Inventing the future: scenarios, imagination, mastery and control

The complexity of mixed social, behavioral, and natural systems—such as those encountered while analyzing, understanding, and trying to manage aspects of climate change and sustainability, requires more common theoretical frameworks and technical tools than either can bear. How does human activity relate to greenhouse gas emissions, changes in the atmosphere, climate variability, and multiple impacts, outcomes, and effects? Some of the connections can be observed and measured, many cannot. Uncertainties of every conceivable sort can occur. As the time frame into the future extends, uncertainties essentially dominate conventional theories, tools, experiences, habits, processes, and so forth. The scientific consensus linking human activity to climate change is now all but settled according to The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The consensus says little, however, about who should be doing what and for what reasons under this singular, even unique circumstance. There are no data about the future on which to rely. We are challenged to imagine many different and possible “futures” as humankind seeks to exert its mastery and control. This essay considers and then weaves together several basic issues, ideas, and topics: complexity, the concept of human intentionality, several means used to exert control in organizations and social systems, and different methods being used to imagine, invent, and communicate the future.     

Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

During the negotiations of the KyotoProtocol the delegation of Brazil presentedan approach for distributing the burden ofemissions reductions among the Partiesbased on the effect of their cumulativehistorical emissions on the global-averagenear-surface temperature. The Letter tothe Parties does not limit the emissions tobe considered to be only greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper weexplore the importance of anthropogenicSO_x emissions that are converted tosulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, togetherwith the cumulative greenhouse gasemissions, in attributing historicaltemperature change. We use historicalemissions and our simple climate model toestimate the relative contributions toglobal warming of the regional emissions byfour Parties: OECD90, Africa and LatinAmerica, Asia, and Eastern Europe and theFormer Soviet Union. Our results show thatfor most Parties the large warmingcontributed by their GHG emissions islargely offset by the correspondingly largecooling by their SO_x emissions. Thus,OECD90 has become the dominant contributorto recent global warming following itslarge reduction in SO_x emissions after1980.     

早始新世气候适宜期形成机制探讨

早始新世气候适宜期发生在53?—?51 Ma,是新生代早期一段气候持续温暖时期.与中中新世气候适宜期和上新世气候适宜期相比,早始新世气候适宜期更加温暖.对于该时期驱动机制的理解有助于深入认识未来温暖气候状况的变化.本文总结了前人提出的构造尺度气候变化的假说,推断出早始新世气候适宜期可能是由于板块构造活动变化导致的温室气体变化所造成,而星际暗物质变化对早始新世气候适宜期的影响有待进一步评估.     

全球和中国变暖特征及未来趋势

自小冰期在上世纪末结束以来，全球气温波动上升，至本世纪８０年代全球平均上升了０．４５±０．１５℃。２０～３０年代的强烈升温（＞０．３℃）归因于自然回暖，６０年代至７０年代初出现北半球为主的一度降温，８０年代又强烈升温至今未息，这次升温以冬季和夜间变暖为主，高纬度地区又大于中低纬度地区，可认为是人为的ＣＯ２等温室气体增加起了重要作用。中国２０～３０年代升温，６０年代降温和８０年代北部地区升温均大于全球平均值。全球降水变化远比温度变化复杂，总趋势略有上升，中国基本处在中纬度降水减少带中，呈现暖干化趋势。在２０年代和６０年代有两次变旱的气候跃变，相伴着旱灾的加重，但降水变率很大，洪涝灾害更为严重。未来气候主要取决于ＣＯ２及其它微量气体增加所加犟的温度效应，全球继续并持久变暖。根据政府间气候变化委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）预测的下世纪温室气体排放，Ｈｕｌｍｅ等（１９９２）综合新近若干模式研究结果，预期全球平均升温最佳估计值到２０５０年为１．２℃（低限与高限范围为０．８℃和１．８℃），而到２１００年为２．５℃（变化范围１．６～３．８℃），中国到２０５０年升温值在东部和东南部为１．０～１．５℃，在东北、华北和西部为１．５～２     

