基于BP神经网络的煤层自燃预测

在全面分析影响煤层自燃因素的基础上,建立了煤层自燃预测的人工神经网络模型.应用该模型对某煤田的多个煤层样本进行了训练和预测,网络经过10次训练后,误差达到设定的最小值,6次预测测试中最大误差仅为0.027 8,最小的为0.000 1.研究表明,该模型精度较高,可用于预测煤层自燃的实际应用.     

流域尺度的营养物质输移模型研究综述

近几十年来,水体富营养化已成为许多国家密切关注的环境问题,氮、磷等湖泊富营养化营养元素与流域的点源、非点源排放密切相关。随着点源治理水平的逐步提高,非点源污染的比重和危害将逐步增大。对流域的营养物质输移进行数值模拟对于揭示我国浅水湖泊富营养化的机制有重要的意义。国内外对这类模型已经有相当多的研究,形成了种类繁多的各类非点源污染模型。从湖泊营养盐外源输移的研究角度出发,分析了流域尺度的营养盐输移模拟机理性模型的结构特征,并对非点源污染模型在国内外的研究概况、模型的研究动态、主要模型的功能、结构及其特点和发展趋势进行了多视角的综述。     

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso–Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.     

Key considerations and challenges in the application of social-network research for environmental decision making

Attempts to better understand the social context in which conservation and environmental decisions are made has led to increased interest in human social networks. To improve the use of social-network analysis in conservation, we reviewed recent studies in the literature in which such methods were applied. In our review, we looked for problems in research design and analysis that limit the utility of network analysis. Nineteen of 55 articles published from January 2016 to June 2019 exhibited at least 1 of the following problems: application of analytical methods inadequate or sensitive to incomplete network data; application of statistical approaches that ignore dependency in the network; or lack of connection between the theoretical base, research question, and choice of analytical techniques. By drawing attention to these specific areas of concern and highlighting research frontiers and challenges, including causality, network dynamics, and new approaches, we responded to calls for increasing the rigorous application of social science in conservation.     

The use of nanovermiculite catalyst in the study of removal of the organic load and degradation of atrazine via ozone process in RPB reactor

Abstract

The main objective of this study is the degradation of a synthetic solution of atrazine by a modified vermiculite catalyzed ozonation, in a rotating packed bed (RPB) reactor. A 0.5?L RPB reactor was used to perform the experiments, using a Central Composite Design (CCD) response surface to construct the quadratic model based on the factors: pH, catalyst concentration and reactor rotation frequency. The response variable was the removal of the organic load measured in terms of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD). After the complete quadratic model was constructed through the response surface, the COD degradation process had an optimal removal of 41% under the following conditions: pH 8.0, rotation of 1150?rpm and catalyst concentration 0.66?g L^?1.     

Why bees are critical for achieving sustainable development

Reductions in global bee populations are threatening the pollination benefits to both the planet and people. Whilst the contribution of bee pollination in promoting sustainable development goals through food security and biodiversity is widely acknowledged, a range of other benefits provided by bees has yet to be fully recognised. We explore the contributions of bees towards achieving the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our insights suggest that bees potentially contribute towards 15 of the 17 SDGs and a minimum of 30 SDG targets. We identify common themes in which bees play an essential role, and suggest that improved understanding of bee contributions to sustainable development is crucial for ensuring viable bee systems.     

麻黄碱在斑马鱼体内的器官特异性蓄积及毒代动力学

麻黄碱(ephedrine,EPH)是一种生物碱,用于减轻感冒、过敏性鼻炎、鼻炎及鼻窦炎引起的鼻充血症状,控制支气管哮喘等,同时还是制造毒品冰毒的原料.EPH已经在地表水中广泛检出,并可能对水生生物甚至生态系统产生不利影响.但目前,EPH在水生生物中的摄取、器官分配和毒代动力学过程还没有受到关注.本研究中将斑马鱼(Da...     

Arsenic forensic modeling leads to decommission of downgradient/off-site monitoring wells

Arsenic was detected at concentrations exceeding the regulatory limit of 0.010 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in an off-site bedrock monitoring well downgradient of a former electroplating facility in Merrimack, New Hampshire. The bedrock underlying the site is associated with naturally occurring high concentrations of groundwater arsenic. Geochemical modeling was used to evaluate whether the arsenic in bedrock groundwater at the off-site monitoring location was site-related or naturally occurring. The hydrogeochemical signature of the off-site bedrock well did not resemble signatures of site-impacted bedrock wells. Multiple lines of evidence support that the arsenic observed in off-site bedrock groundwater was not a result of adverse impacts from site-related groundwater contamination.     

A safety analysis of roundabouts and turbo roundabouts based on Petri nets

Objective: In this work, a roundabout and a turbo roundabout model are compared and previous modeling with continuous Petri nets and safety are analyzed through indicators of complexity. Petri nets are a graphic and mathematical representation that allow a faithful modeling of urban systems.

Method: The methodology has been designed for the transformation of a real system to small subgraphs that represent the maneuvers in roundabouts, approximated as roads and lanes of incorporation. Places within the roundabout have been located and defined as continuous places from their influence and visibility toward adjacent conditions. The transitions have been modeled by time and inhibitory arcs, which represent priorities and areas where drivers must pay attention. The created networks represent a faithful model of vehicle flow trajectories in the roundabouts.

Results: The methodology is applied to the same real road intersection. The case study is a recent transformation from roundabout to turbo roundabout. The roundabout network complexity is corroborated by a greater number of entries and exits that lead to each roundabout place (reflected in the maneuvers that can be performed) and a greater number of inhibiting arcs. In most of the turbo roundabout places, the driver’s only option is reduced to occupying next place. The possibility of choosing between several places supposes a greater trajectory intersection and an increased time for decision making. The only situation where the complexity is the same between both systems is when a vehicle accesses the inner lane of the roundabout from the left lane on a single-lane road. The main maneuvers causing accidents have been modeled and their solution in a turbo roundabout is presented.

Conclusions: The reduced complexity of the turbo roundabout is due to the strict limitations in lane changes, turning turbo roundabouts into a safer model: A lower number of possible movements that can be performed by drivers and a smaller number of trajectories with collision risk. Petri nets have proven to be perfectly applicable to the representation of traffic circular systems (such as roundabouts and turbo roundabouts) and to measure the complexity and security of the system.     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.