Mitigation costs,distributional effects,and ancillary benefits of carbon policies in the Nordic countries,the U.K., and Ireland

This paper provides a survey of top-downmodelling analyses of carbon (C) abatementmitigation costs, distributional effectsand ancillary benefits in the Nordiccountries, the U.K. and Ireland. Specialemphasis is placed on the effects ofrevenue recycling and tax exemptions.According to the analyses, modestemissions reductions can be met withoutsubstantial costs for the countriesstudied, and a strong double dividend isfound in some analyses. The gross domesticproduct (GDP) or welfare effects are mostlyin the range of –0.4 and 1.2 percent whenC emissions are reduced by 20–30 per cent.Lowest costs are obtained without taxexemptions and with tax revenues used toreduce distortionary taxes. Ancillarybenefits are mostly in the range35–80/MgC^-1, i.e., about the same order ofmagnitude as the mitigation costs.Distributional effects are mostlyregressive, unless the tax revenues aredistributed in lump-sum fashion with equaltransfers to each household.     

Decreased emission of nitrous oxide from delivery wards—case study in Sweden

The very potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O) is widely used as a mild anaesthetic for mothers in delivery work in Sweden. As a part of the Stockholm County Council environmental program it was decided in 2002 that the emissions should be drastically reduced. Different ways were theoretically evaluated, and catalytic splitting to nitrogen and oxygen gas (N₂ and O₂) was chosen for a demonstration installation. A Japanese commercial unit for treatment of mixed anaesthetic gases (Anesclean® from Showa Denko K.K.) was thoroughly modified and installed at the Karolinska University Hospital at Huddinge in Stockholm in 2004. The destruction of N₂O was optimised and studied for 2 years. Data from both collection and destruction are given in the article. Of the collected N₂O more than 95% was split to N₂ and O₂ in the very stable system. The overall emission decrease was mainly dependent on the share that could be collected in the specific exhaustion system as compared to the normal room ventilation. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) were used to evaluate the actual environmental value and economical cost for the process. Important factors are pointed out.     

Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate

We model coral community response to bleaching and mass mortality events which are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change. The model was parameterized for the Arabian/Persian Gulf, but is generally applicable. We assume three species groups (Acropora, faviids, and Porites) in two life-stages each where the juveniles are in competition but the adults can enter a size-refuge in which they cannot be competitively displaced. An aggressive group (Acropora species) dominates at equilibrium, which is not reached due to mass mortality events that primarily disadvantage this group (compensatory mortality, >90% versus 25% in faviids and Porites) roughly every 15 years. Population parameters (N individuals, carrying capacity) were calculated from satellite imagery and in situ transects, vital rates (fecundity, mortality, and survival) were derived from the model, field observations, and literature. It is shown that populations and unaltered community structure can persist despite repeated 90% mortality, given sufficiently high fecundity of the remaining population or import from connected populations. The frequency of disturbance determines the dominant group—in low frequency Acropora, in high frequency Porites. This is congruent with field observations. The model of an isolated population was more sensitive to parameter changes than that of connected populations. Highest sensitivity was to mortality rate and recruitment rate. Community composition was sensitive to spacing of disturbances and level of catastrophic mortality. Decreased mortality led to Acropora dominance, increased mortality led to Acropora extinction. In nature, closely spaced disturbances have severely disadvantaged Acropora populations over the last decade. Unless a longer (>10 years) disturbance-free interval can be maintained, a permanent shift away from Acropora dominance will be observed. A mortality rate of 99% in Acropora, as observed in 1996, is not sustainable if repetitive and neither is a disturbance frequency <15 years—each leading to population collapse. This shows that the severity and/or the spacing of the 1996–1998–2002 disturbances were unusual in frequency and duration.     

增温对农田土壤碳氮循环关键过程的影响

为研究模拟增温对农田土壤碳氮循环关键过程的影响,设置了包含增温和对照两个处理的随机区组试验.采用气压过程分离技术(BaPS)测定土壤CO2产生速率、硝化速率、反硝化速率,并测定了根生物量、水溶性有机碳(DOC)、亚硝酸根、硫酸根、硝酸根等指标.结果表明,在冬小麦-大豆轮作生长季,增温和对照处理的平均土壤CO2产生速率分别为(149.7±19.6)和(114.5±11.6) μg/(kg·h),增温和对照处理的平均土壤硝化速率分别为(563.6±119.56),(399.9±98.2)μg/(kg·h),增温和对照处理的平均土壤反硝化速率分别为(319.7±94.6), (216.2±44.7) μg/(kg·h).研究表明,无论是在冬小麦生长季还是在大豆生长季, 模拟增温均促进了土壤CO2产生速率,增温对大豆田土壤CO2产生速率的促进作用高于冬小麦田,并且这种促进作用主要体现在作物生长后期.模拟增温显著促进了冬小麦–大豆田的土壤硝化、反硝化速率,夏季增温对土壤硝化、反硝化速率的促进作用最明显.模拟增温对土壤中根生物量、DOC、亚硝酸根、硫酸根、硝酸根含量无显著影响.     

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION: THE CHALLENGE OF TRANSLATION1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change is examined from the perspective of its relevancy and urgency as a public policy issue. Interpreting from literature specific to investigations into public awareness and concern, climate change is seen as a legitimate though less than urgent issue. The literature reveals that the general public holds surprising misconceptions about the processes contributing to climate change, including failure to grasp the fundamental connection to CO₂. General ambivalence is also suggested from the results of two surveys conducted by The Groundwater Foundation. They first asked participants in a recent Groundwater Guardian Conference to rate levels of discussion and concern for water resources implications in the participants' communities. A second survey polled national water resource organizations about the extent climate change has been a focus of their educational, investigative, or advocacy efforts. The paper concludes by describing basic barriers to stimulating public response to climate change, which education about the issue should address, and by offering a model to educate and involve citizens based on the Groundwater Guardian program developed by the The Groundwater Foundation.     

