A violent,episodic vapour cloud explosion assessment: Deflagration-to-detonation transition

A large vapour cloud explosion (VCE) followed by a fire is one of the most dangerous and high consequence events that can occur in petrochemical facilities. The current process of safety practice in the industry in VCE assessment is to assume that all VCEs are deflagration. This assumption has been considered for nearly three decades. In recent years, major fire and VCE incidents in fuel storage depots gained considerable attention in extreme high explosion overpressure due to the transition from Deflagration to Detonation (DDT). Though the possibility of DDTs is lower than deflagrations, they have been identified in some of the most recent large-scale VCE incidents, including Buncefield (UK), 2005, San Juan explosion (US), 2009, and IOCL Jaipur (India), 2009 event. Such an incident established the need to understand not only VCE but also the importance of avoiding the escalation of minor incidents into much more devastating consequences.Despite decades of research, understanding of the fundamental physical mechanisms and governing factors of deflagration-to detonation transition (DDT) transition remains mostly elusive. An extreme multi-scale, multi-physics nature of this process uncertainly makes DDT one of the “Grand Challenge” problems of typical physics, and any significant developments toward its assured insistence would require revolutionary step forward in experiments, theory, and numerical modelling. Under certain circumstances, nevertheless, it is possible for DDT to occur, and this can be followed by a propagating detonation that quickly consumes the remaining detonable cloud. In a detonable cloud, a detonation creates the worst accident that can happen. Because detonation overpressures are much higher than those in a deflagration and continue through the entire detonable cloud, the damage from a DDT event is more severe. The consideration of detonation in hazard and risk assessment would identify new escalation potentials and recognize critical buildings impacted. This knowledge will allow more effective management of this hazard.The main conclusion from this paper is that detonations did occur in Jaipur accident at least part of the VCE accidents. The vapour cloud explosion could not have been caused by a deflagration alone, given the widespread occurrence of high overpressures and directional indicators in open uncongested areas containing the cloud. Additionally, the major incident has left many safety issues behind, which must be repeatedly addressed. It reveals that adequate safety measures were either underestimated or not accounted for seriously. This article highlights the aftermath of the IOCL Jaipur incident and addresses challenges put forward by it.     

Flammability hazard analysis of imidazolium-based ionic liquid binary mixtures under high temperatures

Ionic liquid (IL) mixtures are promising because they can optimize the involved properties according to industrial needs. It has already been demonstrated that IL flammability is due mainly to IL decomposition generating flammable substances. Four different ILs, 1-Butylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate ([BIM][BF₄]), 1-butylimidazolium nitrate ([BIM][NO₃]), 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate([BMIM][BF₄]), and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium nitrate ([BMIM][NO₃]), were selected as the parent salts to form the different imidazolium-based IL binary mixtures. These mixtures were tested via isothermal thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) at different temperatures (120, 150, 180, 210, and 240 °C), then tested by the flash point analyzer after isothermal heating pretreatment at the above temperatures. Results show that the mixtures' flash point values decrease with the heating temperature increase. Vaporization of the IL mixtures’ decomposition products results in a higher concentration of flammable gases and a flash point decrease, which lead to the flammability hazard increasing. Moreover, results show that the flash points of the studied binary imidazolium IL mixtures are more similar to those of the more unstable IL in their parent ILs. Also, the flammability hazard of IL binary mixtures may obviously increase under the high temperature environment for a long time.     

Dynamics of explosion venting in a compartment with methane-air mixtures

A series of experiments on explosion venting of methane-air mixtures are performed to scrutinize the pressure evolution as well as the flame dynamics and morphology at various vent conditions. Specifically, a premixed flame is ignited at the center of a polycarbonate cylindrical compartment, with three various vent areas considered (with negligible vent relief pressure). As expected, the highest maximum pressure is observed in the case of the smallest vent area. For all three cases, the pressure evolution experiences two major peaks, associated with the instants (i) when the maximum flame front surface area in the chamber is reached and (ii) when an external explosion occurs due to venting of unburned gases, respectively. For the fuel-rich mixtures, a flashback is observed subsequent to the external explosion, constituting the key outcome of the present work. The flame tip velocities show two general trends, namely, exponential acceleration towards the vent, while a flame propagates towards the blocked side of the compartment with no acceleration, which is important to know in the fire/explosion safety applications.     

