Review of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production systems and fertilizer management effects

Fertilizer nitrogen (N) use is expanding globally to satisfy food, fiber, and fuel demands of a growing world population. Fertilizer consumers are being asked to improve N use efficiency through better management in their fields, to protect water resources and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while sustaining soil resources and providing a healthy economy. A review of the available science on the effects of N source, rate, timing, and placement, in combination with other cropping and tillage practices, on GHG emissions was conducted. Implementation of intensive crop management practices, using principles of ecological intensification to enhance efficient and effective nutrient uptake while achieving high yields, was identified as a principal way to achieve reductions in GHG emissions while meeting production demands. Many studies identified through the review involved measurements of GHG emissions over several weeks to a few months, which greatly limit the ability to accurately determine system-level management effects on net global warming potential. The current science indicates: (1) appropriate fertilizer N use helps increase biomass production necessary to help restore and maintain soil organic carbon (SOC) levels; (2) best management practices (BMPs) for fertilizer N play a large role in minimizing residual soil nitrate, which helps lower the risk of increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions; (3) tillage practices that reduce soil disturbance and maintain crop residue on the soil surface can increase SOC levels, but usually only if crop productivity is maintained or increased; (4) differences among fertilizer N sources in N₂O emissions depend on site- and weather-specific conditions; and (5) intensive crop management systems do not necessarily increase GHG emissions per unit of crop or food production; they can help spare natural areas from conversion to cropland and allow conversion of selected lands to forests for GHG mitigation, while supplying the world's need for food, fiber, and biofuel. Transfer of the information to fertilizer dealers, crop advisers, farmers, and agricultural and environmental authorities should lead to increased implementation of fertilizer BMPs, and help to reduce confusion over the role of fertilizer N on cropping system emissions of GHGs. Gaps in scientific understanding were identified and will require the collaborative attention of agronomists, soil scientists, ecologists, and environmental authorities in serving the immediate and long-term interests of the human population.     

也谈全球气候变暖问题

全球气候变暖问题已成为一个人们热议的话题。通过分析全球气候变暖影响因素,得出全球气候变暖是众多因素共同影响的结果。其中自然因素是基本的影响因素,而人为因素则为主导性的影响因素。认为目前人类能够做到的也只能是提高环保意识,尽量减少温室气体的排放量和增加温室气体的吸收量,而对自然因素是无能为力的。中国应采取适合自己的措施应对全球变暖问题。同时分析了全球气候变化对人类以及生物圈的影响,认为全球气候变暖问题给人类带来更大的是灾难,而不是利益,因此要尽一切努力减缓气候变暖趋势甚至解决气候变暖问题。     

水旱轮作稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O排放的影响

甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）是仅次于二氧化碳（CO2）的重要温室气体,农田是大气CH4和N20的重要来源,但目前农业措施对CH4和N2O排放的影响尚不明确。以水旱轮作稻田旱作季休闲为对照,采用静态箱．气相色谱法研究了种植紫云英、黑麦草、冬小麦以及油菜等4种作物对稻田旱作季CH4和N2O排放及其温室效应的影响。结果表明：水旱轮作稻田旱作季CH4排放通量较低,而N2O排放较为明显。稻田旱作季CH4平均排放通量表现为油菜〉黑麦草〉冬小麦〉紫云英〉休闲,依次为8．96、7．19、6．94、6．52和6．02μg·m-2·h-1,季节N20平均排放通量的顺序是油菜（61．1lμg·m-2·h-1）〉冬小麦（52．5lag·m-2·h-1）〉黑麦草（34．0μg·m-2·h。）〉休闲（15.3lμg·m-2·h-1）〉紫云英（13．6lμg·m-2·h-1）。稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O季节总排放量的影响达到极显著水平（P〈0．01）,C144和N2O季节总排放量均以种植油菜为最大,分别达到43．2和294．7mg·m-2,比对照休闲增加49％和299％。种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草较对照休闲显著增加稻田旱作季总增温潜势（P〈0．05）,紫云英和休闲处理间总增温潜势无显著差异（P〉0．05）。研究表明,种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草等作物由于氮肥的施用增加了水旱轮作稻田旱作季温室效应。     

Development and test of a crop growth model for application within a Global Change decision support system