Effects of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition on Remote Freshwater Ecosystems

We review known and hypothesized effects of nitrogen (N) deposition owing to human activities on the chemistry, organisms, and ecosystem processes of remote oligotrophic freshwaters. Acidification is the best-known effect of N deposition on water chemistry, but additional effects include increased nutrient availability and alteration of the balance between N and other nutrients. Our synthesis of the literature, framed in a comprehensive model for the effects of N deposition on natural ecosystems, shows that all these effects can reduce biological diversity and alter ecosystem processes in remote freshwaters. N deposition is projected to grow worldwide in the near future and will interact with other global changes. Present effects on these fragile ecosystems may be only early signs of more radical impacts ahead.     

Phosphate rock formation and marine phosphorus geochemistry: the deep time perspective

The role that phosphorite formation, the ultimate source rock for fertilizer phosphate reserves, plays in the marine phosphorus (P) cycle has long been debated. A shift has occurred from early models that evoked strikingly different oceanic P cycling during times of widespread phosphorite deposition to current thinking that phosphorite deposits may be lucky survivors of a series of inter-related tectonic, geochemical, sedimentological, and oceanic conditions. This paradigm shift has been facilitated by an awareness of the widespread nature of phosphogenesis—the formation of authigenic P-bearing minerals in marine sediments that contributes to phosphorite formation. This process occurs not just in continental margin sediments, but in deep sea oozes as well, and helps to clarify the driving forces behind phosphorite formation and links to marine P geochemistry.Two processes come into play to make phosphorite deposits: chemical dynamism and physical dynamism. Chemical dynamism involves the diagenetic release and subsequent concentration of P-bearing minerals particularly in horizons, controlled by a number of sedimentological and biogeochemical factors. Physical dynamism involves the reworking and sedimentary capping of P-rich sediments, which can either concentrate the relatively heavy and insoluble disseminated P-bearing minerals or provide an episodic change in sedimentology to concentrate chemically mobilized P. Both processes can result from along-margin current dynamics and/or sea level variations. Interestingly, net P accumulation rates are highest (i.e., the P removal pump is most efficient) when phosphorites are not forming. Both physical and chemical pathways involve processes not dominant in deep sea environments and in fact not often coincide in space and time even on continental margins, contributing to the rarity of high-quality phosphorite deposits and the limitation of phosphate rock reserves. This limitation is becoming critical, as the human demand for P far outstrips the geologic replacement for P and few prospects exist for new discoveries of phosphate rock.     

Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland – a modeling study

In this study, we assess the risks of global warming on distributions of individual tree species in Switzerland. Applying a spatially explicit model, tree occurrence is predicted as a function of high resolution and physiologically relevant biophysical variables. The study shows that warming only slightly alters the overall abundance of tree species. However, the preferred temperature regimes are unevenly distributed along an elevational gradient, and the sensitivity to temperature varies considerably between the species. As a result, major reorganizations of forests in montane and subalpine belts are expected, i.e., a segregation of the core distributions of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies is observed. Tree distribution potentials near timberlines, however, remain roughly the same. Electronic Publication     

Dead indoor plants strengthen belief in global warming

Studies have revealed that heuristics and accessible schemas may affect people's judgments about global warming. In two studies, participants were asked to report on beliefs regarding global warming while seated in a room in which a small tree or several trees had been placed. In one experimental condition, the tree possessed its foliage whereas in the other, the branches were bare. It was found that participants were more likely to believe in global warming in presence of the tree without foliage (Study 1), that this belief increased in presence of three rather than one tree without foliage (Study 2), and that other beliefs not related to global warming were not affected by the experimental conditions. These results reveal that surrounding physical cues do affect beliefs about global warming. The spreading activation theory is used to explain these results.     

Towards global phosphorus security: a systems framework for phosphorus recovery and reuse options

Human intervention in the global phosphorus cycle has mobilised nearly half a billion tonnes of the element from phosphate rock into the hydrosphere over the past half century. The resultant water pollution concerns have been the main driver for sustainable phosphorus use (including phosphorus recovery). However the emerging global challenge of phosphorus scarcity with serious implications for future food security, means phosphorus will also need to be recovered for productive reuse as a fertilizer in food production to replace increasingly scarce and more expensive phosphate rock. Through an integrated and systems framework, this paper examines the full spectrum of sustainable phosphorus recovery and reuse options (from small-scale low-cost to large-scale high-tech), facilitates integrated decision-making and identifies future opportunities and challenges for achieving global phosphorus security. Case studies are provided rather than focusing on a specific technology or process. There is no single solution to achieving a phosphorus-secure future: in addition to increasing phosphorus use efficiency, phosphorus will need to be recovered and reused from all current waste streams throughout the food production and consumption system (from human and animal excreta to food and crop wastes). There is a need for new sustainable policies, partnerships and strategic frameworks to develop renewable phosphorus fertilizer systems for farmers. Further research is also required to determine the most sustainable means in a given context for recovering phosphorus from waste streams and converting the final products into effective fertilizers, accounting for life cycle costs, resource and energy consumption, availability, farmer accessibility and pollution.