Available Water Supplies in Beijing,China, Under Single‐ and Multi‐Year Drought

Since its implementation in 2015, the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project (MR‐SNWDP) has transferred an average of 45 billion cubic meters of surface water per year from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River and Hai River Basin in northern China, but how that supply is able to cope with droughts under different scenarios has not been explored. In this study, using the water demand for 2020 as the guaranteed water target, a Water Evaluation and Planning system was used to simulate available water supplies in Beijing under different drought scenarios. In the case of a single‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 16.7%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.3%. In the case of a multi‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 25.3%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.4% and domestic water supply was improved. Our research suggests that to prepare for multi‐year drought in the Beijing area, the SNWDP supports increased supplies to the region that would mitigate drought effects. This study is, however, mostly focused on water supply provision to Beijing and does not comprehensively evaluate other potential impacts. Multiple additional avenues could be pursued that include replenishing groundwater, increasing reservoir storage, and water conservation methods. Further research is needed to explore the relative costs and benefits of these approaches.     

Impact of medical fitness to drive policies in preventing property damage,injury, and death from motor vehicle collisions in Ontario,Canada

Introduction: Drivers with medical conditions and functional impairments are at increased collision risk. A challenge lies in identifying the point at which such risk becomes unacceptable to society and requires mitigating measures. This study models the road safety impact of medical fitness-to-drive policy in Ontario. Method: Using data from 2005 to 2014, we estimated the losses to road safety incurred during the time medically-at-risk drivers were under review, as well as the savings to road safety accrued as a result of licensing decisions made after the review process. Results: While under review, drivers with medical conditions had an age- and sex-standardized collision rate no different from the general driver population, suggesting no road safety losses occurred (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93–1.12). Licensing decisions were estimated to have subsequently prevented 1,211 (95% CI: 780–1,730) collisions, indicating net road safety savings resulting from medical fitness to drive policies. However, more collisions occurred than were prevented for drivers with musculoskeletal disorders, sleep apnea, and diabetes. We theorize on these findings and discuss its multiple implications. Conclusions: Minimizing the impact of medical conditions on collision occurrence requires robust policies that balance fairness and safety. It is dependent on efforts by academic researchers (who study fitness to drive); policymakers (who set driver medical standards); licensing authorities (who make licensing decisions under such standards); and clinicians (who counsel patients on their driving risk and liaise with licensing authorities). Practical Applications: Further efforts are needed to improve understanding of the effects of medical conditions on collision risk, especially for the identified conditions and combinations of conditions. Results reinforce the value of optimizing the processes by which information is solicited from physicians in order to better assess the functional impact of drivers’ medical conditions on driving and to take suitable licensing action.     

Meta-analysis of human connection to nature and proenvironmental behavior

Understanding what drives environmentally protective or destructive behavior is important to the design and implementation of effective public policies to encourage people's engagement in proenvironmental behavior (PEB). Research shows that a connection to nature is associated with greater engagement in PEB. However, the variety of instruments and methods used in these studies poses a major barrier to integrating research findings. We conducted a meta-analysis of the relationship between connection to nature and PEB. We identified studies through a systematic review of the literature and used Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software to analyze the results from 37 samples (n = 13,237) and to test for moderators. A random-effects model demonstrated a positive and significant association between connection to nature and PEB (r = 0.42, 95% CI 0.36, 0.47, p < 0.001). People who are more connected to nature reported greater engagement in PEB. Standard tests indicated little effect of publication bias in the sample. There was significant heterogeneity among the samples. Univariate categorical analyses showed that the scales used to measure connection to nature and PEB were significant moderators and explained the majority of the between-study variance. The geographic location of a study, age of participants, and the percentage of females in a study were not significant moderators. We found that a deeper connection to nature may partially explain why some people behave more proenvironmentally than others and that the relationship is ubiquitous. Facilitating a stronger connection to nature may result in greater engagement in PEB and conservation, although more longitudinal studies with randomized experiments are required to demonstrate causation.     