中国热带气旋灾害及全球变暖背景下的可能趋势分析

在分析中国热带气旋灾害影响及时空分布的基础上，计算得出近４０年西北太平洋年平均热带气旋发生总数和其中台风发生数与海表温度，以及与年平均登陆中国热带气旋总数和其中台风登陆数长趋势变化之间的相互关系，并据此估算了全球变暖后中国热带气旋灾害的可能变化趋势。结果表明，若至２０５０年前后全球变暖引起西北太平洋海表温度升高１℃，则在中国登陆热带气旋总数年平均将比现状增加６５％，其中年平均登陆台风数将可能增加５８％左右。     

Environmental and economic impact assessment of construction and demolition waste disposal using system dynamics

Construction and demolition wastes (CDW) have increasingly serious problems in environmental, social, and economic realms. There is no coherent framework for utilization of these wastes which are disposed both legally and illegally. This harms the environment, contributes to the increase of energy consumption, and depletes finite landfills resources. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of two alternatives for the management of CDW, recycling and disposing. The evaluation is carried out through developing a dynamic model with aid STELLA software by conducting the following steps: (1) quantifying the total cost incurred to mitigate the impacts of CDW landfills and uncollected waste on the environment and human health; (2) quantifying the total avoided emissions and saved energy by recycling waste; (3) estimating total external cost saved by recycling waste and; (4) providing a decision support tool that helps in re-thinking about waste disposal. The proposed evaluation methodology allows activating the stringent regulations that restrict waste disposal and developing incentives to encourage constructors to recycle their wastes. The research findings show that recycling CDW leads to significant reductions in emissions, energy use, global warming potential (GWP), and conserves landfills space when compared to disposal of wastes in landfills. Furthermore, the cost of mitigating the impact of disposal is extremely high. Therefore, it is necessary to recycle construction and demolition wastes.     

Climate Communications: Conflicts and Opportunities

The occasion for this forum was sparked by a front-page story in the New York Times by John M. Broder entitled, “Seeking to Save the Planet, with a Thesaurus” (May 1, 2009, p. A11). The article focused on the non-profit EcoAmerica's report, “Climate and Energy Truths: Our Common Future,” which shares research on communication approaches to engaging climate change and energy issues. The Broder article included commentary from Robert J. Brulle, Professor of Sociology and Environmental Science at Drexel University. In response, George P. Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics at UC-Berkeley, published an essay in The Huffington Post, “Why Environmental Understanding, or ‘Framing,’ Matters: An Evaluation of the EcoAmerica Summary Report” (May 19, 2009). The discussion about this report and differing approaches to environmental communication continued on blogs, in emails, and through various other forums. The editorial leadership team of this journal thought such prominent attention to environmental communication in the nexus of so many disciplines and professional investments was exciting. We are pleased the following scholars and practitioners are willing to elaborate on the stakes of this discussion in this forum.     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world. Owing to the limitation we currently have, it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change. Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming. This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies, which focus on seven key problems related to human activities, namely, global warming, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, climate models, future climate change, 2°C warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth’s system. We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly. This would allow us to respond to change with certainty, while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

海平面上升的灾害效应及其研究现状

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,海平面上升加剧了沿海灾害,威胁着沿海地区社会经济的持续发展.文章分析了海平面上升引起的风暴潮加剧、海岸侵蚀、潮滩湿地减少、涵闸废弃、洪涝灾害加剧、海堤破坏、海水入侵等灾害效应及研究现状,提出当前海平面上升灾害效应研究中存在的问题及今后的研究重点.     

全球气候变化研究初探

全球气候变化尤其气候变暖对人类生存环境的影响已受到国际社会的普遍关注.二战以后,随着人口的急剧增多和社会的现代化,环境污染与全球变暖的趋势不断加重.为了人类生存的需要,必须加强对气候变暖的了解和研究,并采取相应措施阻止或减缓全球气候变暖的过程.