指数法对其历年水质进行评价,利用季节性kendall检验法对各监测断面的高锰酸盐指数,氨氮,总磷等3个监测指标变化趋势进行分析.结果 表明:长山河各断面的综合水质均达到或优于水功能区目标要求,水质污染总体呈下降趋势,其中长山河大桥和长山闸一号...     

Special needs hurricane shelters and the ageing population: development of a methodology and a case study application

Recent experience of hurricanes, particularly in the southeast United States, has heightened awareness of the multifaceted nature of and the challenges to effective disaster relief planning. One key element of this planning is providing adequate shelter at secure locations for people who evacuate. Some of these individuals will have ‘special needs’, yet there is little research on the relationship with shelter space. This study designed a geographic information systems‐based network optimisation methodology for the siting of special needs hurricane relief shelters, with a focus on the transportation component. It sought to find new locations for shelters that maximise accessibility by vulnerable populations, given capacity constraints, concentrating on the ageing population. The framework was implemented in a medium‐sized metropolitan statistical area in the state of Florida where data suggest a possible deficit in special needs shelter space. The study analysed options for increasing special needs shelter capacity, while considering potential uncertainties in transportation network availability.     

Should all disaster risks be reduced? A perspective from the systems concept of the edge of chaos

The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.