Water Use by Thermoelectric Power Plants in the United States1

Abstract: Thermoelectric power generation is responsible for the largest annual volume of water withdrawals in the United States although it is only a distant third after irrigation and industrial sectors in consumptive use. The substantial water withdrawals by thermoelectric power plants can have significant impacts on local surface and ground water sources, especially in arid regions. However, there are few studies of the determinants of water use in thermoelectric generation. Analysis of thermoelectric water use data in existing steam thermoelectric power plants shows that there is wide variability in unitary thermoelectric water use (in cubic decimeters per 1 kWh) within and among different types of cooling systems. Multiple‐regression models of unit thermoelectric water use were developed to identify significant determinants of unit thermoelectric water use. The high variability of unit usage rates indicates that there is a significant potential for water conservation in existing thermoelectric power plants.     

THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

RIDGE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LANDSAT INVESTIGATION OF WATER QUALITY IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: Landsat radiance values were processed at two different (single and double) levels of accuracy to estimate chlorophyll a, turbidity, and suspended sediment in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Both ordinary least square and ridge regression analyses were used to establish a relationship between water quality parameters and Landsat radiance. Radiance measurements made at greater precision (double level) gave a better solution in this application. The ridge regression analysis for double level not only can reduce the total mean square error about 13–20 percent and confidence interval about 6–28 percent as compared to ordinary least square analysis, but it can also change the interpretation of analysis results.     

CAPITAL COST OF RURAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: The cost of water service to rural residents is very high compared to urban areas. This is true even after subsidization by Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) loans and grants. Capital cost data on 44 projects financed by the Ohio office of the FmHA during the period August 1968 to January 1977 are used to derive cost equations for 26 components of rural water distribution systems. These components represent 92 percent of the capital cost of the pipeline distribution systems studied. The data can be used to economically design rural water supply systems from a capital cost viewpoint. More data are needed on operation and maintenance costs as well as central and cluster well costs before totally economic system designs can be undertaken.     

COMPARING METHODS OF HYDROLOGIC REGIONALIZATION1

ABSTRACT: Data splitting is used to compare methods of determining “homogeneous” hydrologic regions. The methods compared use cluster analysis based on similarity of hydrologic characteristics or similarity of characteristics of a stream's drainage basin. Data for 221 stations in Arizona are used to show that the methods, which are a modification of DeCoursey's scheme for defining regions, improve the fit of estimation data to the model, but that is is necessary to have an independent measure of predictive accuracy, such as that provided by data splitting, to demonstrate improved predictive accuracy. The methods used the complete linkage algorithm for cluster analysis and computed weighted average estimates of hydrologic characteristics at ungaged sites.     

ESTIMATION OF PRE- AND POST-DEVELOPMENT NONPOINT WATER QUALITY LOADINGS1

ABSTRACT: A simple procedure for estimating pre- and post-development water quality loadings from residential communities is discussed. The procedure deals with: (a) gathering basic water quality loading numbers observed by others at several watersheds with various land uses; (b) obtaining the breakdown of proposed land uses at various phases of the community development; and (c) estimating pre- and post-development water quality loading numbers by taking the weighted average of the basic loading numbers in terms of areal coverages of different land uses at various phases of development. Results of this simplified procedure have been verified indirectly by comparing them with the estimates derived independently through a more fundamental but time-consuming approach. The procedure was used to evaluate the anticipated water quality impact of two future residential communities in South Florida by analyzing four water quality parameters: Suspended Soils (SS), Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD₅). Although computation of loading numbers with mixed land uses is not an exact science at the present time, the recommended approach appears to be the best available technique to analyze quantitatively the water quality-quantity-land use interactions.     

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

模糊综合评价法的改进及其在水库水质评价中的应用

为了克服传统模糊综合评价法中权重赋值的片面性及最大隶属度原则导致评价结果不合理的弊端,提出了基于层次分析法和熵权法的主客观组合权重,并结合相乘相加算子及加权平均原则,建立了改进的模糊综合评价法.选取TP、TN、DO、NH3-N、CODMn和BOD5为评价指标,用改进的模糊综合评价法对重庆某水库2012年7-12月的水质进行了综合评价.结果表明:TN为主要的污染物;水质最差时段为8月,评价结果为2.655,水质属于Ⅱ级,略偏于Ⅲ级.评价结果与人工神经网络模型所得结果基本一致.