城市河流水质参数空间变异性研究——以苏南某市为例

基于现场的采样数据,结合河流自身特点,应用地质统计学的理论和方法分析了苏南某城市河流水质参数的空间变异规律及其原因。研究结果表明,根据变差函数模型分析,发现研究区河流3个水质参数在一定范围内存在空间相关性;研究区河流的CODMn呈现中南部较高,其他部位相对均匀的趋势,CODMn的空间变异性主要是由居民的日常活动及河道的自身特点引起;研究区河流的TP和NH3-N含量严重超标,水体富营养化程度严重。TP和NH3-N的空间变异性相似,含量较高区域集中在研究区的西南部、东南部和东北部,其空间变异性主要由工业活动和居民日常生活共同作用引起,其中工业活动占主导作用。     

古运河营养元素分布特征及富营养化趋势分析

根据2005～2009年各季度对镇江古运河水体多项指标的监测资料,分析了古运河水体中N、P营养元素的时空分布特征,选用营养状态质量指数法对水体营养状态进行了评价,并预测了古运河水体的富营养化趋势。结果表明,古运河水体中营养元素随年度呈先增后减的特征,而年内季度分布不明显,空间分布基本呈从上游向下游递增的规律;2005～2009年,古运河水体连年处于富营养水平,2007年最为严重,但自2007年以来,水体营养水平逐年下降,水体富营养化趋势有所减缓。     

大宁河水体营养盐状况与水华爆发之间关系分析

通过对大宁河常规监测和水华爆发期间加密监测断面的氮、磷营养盐指标统计,运用综合评价、相关性分析等方法对大宁河氮、磷营养盐分布和叶绿素a与总磷、总氮的关系进行了分析.结果显示,水华爆发期间叶绿素a与总磷、总氮呈正相关关系,总磷是大宁河水华爆发的限制因子.氮磷水平呈现从上游到入长江口逐渐递增趋势,长江回灌作用对大宁河输入部分氮、磷营养盐.     

长江口边滩水库藻类增殖潜力及遮光控藻研究

从长江口及两个长江口边滩水库(陈行水库和宝钢水库)采集水样,在人工气候室内进行了藻类增殖潜力研究.结果表明,在完全不添加营养成分的前提下,在培养未灭菌水样时蓝绿藻可成为优势种而大量增殖;在灭菌水样中人工接种铜绿微囊藻时,该藻的藻细胞数最大现存量可达5.65×106个/mL.另一方面,采用遮光控藻思路,在上海交通大学致远湖中设置软体浮式人工围隔,待其发生水华后将围隔遮光,7 d后叶绿素a从发生水华时的176.9 μg/L降至21.4μg/L.因此,使用遮光技术可以达到有效控藻的目的.     

Cost–benefit analysis of beach-cast harvest: Closing land-marine nutrient loops in the Baltic Sea region

Harvesting beach-cast can help mitigate marine eutrophication by closing land-marine nutrient loops and provide a blue biomass raw material for the bioeconomy. Cost–benefit analysis was applied to harvest activities during 2009–2018 on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea, highlighting benefits such as nutrient removal from the marine system and improved recreational opportunities as well as costs of using inputs necessary for harvest. The results indicate that the activities entailed a net gain to society, lending substance to continued funding for harvests on Gotland and assessments of upscaling of harvest activities to other areas in Sweden and elsewhere. The lessons learnt from the considerable harvest experience on Gotland should be utilized for developing concrete guidelines for carrying out sustainable harvest practice, paying due attention to local conditions but also to what can be generalized to a wider national and international context.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01641-8.     

Recovery or decline of the northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain.     

Ecological network analyses and their use for establishing reference domain in functional assessment of an estuary

We developed a framework to use ecological network analysis for functional assessment of large aquatic ecosystems in the context of ecosystem-based management. We established a reference domain for the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, USA, from changes over time. Four reference network models of the trophic structure of the estuary during early and late summers of 1997 and 1998 were constructed and analyzed. The estuary has experienced various symptoms of eutrophication during the past 20 years, including summer-time hypoxia and fish kills. The networks were used to quantify indices of nominal trophic dynamics and their variation. The ratio of biomass of nekton to that of macrobenthos, derived from network construction, was used to index severity of eutrophication and to promote accessibility of ecological network analysis to environmental management. The ratio increased from early to late summer, and network metrics demonstrated a variety of responses in association with that change. Some variables from network analysis, especially related to consumers, reflected some but not all of this change. Others reflected the most severe increase in the ratio in late summer 1997 when hypoxia was most extensive. We evaluated uncertainty and the modulating effects of hierarchy by comparing variation of input biomasses with integrative response variables. Relative variation in input variables was generally greater than that of the integrative response variables as predicted by hierarchy theory. Ecological network analysis has previously served as support for ecosystem-based management of large aquatic systems with some success. However, its use can be enhanced by making it more accessible to environmental managers and policy makers. Ways to do this include promoting simple metrics from network construction and explicitly associating network analysis to concepts familiar to the management community, such as functional assessment and reference.     

