40 years of global environmental assessments: A retrospective analysis

This paper provides a retrospective analysis of global environmental assessment (GEA) processes and their changing character, focus and political context over the past 40 years. We examine how and why elements of organizational design, objectives, and the evolving political landscape have interacted and changed, with a view of informing the design and conduct of future processes. We find that the historical genesis of GEAs is closely connected to the emergence of environmental multilateralism. However, the prevailing conditions and assumptions which originally gave rise to the GEA concept have changed significantly over time, giving rise to an increasing demand for a focus on response options and policies. We also find that the epistemic and process complexity of GEAs has increased substantially, without a corresponding expansion in the magnitude and composition of GEA management teams. We suggest that developing analytical capacities for policy assessment as well as ensuring sufficient resources and tools to manage increasingly complex GEAs is essential to ensure their future relevance and success. This article is part of a special issue on solution-oriented GEAs.     

Lessons from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on inclusiveness across geographies and stakeholders

There have been many calls in policy and academia for more inclusiveness in science-policy interfaces, but there is as yet insufficient clarity as to what such inclusiveness means and how to achieve it in the context of international organisations. This paper analyses how inclusive the IPCC is across geographies and stakeholders. Building on the distinction between access and active participation, it examines the involvement of developing countries and NGOs in the Panel’s assessment process.The analysis shows that more inclusive institutional set-ups in international science-policy organisations do not automatically lead to greater credibility, salience and legitimacy of knowledge production processes (Mitchell et al., 2006). For instance, inclusive access does not per se guarantee active participation as the latter depends on a variety of factors including resources and the capacity of actors to engage. Furthermore, in institutional contexts the idea of inclusiveness is necessarily subject to operational interpretations. How these interpretations relate to the representativeness of those who participate in the process affects the relevance of knowledge to its users’ needs. Finally, there are political elements to inclusiveness as more powerful actors may be unwilling to renegotiate the balance of power to expand access to stakeholders.The paper concludes that these nuances should be taken into account in the IPCC and other international science-policy institutions. It also urges the Panel to address the developing country participation gap and explore institutional avenues for expanding access to non-state stakeholders in order to increase the credibility, salience and legitimacy of its processes and shift to solutions-oriented assessments.     

土壤呼吸对模拟增温的响应与不确定性

温度升高是全球变化的主要表现方式之一，生态系统的许多物理、化学过程都和温度相关，因此温度的变化必然会引起一系列生态系统过程发生变化。土壤碳库在全球变化研究中的地位日益突出，土壤呼吸是土壤碳库碳平衡中一个不容忽视的重要过程，研究土壤呼吸有助于揭示土壤碳库动态机理。土壤呼吸是陆地生态系统把植物通过光合作用固定的CO₂返回到大气的主要途径。本文综合分析了近年来的研究论文和已有的整合分析研究结果，以期：（1）讨论引起土壤呼吸变化的主要原因；（2）总结近年来土壤呼吸对模拟增温响应的不确定性；（3）展望未来土壤呼吸的研究方向及难点。     

Progress in global ecological modelling

The development of ecological modelling on global level since the middle of the 19th century is first reviewed, including application of statistical analysis, introduction of logistic curve, earth surface modeling, systems ecology, computer-oriented mathematical models and spatially explicit models. Finally, we discuss problems existing in ecological modelling on global level.     

A mechanistic model of GPS collar location data: Implications for analysis and bias mitigation

Global positioning system (GPS) collars have revolutionized the collection of animal location data; however, it is well-recognized that considerable bias can be present in these data due to habitat or behavior-induced obstruction of satellite signals resulting in inaccurate or missing locations. To date, no explicit theoretical framework of GPS fix acquisition specific to animal telemetry has been presented, and studies make differing assumptions regarding factors influencing GPS fix acquisition and how these data should be analyzed. Inappropriate statistical models have been used, interaction effects have been misunderstood, and the implementation of bias mitigation techniques has been problematic. Herein we outline current conceptual and analytical problems in the GPS animal telemetry literature, and subsequently present a theoretical model-based framework for GPS fix acquisition that clarifies the single and interactive effects of habitat and behavioral obstruction, fix interval, and collar model on GPS collar performance. By recognizing that GPS fix acquisition is a Bernoulli process, it becomes apparent that all forms of obstruction inherently interact with each other, making generalizations across study areas, study species, and collar models problematic. Stationary collar tests to determine the probability of fix acquisition (PFA), location accuracy, and the response to sources of obstruction are thus of limited applicability to animal-deployed collars. Bias mitigation techniques that extrapolate PFA models across samples, especially those using stationary collar tests to correct animal-deployed collars, are theoretically unsound. It is also demonstrated that nonlinearities in the relationships between sources of obstruction and PFA complicate PFA modeling with limited data and that even slight model misspecification can lead to considerable errors in correction factors, especially when using inverse weighting to mitigate bias. By emphasizing the importance of GPS collar sensitivity and ephemeris retention, the theoretical framework predicts that newer, more sensitive GPS collars will be less severely biased by sources of obstruction than reported for the older, less sensitive collars that have been used in the majority of GPS performance studies to date and we expect this trend to continue. This heuristic modeling exercise should be of value to researchers planning and analyzing studies using GPS collars and it also establishes a starting point for future theoretical investigations into GPS collar performance and bias mitigation.     

