黑河流域磷迁移转化过程连续模拟研究

以西安市的主要供水水源黑河流域为例,在Matlab软件辅助下,使用蓄满产流模型、逆高斯分布汇流模型、水沙关系模型以及澳大利亚学者Viney所提出的营养物迁移转化模型对黑河流域1981～1990年磷的迁移转化过程进行了连续模拟,模拟了磷的输出情况,预测了黑河流域磷污染负荷量.结果表明:模拟结果符合磷素流失的一般规律,年径流量大的年份,从流域输出的磷素也较多,反之,则较小;对磷的连续模拟结果与实测插补延长后总磷年负荷量的相对误差基本上在±30%以内,结果较合理,由此表明该法可用于黑河流域磷素迁移转化的连续模拟.同时,本文模型只是流域非点源污染连续模拟的初步尝试,尚需进行进一步检验、改进和完善.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

Safer Truck Front Design for Pedestrian Impacts*

Truck and bus frontal impacts account for a major proportion of pedestrian fatalities in many less motorized countries. To understand this phenomenon, we have collected injury data on pedestrian impacts with buses and trucks and performed computer simulations to identify critical design parameters at 15–45 km/h impact velocities for further investigation. A male dummy which was scaled to fifty percentile Indian dimensions has been used for simulations using MADYMO. Bumper height, bumper offset and grille inclination affect the pelvis and thorax forces and Head Injury Criterion values critically. Bumper width has less effect. Simulations were performed to optimize for the above–mentioned three parameters. Changes in front geometric parameters reduce injury to the upper body and head below safety limits for the existing force–displacement properties but do not affect leg injuries significantly. Hence bumpers need to be made less stiff. Injury data shows that pedestrians also sustain tibia fractures in bus/truck impacts in apparent low velocity impacts. The computer modeling does not offer adequate explanation for this phenomenon. These simulations confirm that it is theoretically possible to make truck/bus fronts safer for pedestrians in impacts up to 35 km/h.     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Pollution Control Policies and Natural Resource Dynamics: A Theoretical Analysis

Policies for the management of natural resources and the resources themselves interact to form complex systems. In this paper, we present a highly simplified model that can be used to study the general features of those systems. The model has three state variables, the abundance of the resource, environmental pollution, and the capital devoted to pollution control. We analyse it graphically using the singular perturbation approach. Two modes of behavior are possible; stationary and cyclic. When the abundance of the resources varies cyclically, the length of the period of resource scarcity depends on population size, economic activity, pollution per unit of output, and policy constraints. We distinguish between two classes of policies, one in which decision-makers base their investments in pollution control capital on the abundance of the resource, and another in which those decisions depend on the amount of pollution. We show that policies based on the observation of pollution are safer than those based on resource abundance, because in the latter case, small changes in policy variables can lead much more easily to a collapse of the resource. Increases in population size, even when accompanied by an equiproportional increase in the pollution control budget can lead to a change from stationary to cyclic behavior, especially where policies are based on resource abundance.     

URBAN INFLUENCE ON PHOSPHORUS AND SEDIMENT LOADING OF WEST POINT LAKE,GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: West Point Lake is a 10,360 ha mainstream impoundment of the Chattahoochee River located 95 kilometers downstream of Atlanta, Georgia. Origins and magnitude of external total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) loads from the West Point Lake basin were estimated over a one-year period. Partitioning the drainage basin allowed the sources of these loads to be determined. The upper subbasin area, from Franklin, Georgia, to the headwaters of the Chattahoochee River, contributed 96 percent of the discharge and 97 percent of the TP and TSS loads into West Point Lake. The lower subbasin area, from Franklin to West Point Lake dam, only contributed 3 percent of the TP and TSS loads. Ninety-one percent and 87 percent of the TP and TSS loads, respectively, from the upper subbasin originated from the Atlanta area. Point sources discharged 70 percent and 3 percent of the upper subbasin TP and TSS loads, respectively. A large portion (66 percent) of the TP from the upper subbasin was in the bioavailable form.     

CO-KRIGING TO INCORPORATE SCREENING DATA: HUDSON RIVER SEDIMENT PCBs1

ABSTRACT: Kriging methods of geostatistical analysis provide valuable techniques for analysis of sediment contamination problems, including interpolation of concentration maps from point data and estimation of global mean concentrations. Sample collection efforts frequently include preliminary screening data of considerably more extensive coverage than the laboratory analyses on which estimation is usually based. How should these be incorporated in kriging? Screening and laboratory analysis constitute two separate estimates of the same spatial field but of very different characteristics. A modified version of co-kriging is developed to include the imprecise screening information in the analysis of contaminant distribution. Use of the method is demonstrated on a data set of sediment PCB samples from the Upper Hudson River, for which preliminary categorical mass spectrometry screening was used to select a smaller set of samples for gas chromatograph analysis. The method is widely applicable to many situations of contaminant and natural resource estimation.     

A COMPARISON OF HAND- AND SPLINE-DRAWN PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR MOUNTAINOUS MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Average annual precipitation for the period 1961–1990 was estimated for a mountainous region in Montana with a Laplacian thin-plate spline (ANUSPLIN) and compared to a hand-drawn map. Input data included latitude, longitude, and elevation from a three-arc-second U.S. Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model of the Bozeman and Billings 1 × 2 topographic quadrangles and precipitation data at 96 stations. The two maps are similar in appearance. Digital comparison of the two maps with ARC/INFO's Grid tools shows that mean annual precipitation for the hand-contoured map is 22.9 inches and for the ANUSPLIN map is 23.7 inches. Of the 5,760,000 cells, 53 percent showed no difference between ANUSPLIN and hand-drawn maps; 19 percent showed a two-inch difference, and 28 percent showed more than 2 inches difference. Input data and model output at the same location are not different (standard deviation 1.77, p-value 0.76). Hand-drawn maps show two inches more precipitation during the 1961–90 period than during the 1941–1970 period. Similarly, measured data at 73 sites for the period 1961–1990 are on average 2.4 inches higher than the same stations during the 1941–1970 period. The difference is significant (p-value > 0.0001).     

NON-ZERO LOWER LIMIT IN LOW FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS?1

ABSTRACT: The implications of fitting distributions with non-zero lower limits to low flow data are examined. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to annual minimum flow series from 60 long term stations in Canada. The relations between the estimated lower limit and three sampling variables (skewness, smallest, and largest observations) were investigated. The lower limit strongly depends on the sample skewness; it varies directly with the sample skewness, which in turn is highly influenced by the largest observation. For a given skewness, the value of the estimated lower limit is determined by the value of the smallest observation. Therefore, the lower limit cannot be accurately determined, and the resulting low flow estimates will be either too small or too high.