When examining potential impacts of Global Change on water resources on the regional scale, spatial and temporal changes in crop water and nitrogen demand are of fundamental significance. State-of-the-art crop growth models are powerful tools to assess the response of crops to altered environmental conditions and cultivation practices. In this paper, the process-based, object-oriented and generic DANUBIA crop growth model is presented. To evaluate the performance of the model, a validation analysis is carried out by comparing modelled data with various field measurements of sugar beet, spring barley, maize, winter wheat and potato crops. Model performance statistics show that crop growth is efficiently simulated. The closest agreement between measured and modelled biomass and leaf area index is achieved for sugar beet and winter wheat. Additionally, the response of the model to changed nitrogen availability caused by cultivation practices is analysed and reveals good results. The results suggest that the model is a suitable tool for numerically assessing the consequences of Global Change on biomass production, water and nitrogen demand, taking into account the complex interplay of water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes in agro-ecosystems.     

Vegetation Response to Early Holocene Warming as an Analog for Current and Future Changes

Abstract: Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5–4 °C over the next 60–90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid‐colonizing species should increase, whereas slow‐colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 °C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early‐successional species rapidly increased, whereas late‐successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less‐extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late‐successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early‐successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early‐successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century.     

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads (Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures (T_c) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate

We model coral community response to bleaching and mass mortality events which are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change. The model was parameterized for the Arabian/Persian Gulf, but is generally applicable. We assume three species groups (Acropora, faviids, and Porites) in two life-stages each where the juveniles are in competition but the adults can enter a size-refuge in which they cannot be competitively displaced. An aggressive group (Acropora species) dominates at equilibrium, which is not reached due to mass mortality events that primarily disadvantage this group (compensatory mortality, >90% versus 25% in faviids and Porites) roughly every 15 years. Population parameters (N individuals, carrying capacity) were calculated from satellite imagery and in situ transects, vital rates (fecundity, mortality, and survival) were derived from the model, field observations, and literature. It is shown that populations and unaltered community structure can persist despite repeated 90% mortality, given sufficiently high fecundity of the remaining population or import from connected populations. The frequency of disturbance determines the dominant group—in low frequency Acropora, in high frequency Porites. This is congruent with field observations. The model of an isolated population was more sensitive to parameter changes than that of connected populations. Highest sensitivity was to mortality rate and recruitment rate. Community composition was sensitive to spacing of disturbances and level of catastrophic mortality. Decreased mortality led to Acropora dominance, increased mortality led to Acropora extinction. In nature, closely spaced disturbances have severely disadvantaged Acropora populations over the last decade. Unless a longer (>10 years) disturbance-free interval can be maintained, a permanent shift away from Acropora dominance will be observed. A mortality rate of 99% in Acropora, as observed in 1996, is not sustainable if repetitive and neither is a disturbance frequency <15 years—each leading to population collapse. This shows that the severity and/or the spacing of the 1996–1998–2002 disturbances were unusual in frequency and duration.     

气候变暖对中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑采暖降温年耗电量的影响

20世纪80年代中期以来的气候变暖,尤其是90年代中期以来的气候显著变暖带给社会经济发展的利与弊,一直以来受到广泛关注。气候变暖对于建筑耗能,尤其是对采暖和降温总耗能的影响很值得研究。论文以主要使用电能进行空间调节的中国夏热冬冷地区为对象,以《夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准JCJ134-2001》中所规定的采暖、降温耗电量限值为依据,研究了气候变暖对该区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量、降温年耗电量及采暖降温年耗电总量的影响。结果表明,1986年以来的气候变暖,尤其是1996年以来的气候显著变暖,理论上使夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量降低;同时增加了相当一部分地区居住建筑单位面积降温年耗电量;除个别地区外,气候变暖理论上使中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖降温耗电总量普遍下降。     

辽宁省大雾演变规律及对气候变暖的响应研究

利用辽宁省25个代表站1951—2005年的大雾资料,分析了辽宁省大雾雾日异常的空间分布特征、时间演变规律、雾与全球变暖及污染的关系.结果表明:受气候变暖的影响,辽宁省沿海地区大雾日数逐年递增,内陆地区大雾日数逐年递减;空气污染的减轻也是造成沈阳市雾日减少的原因之一;大雾的地域分布呈现“两高三低”的形势,沿海地区的大雾主要出现在4—7月,内陆地区的大雾主要出现在9月—次年1月;全省大雾雾日呈线性增加趋势,增加的趋势比较平稳,呈现以10年左右周期交替变化;在20世纪80年代前,沈阳大雾存在2种变化周期,分别为6～8和15年,80年代后仅存在15年的周期变化.