Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

九孔鲍摄食江蓠与人工配合饵料的能量收支比较

通过投喂江蓠 (Gracilariaceaelicheniodes)和配合饵料对九孔鲍 (Haliotisdiversicoloraquatilis)的能量收支进行了比较研究 .结果表明 :两种饲料组的九孔鲍耗氧率在昼夜之间均并没有明显差异 (P >0 .0 5 ) ,九孔鲍摄食两种饵料的吸收率也没有显著差异 (P >0 .0 5 ) ,而饵料系数、蛋白质效率、总生长效率则有显著的差异 (P <0 .0 5 ) .配合饵料组的排泄能显著高于江篱组的 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,而代谢能和粘液能却显著低于江篱组的 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,两组饲料的排粪能和壳能没有显著差异 (P >0 .0 5 ) .因壳能很少 ,在测定中可以忽略 .配合饵料组的软体部生长能显著高于江篱组的 (P <0 .0 5 ) .摄食江蓠和配合饵料的九孔鲍能量收支方程分别为 :江蓠组10 0C =(12 .76± 1.2 2 )F (76 .4 7± 5 .33)R (2 .74± 0 .4 0 )U (6 .75± 0 .4 6 )M (2 .78± 0 .4 8)Pg (0 .0 3±0 .0 1)Psh- (1.5 3± 4 .19)配合饵料组10 0C =(12 .15± 1.6 9)F (5 4 .94± 5 .10 )R (4.5 0± 0 .70 )U (3.99± 0 .0 7)M (2 9.79± 4 .77)Pg (0 .0 3±0 .0 1)Psh- (5 .4 0± 7.4 3)     

单甲脒盐酸盐农药在水体悬浮颗粒物上的吸附行为

用批量平衡法研究了单甲脒农药在三种水体悬浮颗粒物上的吸附规律，所得数据进行回分析后，发现吸附规律符合Ｆｒｅｕｎｄｉｌｉｃｈ方程，并且在悬浮颗粒物上的吸附能力随着颗粒物中有机碳含量的增加而稍有减少。     

单甲脒动物代谢的研究

采用气相色谱／傅立叶红外光谱和气相色谱／质谱仪分析大鼠肝脏中单甲脒的代谢产物，证明大鼠经口摄入单甲脒后，在肝脏中迅速代谢，其代谢中间产物为２，４－二甲基苯胺和含酰胺基的化全物。     

阴离子表面活性剂对2,4-D在土壤中吸附的影响

研究了不同浓度的表面活性剂十二烷基苯磺酸钠（SDBS）对2，4－D在土壤中吸附的影响。结果表明：在SDBS小于其临界胶束浓度（CMC）时，2，4－D的吸附量增加；而当SDBS浓度大于其临界胶束浓度时，2，4－D的吸附量随SDBS浓度的增加而减少。表面活性剂对2，4－D吸附行为的影响是几种作用的共同结果，根据SDBS的性质，解释了表面活性剂2，4－D吸附行为影响的几个不同途径。     

硝基芳烃对虹鳉鱼(Poecilia reticulata)的毒性

主要研究了2,6-二硝基甲苯(2,6-DNT)和4-硝基甲苯(4-NT)两种硝基芳烃对虹鳉鱼的急性毒性、亚急性毒性及联合毒性效应,旨在为渔业水质标准的制定与完善提供可靠的科学依据。研究表明,2,6-DNT的急性毒性大于4-NT,二者的96 h LC50值分别为(25.22±0.19)mg/L和(60.26±0.09)mg/L;亚急性毒性研究中,两种化合物的各种质量浓度在40天内,对试验动物的生长有不同程度的影响;应用Marking相加指数法评价二者的联合毒性,结果表明其联合毒性为协同。     

水质对UV/H_2O_2降解2,4-二氯酚的影响

研究了UV/H2O2工艺对2,4-二氯酚(2,4-DCP)的去除效果和水中阴离子、腐殖酸对该工艺降解2,4-DCP的影响。结果表明:UV/H2O2工艺可以有效的去除水中2,4-DCP,光降解过程符合一级反应动力学模型;在H2O2投加量为8mg/L,1个30W低压汞灯照射下,2,4-DCP在蒸馏水和自来水中光降解速率常数分别为0.0232/min和0.0162/min;NO3-、Cl-、HCO3-对2,4-DCP光降解有抑制作用;当3种离子浓度为0.5mmol/L、10mmol/L、20mmol/L时,对2,4-DCP光降解的抑制程度为HCO3->NO3->Cl-;随着离子浓度增大,抑制作用增强;自来水中的光降解速率常数低于蒸馏水中的光降解速率常数是由于水中多种离子影响的结果;腐殖酸在低浓度时,促进光降解反应的进行,在高浓度时,2,4-DCP的光降解氧化受到抑制。     

Formation of polychlorobiphenyls in silicone rubber

In silicone rubber crosslinked with bis(2,4-dichlorobenzoyl) peroxide (DCBP) as initiator about 0.1% of DCBP is converted into polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs). The PCB content in silicone rubber determined by high resolution gas chromatography (HRGC) after its destruction by HF is around 10 mg/kg. 29 PCB congeners were detected. Instead of the expected PCB-47, lower chlorinated congeners are predominant. Some possible pathways of their origin are presented.     

Study of oil-water partitioning of a chemical dispersant using an acute bioassay with marine crustaceans

The toxicity of seawater dispersions of a chemical dispersant to two marine crustaceans was investigated in the presence and absence of various quantities of a non-toxic mineral oil. From the results and a physical-chemical partitioning analysis, a limiting value of the oil-water partition coefficient of the toxic compounds is deduced suggesting that essentially all of the toxic compounds in the dispersant will partition into solution in water following dispersant application to an oil spill. This conclusion simplifies interpretation and prediction of the toxic effects of a dispersed oil spill.The combined bioassay-partitioning procedure may have applications to the study of the toxicity of other complex mixtures such as industrial effluents.     

Widespread contamination by tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol in cetaceans from the North Pacific and Asian coastal waters

For understanding global distribution, transport and behavior of tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol (TCPMOH), the two newly identified microcontaminants, the present study determined their concentrations and other persistent organochlorines (OCs) in the blubber of nine species of adult male cetaceans collected from various locations in the North Pacific Ocean and coastal waters of some Asian countries, during 1985-97. Concentrations of TCPMe and TCPMOH were found to be highest in northern right whale dolphins, which may be attributable to wide distribution of this species, including some heavily polluted areas such as coastal California. Elevated residue levels of TCPMe and TCPMOH were observed in both off-shore and coastal species, suggesting widespread contamination of these compounds in the marine environment. Higher contamination of TCPMe and TCPMOH was found in cetaceans from temperate and cold waters than those from tropical regions. The latitudinal distribution of TCPMe and TCPMOH in cetaceans from the North Pacific and Asian coastal waters was similar to that of DDTs, suggesting less transportable nature of TCPMe and TCPMOH in the marine environment. Data on the occurrence of TCPMe and TCPMOH further indicated high bioaccumulation potential of these compounds, which was comparable to DDTs. Relative concentrations of TCPMe/TCPMOH in cetaceans were apparently higher than those observed in seals, suggestive of lower metabolic capacity for these compounds in cetaceans than in pinnipeds, which is similar to classic contaminants like polychlorinated biphenyls and DDTs.