应急撤离建模研究的现状、问题与发展趋势

分析以往的突发事件应急撤离决策过多依赖决策者主观判断的问题,提出通过构建应急撤离模型为决策者提供更客观的辅助决策信息,并阐述了应急撤离建模过程涉及的主要要素。通过对3种主要应急撤离建模方法——宏观、微观和中观的撤离建模过程的详细介绍和分析,综观了当前应急撤离建模的研究现状。在该基础上,研讨每种建模方法的特点、适用范围以及存在的主要问题,并针对这些问题,给出可能的解决方法和未来的发展方向。归纳应急撤离建模研究的成果,提出在实际应急撤离建模工作中应注意的问题。     

泥石流灾害风险评价方法及其应用研究

探讨泥石流灾害风险评价的理论和方法;利用已有的泥石流灾害资料,建立泥石流风险评价体系和实施流程;提出风险评价的定量计算方法;结合遥感和地理信息系统技术,完成了云南省昆明市东川区泥石流灾害的定量风险评价。研究结果与泥石流实际分布和调查资料基本一致,表明所提出的泥石流灾害风险评价的理论与方法具有一定的理论价值和现实意义,可以为泥石流灾害风险评价和防灾减灾管理提供有益的科学依据。     

Regulating overabundant ungulate populations: an example for elk in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

In many areas of the world, populations of native ungulates have become so abundant that they are believed to be harming vegetation and disrupting ecosystem function. Methods for controlling overabundance populations include culling animals from the population and controlling fertility using contraceptives. However, understanding the feasibility these alternatives requires insight into their long-term effects on populations. We constructed a simulation model to evaluate options for regulating elk populations in and around Rocky Mountain National Park and used the model to compare different treatment options. Methods were evaulated with respect to the time required to reduce the population to a target level, the number of animals treated and/or culled and the risk of extinction. We contrasted culling with lifetime-effect contraceptives and yearlong contraceptives. Lifetime contraceptives required treating the fewest animals to maintain the population at desired targets. However, this approach also causes the greatest population variability and potential risk of extinction. Yearlong contraceptives required treatment of dramatically more animals but had essentially no extinction risk whereas culling produced intermediate levels of both extinction risk and number of animals treated. These results characterize the risks and benefits of alternative control strategies for overabundant wildlife. They emerge from a modeling approach that can be broadly useful in helping managers in choose between alternatives for regulating overabundant wildlife.     

Assessment of a turfgrass sod best management practice on water quality in a suburban watershed

The disposal of manure on agricultural land has caused water quality concerns in many rural watersheds, sometimes requiring state environmental agencies to conduct total maximum daily load (TMDL) assessments of stream nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). A best management practice (BMP) has been developed in response to a TMDL that mandates a 50% reduction of annual P load to the North Bosque River (NBR) in central Texas. This BMP exports composted dairy manure P through turfgrass sod from the NBR watershed to urban watersheds. The manure-grown sod releases P slowly and would not require additional P fertilizer for up to 20 years in the receiving watershed. This would eliminate P application to the sod and improve the water quality of urban streams. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used to model a typical suburban watershed that would receive the sod grown with composted dairy manure to assess water quality changes due to this BMP. The SWAT model was calibrated to simulate historical flow and estimated sediment and nutrient loading to Mary's Creek near Fort Worth, Texas. The total P stream loading to Mary's Creek was lower when manure-grown sod was transplanted instead of sod grown with inorganic fertilizers. Flow, sediment and total N yield were the same for both cases at the watershed outlet. The SWAT simulations indicated that the turfgrass BMP can be used effectively to import manure P into an urban watershed and reduce in-stream P levels when compared to sod grown with inorganic fertilizers.     

Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: a system modeling approach

The great majority of China's developing towns will be extensions of already existing villages. With the prospect of hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers projected to leave their villages to become industrial workers in new and expanded towns within the next few years, new challenges will be faced. As expansion and modernization progress, this development moves from the traditional village model that operates not far from resource sustainability to increasingly unsustainable patterns of commerce, urban development, and modern life. With such an unprecedented mass migration and transformation, how can Chinese culture survive? What is to become of the existing million plus agricultural villages? How can these massively unsustainable new industrial towns survive? In the European Commission sponsored research program SUCCESS, researchers worked from the scale of the Chinese village to find viable answers to these questions.     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

离心模型试验技术在环境岩土工程中的应用现状与展望

首先简单介绍了离心模型试验技术的发展状况,然后探讨了其在环境岩土工程中的应用,研究了模型和原型的相似规律,提出了环境岩土工程离心模型试验的发展方向.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Rutherford H., Platt et al. Disasters and Democracy: The Politics of Extreme Natural Events
S., Suri Orissa Disaster: Agony of the Living     

The Accuracy of Mortality Reporting in Displaced Persons Camps During the Post-emergency Phase

For humanitarian organisations, accurate data are essential to identify emerging health problems and determine programme needs. We visited 45 post-emergency phase displaced persons camps and collected three months' mortality data which we compared with organisations' routine mortality reports. Organisations reported 612 deaths and we identified 741 deaths, for a mortality-reporting ratio, defined as the number of organisation-reported deaths divided by the number of investigator-identified deaths, of 83 per cent. For the majority of camps which under-reported deaths, mortality reporting ratios were significantly higher for women than men, and for camps with central mortality registers rather than those without. In the few camps which over-reported deaths, these occurred primarily among children younger than five years of age, probably due to the inclusion of abortions and stillbirths. Despite the overall under-reporting of deaths by humanitarian organisations, the existing health information systems appear to estimate mortality rates adequately in these post-emergency camps. However, organisations should improve the precision and completeness with which they report the characteristics of deaths in order to provide valuable data to target their programmes at the most vulnerable people.