海河流域沉积物中典型重金属的生态风险评估及验证

沉积物重金属污染及其生态风险评估日益受到关注,而沉积物质量基准是开展生态风险评估的有力工具。本研究通过物种敏感度分布法(species sensitivity distributions, SSD)和急慢性毒性比(acute to chronic ratios, ACR)推导了镍、铜、锌、镉和铅的沉积物质量基准(sediment quality guideline, SQG)。在获得合理的重金属沉积物慢性毒性数据的基础上,采用S-Logistic模型拟合镍、铜、镉和铅的慢性SSD曲线,采用S-Gompertz模型拟合锌的慢性SSD曲线。得到镍、铜、锌、镉和铅沉积物质量基准低值(sediment quality guideline low value, SQGlow)分别为18.6、69.9、107、1.26和38.4 mg·kg~(-1),应用ACRs,得到相应的沉积物质量基准高值(sediment quality guideline high value, SQGhigh)分别为167、226、556、10.1和384 mg·kg~(-1)。与加拿大和澳大利亚重金属沉积物基准值具有一定的可比性。选择花翅摇蚊(Chironomus kiiensis)、伸展摇蚊(Chironomus tentans)和霍甫水丝蚓(Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri)3种底栖生物作为受试生物,验证基准值对海河流域沉积物重金属毒性的预测能力。结果表明,利用SQGs预测沉积物毒性的总准确率为76.2%,3种底栖生物验证准确率从高至低为:花翅摇蚊>伸展摇蚊>霍甫水丝蚓。     

乡村旅游背景下农户生计策略转变意愿研究

近年来在乡村振兴战略实施背景下,乡村旅游在发展农村经济中的作用更加凸显。促进乡村旅游的健康发展和乡村农户生计的持续改善是当前学术界讨论的重要话题。现有研究表明,可持续生计框架中客观环境影响作用是可持续旅游生计研究的热点方向,但可持续生计框架外其他主观因素对生计策略转变影响的动态定量考量却较为空缺。本研究在乡村旅游背景下探讨政府信任度对农户生计策略转变意愿影响机制,引入居民参与度、居民支持度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用,通过结构方程模型对山东省乡村旅游地进行定量分析,并对特定路径间中介作用进行比较。实证研究结果显示:①政府信任度对居民参与度和居民支持度具有正向影响,居民支持度正向影响居民参与度。②居民参与度和居民支持度均正向影响生活满意度。③生活满意度对农户生计策略转变意愿产生正向影响。这表明在居民支持度、居民参与度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用下,政府信任度对生计策略转变意愿具有间接影响。因此,为了助推乡村振兴,实现乡村旅游和农户生计的可持续,应发挥政府作用,从政策实施、旅游市场监控、完善基础设施建设等方面提高政府信任度,培养农户的主人翁意识,引导农户融入乡村旅游发展过程中,提高生活满意度,增强农户生计策略转变意愿。     

大跨度斜拉桥抗震性能分析与减震控制研究

本文以香溪河大桥为工程背景,利用大型有限元软件ANSYS建立该斜拉桥的有限元模型,进行地震作用下的动力非线性时程分析,并以COMBIN37单元模拟非线性粘滞阻尼器,研究了粘滞阻尼器参数对桥梁抗震性能的影响规律,并确定了合理的阻尼器参数取值。并对未设置与设置粘滞阻尼器的桥梁结构地震响应进行数值分析与比较,分析结果表明:合理设置粘滞阻尼器,可以有效降低桥梁结构关键部位在地震作用下的位移响应,并对结构内力也有一定的降低。本文研究结果为大跨度斜拉桥振动控制分析及工程应用具有重要的指导意义。