哈尔滨市高空气候变暖变化分析

依据哈尔滨市1970-2005年的探空资料,采用线性模拟、相关和回归等分析方法,对哈尔滨市35年来地面及高空气候的变化进行分析和预测。研究结果认为:①哈尔滨市对流层中下层、平流层下层气候变化明显,对流层中下层气候变暖变湿,且对流层下层经向风速变小,年平均风速也变小,其中值得关注的是温度升高可延伸到400hPa,比湿增加也从地面延伸到400hPa;②建立了二氧化碳与水汽之间的关系方程,二氧化碳增加,水汽含量也随之增加,二氧化碳每增加一个单位,水汽就增加0.011g/kg;③各层次温度与比湿存在线性关系,水汽对各层次温度所起到的增加作用,随高度的增加增温效果越明显。     

Four challenges to an effective national nature assessment

Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.     

水旱轮作稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O排放的影响

甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）是仅次于二氧化碳（CO2）的重要温室气体,农田是大气CH4和N20的重要来源,但目前农业措施对CH4和N2O排放的影响尚不明确。以水旱轮作稻田旱作季休闲为对照,采用静态箱．气相色谱法研究了种植紫云英、黑麦草、冬小麦以及油菜等4种作物对稻田旱作季CH4和N2O排放及其温室效应的影响。结果表明：水旱轮作稻田旱作季CH4排放通量较低,而N2O排放较为明显。稻田旱作季CH4平均排放通量表现为油菜〉黑麦草〉冬小麦〉紫云英〉休闲,依次为8．96、7．19、6．94、6．52和6．02μg·m-2·h-1,季节N20平均排放通量的顺序是油菜（61．1lμg·m-2·h-1）〉冬小麦（52．5lag·m-2·h-1）〉黑麦草（34．0μg·m-2·h。）〉休闲（15.3lμg·m-2·h-1）〉紫云英（13．6lμg·m-2·h-1）。稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O季节总排放量的影响达到极显著水平（P〈0．01）,C144和N2O季节总排放量均以种植油菜为最大,分别达到43．2和294．7mg·m-2,比对照休闲增加49％和299％。种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草较对照休闲显著增加稻田旱作季总增温潜势（P〈0．05）,紫云英和休闲处理间总增温潜势无显著差异（P〉0．05）。研究表明,种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草等作物由于氮肥的施用增加了水旱轮作稻田旱作季温室效应。     

Development and test of a crop growth model for application within a Global Change decision support system

When examining potential impacts of Global Change on water resources on the regional scale, spatial and temporal changes in crop water and nitrogen demand are of fundamental significance. State-of-the-art crop growth models are powerful tools to assess the response of crops to altered environmental conditions and cultivation practices. In this paper, the process-based, object-oriented and generic DANUBIA crop growth model is presented. To evaluate the performance of the model, a validation analysis is carried out by comparing modelled data with various field measurements of sugar beet, spring barley, maize, winter wheat and potato crops. Model performance statistics show that crop growth is efficiently simulated. The closest agreement between measured and modelled biomass and leaf area index is achieved for sugar beet and winter wheat. Additionally, the response of the model to changed nitrogen availability caused by cultivation practices is analysed and reveals good results. The results suggest that the model is a suitable tool for numerically assessing the consequences of Global Change on biomass production, water and nitrogen demand, taking into account the complex interplay of water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes in agro-ecosystems.     

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads (Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures (T_c) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.     

Vegetation Response to Early Holocene Warming as an Analog for Current and Future Changes

Abstract: Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5–4 °C over the next 60–90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid‐colonizing species should increase, whereas slow‐colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 °C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early‐successional species rapidly increased, whereas late‐successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less‐extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late‐successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early‐successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early‐successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century.     

Paris agreement on climate change and Botswana’s Vision 2036: an examination of linkages

Sustainable use of natural resources and sustainable development are concepts that are gaining momentum globally in the advent of global warming and climate change. The threshold for the entry in force of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change was achieved exactly 5 days after the unveiling of Botswana’s Vision 2036 document. This development framework envisages sustainable economic development and climate change adaptation. This article uses exploratory research methodology of systematic document analysis to analyze these principles in the context of Botswana. It investigates government's intentions in achieving the third pillar of the national vision. Botswana has declared its intensions to reduce carbon emissions by 15% by 2030 through the intended nationally determined contributions. While the country’s ambitions are largely forward-looking and aligned with those of the Paris Agreement, the economic diversification plans of Botswana threaten to potentially contribute significantly to the emission of greenhouse gases. The article applies sustainability and/or sustainable development theory in examining the relationship between the Paris Agreement and Botswana’s vision. It concludes that there is link between the two documents, both of which are anchored of the development which is environmentally sustainable. It further concludes that developing nations should make international commitments which are aligned to their developmental plans.     

Climate Change and YouTube: Deliberation Potential in Post-video Discussions

YouTube videos are a ubiquitous source of information but also a venue for users to comment on discussion boards that addend videos. There are no moderators of these discussions, and thus there is a possibility for self-appointed leaders to emerge, responding incessantly and across a genre of videos. These “elites,” as they are labelled here, use the discussion as a personal campaign tool, diminishing the deliberative potential of provocative topics. To determine whether this is happening and to complement existing research analyzing the content of comments, this paper focuses on the structure of the discussions that follow the most popular climate change-related videos. Network analysis confirms that discussions can be elite-driven, appearing in two different network structure types. Among the core group of elite commenters, most are either climate change activists or sceptics, and the most prolific commenters among this core group are activists.     

A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO₂). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.

Understanding Managers’ Views of Global Environmental Risk

This research investigated managers’ views of two global environmental risks: climate change and loss of biodiversity. The intent was to understand why different managers place varying levels of attention and priority on these issues. The data came from in-depth interviews with 28 senior corporate managers across Canada and a range of sectors, although most were employed in the energy sector. Approximately half had direct environmental responsibilities and half had other management duties. Grounded theory was used to collect and analyze the data. From the results, a theoretical framework was constructed to explain important factors that can influence managers’ mental models of environmental risk. Four factors relevant to managers’ appraisal of the threat of environmental risk include: (1) salience, (2) intrinsic value of nature, (3) knowledge, and (4) perceived resilience of nature. In addition, four factors relevant to managers’ view of the appeal of a particular response strategy were: (1) avoidability, (2) perceived costs and benefits, (3) fairness and equity, and (4) effectiveness. The time horizon for decision making was seen as being important in both portions of the mental model.