Description and sensitivity analysis for the LESV model: Water quality variables and the balance of organisms in a fjordic region of restricted exchange

In this paper we describe a new ecological model for Regions of Restricted Exchange (RRE), such as fjords, estuaries, rias and lagoons. The model is intended to simulate the impact of external nutrient input on microplankton (phytoplankton plus pelagic microheterotrophs) in RREs. We have implemented the model with the practical purpose of finding a safe limit to the capacities of RRE to assimilate fish-farm waste. Sea-cage farming of fish is increasing in fjords in northern and southern hemispheres, and its external nutrient input can lead to environmental problems such as eutrophication and deoxygenation. The model includes a physical system of three layers with exchanges driven by tidal movement, freshwater input, wind stirring. The biological part includes two microplankton compartments, each parameterizing a microbial loop and each containing chlorophyll. The first compartment represents diatoms and associated heterotrophs, and the second compartment represents flagellates and associated heterotrophs. As well as the balance of these organisms, the model simulates concentrations of nutrient N, P, and Si, dissolved oxygen, and water transparency. Chlorophyll and nutrient change are linked by yields (q  ). Losses of microplankton to grazing by mesozooplankton or benthos are simulated by a temperature-dependent grazing pressure acting on a mean loss (_L0)$(L_0)$. The model also includes the ability to simulate point source inputs of nutrients or organic matter and a generic tracer with first order decay. Sea-cage fish-farms exemplify such point sources. In order to explore model behaviour, we included inputs from a 1500 tonnes salmon farm multiplied by a factor (γ)$(\gamma )$. We carried out sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters and forcing variables in the case of the shallow Scottish fjord, Loch Creran, in 1975 before the introduction of salmon farming. We tested the model fit to this pristine state (γ=0)$(\gamma =0)$, using Major Axis Regression of simulated variables on observed variables. The model successfully follows the seasonal cycles of chlorophyll (summer over both microplanktons) and the limiting nutrients (P, N). The sensitivity analysis identified three sets of key parameters: (γ)$(\gamma )$ and other fish-farm coefficients, which control farm waste effects on an RRE; (_L0)$(L_0)$ parameters for each microplankton, which link these to the rest of the ecosystem and which have implications for future inclusion of shellfish farming in the model and, chlorophyll yields from nutrients (q), which are crucial for the predication of eutrophication and the ecological understanding of the model.     

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models

Model practitioners increasingly place emphasis on rigorous quantitative error analysis in aquatic biogeochemical models and the existing initiatives range from the development of alternative metrics for goodness of fit, to data assimilation into operational models, to parameter estimation techniques. However, the treatment of error in many of these efforts is arguably selective and/or ad hoc. A Bayesian hierarchical framework enables the development of robust probabilistic analysis of error and uncertainty in model predictions by explicitly accommodating measurement error, parameter uncertainty, and model structure imperfection. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical formulation for simultaneously calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system) with differences in their trophic conditions, prior precisions of model parameters, available information, measurement error or inter-annual variability. Our statistical formulation also explicitly considers the uncertainty in model inputs (model parameters, initial conditions), the analytical/sampling error associated with the field data, and the discrepancy between model structure and the natural system dynamics (e.g., missing key ecological processes, erroneous formulations, misspecified forcing functions). The comparison between observations and posterior predictive monthly distributions indicates that the plankton models calibrated under the Bayesian hierarchical scheme provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. Our results also suggest that the Bayesian hierarchical approach allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites and this feature will be highly relevant to conservation practices of regions with a high number of freshwater resources for which complete data could never be practically collected. Finally, we discuss the prospect of extending this framework to spatially explicit biogeochemical models (e.g., more effectively connect inshore with offshore areas) along with the benefits for environmental management, such as the optimization of the sampling design of monitoring programs and the alignment with the policy practice of adaptive management.     

New insights into eutrophication management: Importance of temperature and water residence time

Eutrophication and harmful cyanobacterial blooms threaten water resources all over the world. There is a great controversy about controlling only phosphorus or controlling both nitrogen and phosphorus in the management of lake eutrophication. The primary argument against the dual nutrients control of eutrophication is that nitrogen fixation can compensate the nitrogen deficits. Thus, it is of great necessary to study the factors that can significantly affect the nitrogen fixation. Due to the dif...