A global security approach towards implementing sustainable development in southern Africa

SUMMARY

An interactive and incremental developmental approach to sustainable development is proposed. It requires broad public participation, is based on the development of a shared value system for civic society and norms which determine the behaviour of states. It is aimed at building commitment rather than directing change. This is achieved by simultaneoulsy harnessing the notions of ‘positive human survival’ adopted from Global Security theory and a co-evolutionary approach to human socio-economic constructs. Modern threats to Nation States can be regarded as ‘threats without enemies’, are not compatible with traditional views of sovereignty, and confronting such threats frequently requires co-operative behaviour and good neigbourliness from states. Principles likely to underpin an evolving shared value system for Nation states and civil society include: democracy, equity and diversity. In order to deal with the uncertainty of evolving socio-economic constructs and the conceptual pluralism inherent in modern societies, public agencies need to develop significant mediation, negotiation and facilitation skills. This view has significant implications for National and Regional policy, and the democratisation of information and the development of early warning capabilities about potential threats to human security are pivotal.     

All Fish for China?

In this paper we examine the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the level of fish intake in China in comparison with the rest of the world. We also analyse the origin and destination of China’s seafood products in order to understand the main patterns during the last decades. The results show that in the 1961–2011 period the rate of growth of the GDP in China doubled that of other developing regions, while the daily fish intake of China increased fourfold, making China the largest fish consumer in the world. Given the size and scale of China’s role in production, consumption, and global transformation of seafood markets, China is shaping a new era of industrialization in the history of the fishing industry.     

Perceptions of behaviors that cause and mitigate global warming and intentions to perform these behaviors

Individual household and travel behaviors represent a sizeable contribution to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates people's knowledge of these behaviors and perceptions of these behaviors' impact in causing and mitigating climate change. In the present study, a sample of college students were asked to list the behaviors they perform that cause global warming (GW) and the behaviors they could perform to mitigate GW, to rate the impact of the behaviors in terms of their effect on causing or mitigating GW, and to rate their intention to perform each of the behaviors. Results revealed that this sample was well aware of the effect of driving on GW. However, participants underestimated the relative impact of adjusting the thermostat and eating meat on GW and overestimated the impact of littering on causing GW. Although knowledge about GW-mitigating behaviors was not consistently related to behavioral intention, belief that a behavior mitigated GW (whether accurate or not) was strongly related to intention to perform that behavior. Specifically, correlations between belief in the mitigating potential of a behavior and intention were relatively high for adjusting the thermostat, reducing meat consumption, and several behaviors that do not mitigate GW, but were relatively low for reducing driving and not littering. Practical implications and comparisons with previous literature are discussed.     

BVOC emissions, photosynthetic characteristics and changes in chloroplast ultrastructure of Platanus orientalis L. exposed to elevated CO2 and high temperature

To investigate the interactive effects of increasing [CO₂] and heat wave occurrence on isoprene (IE) and methanol (ME) emissions, Platanus orientalis was grown for one month in ambient (380 μmol mol⁻¹) or elevated (800 μmol mol⁻¹) [CO₂] and exposed to high temperature (HT) (38 °C/4 h). In pre-existing leaves, IE emissions were always higher but ME emissions lower as compared to newly-emerged leaves. They were both stimulated by HT. Elevated [CO₂] significantly reduced IE in both leaf types, whereas it increased ME in newly-emerged leaves only. In newly-emerged leaves, elevated [CO₂] decreased photosynthesis and altered the chloroplast ultrastructure and membrane integrity. These harmful effects were amplified by HT. HT did not cause any unfavorable effects in pre-existing leaves, which were characterized by inherently higher IE rates. We conclude that: (1) these results further prove the isoprene's putative thermo-protective role of membranes; (2) HT may likely outweigh the inhibitory effects of elevated [CO₂] on IE in the future.     

Climate Change,Multiple Stressors,and the Decline of Ectotherms

Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short‐term (hours). We conducted an 11‐week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long‐term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water‐conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates. Cambio Climático, Estresantes Múltiples y la Declinación de Ectotermos