水旱轮作稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O排放的影响

甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）是仅次于二氧化碳（CO2）的重要温室气体,农田是大气CH4和N20的重要来源,但目前农业措施对CH4和N2O排放的影响尚不明确。以水旱轮作稻田旱作季休闲为对照,采用静态箱．气相色谱法研究了种植紫云英、黑麦草、冬小麦以及油菜等4种作物对稻田旱作季CH4和N2O排放及其温室效应的影响。结果表明：水旱轮作稻田旱作季CH4排放通量较低,而N2O排放较为明显。稻田旱作季CH4平均排放通量表现为油菜〉黑麦草〉冬小麦〉紫云英〉休闲,依次为8．96、7．19、6．94、6．52和6．02μg·m-2·h-1,季节N20平均排放通量的顺序是油菜（61．1lμg·m-2·h-1）〉冬小麦（52．5lag·m-2·h-1）〉黑麦草（34．0μg·m-2·h。）〉休闲（15.3lμg·m-2·h-1）〉紫云英（13．6lμg·m-2·h-1）。稻田旱作季种植不同作物对CH4和N2O季节总排放量的影响达到极显著水平（P〈0．01）,C144和N2O季节总排放量均以种植油菜为最大,分别达到43．2和294．7mg·m-2,比对照休闲增加49％和299％。种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草较对照休闲显著增加稻田旱作季总增温潜势（P〈0．05）,紫云英和休闲处理间总增温潜势无显著差异（P〉0．05）。研究表明,种植油菜、冬小麦和黑麦草等作物由于氮肥的施用增加了水旱轮作稻田旱作季温室效应。     

Development and test of a crop growth model for application within a Global Change decision support system

When examining potential impacts of Global Change on water resources on the regional scale, spatial and temporal changes in crop water and nitrogen demand are of fundamental significance. State-of-the-art crop growth models are powerful tools to assess the response of crops to altered environmental conditions and cultivation practices. In this paper, the process-based, object-oriented and generic DANUBIA crop growth model is presented. To evaluate the performance of the model, a validation analysis is carried out by comparing modelled data with various field measurements of sugar beet, spring barley, maize, winter wheat and potato crops. Model performance statistics show that crop growth is efficiently simulated. The closest agreement between measured and modelled biomass and leaf area index is achieved for sugar beet and winter wheat. Additionally, the response of the model to changed nitrogen availability caused by cultivation practices is analysed and reveals good results. The results suggest that the model is a suitable tool for numerically assessing the consequences of Global Change on biomass production, water and nitrogen demand, taking into account the complex interplay of water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes in agro-ecosystems.     

Vegetation Response to Early Holocene Warming as an Analog for Current and Future Changes

Abstract: Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5–4 °C over the next 60–90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid‐colonizing species should increase, whereas slow‐colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 °C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early‐successional species rapidly increased, whereas late‐successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less‐extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late‐successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early‐successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early‐successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century.     

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads (Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures (T_c) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.     

也谈全球气候变暖问题

全球气候变暖问题已成为一个人们热议的话题。通过分析全球气候变暖影响因素,得出全球气候变暖是众多因素共同影响的结果。其中自然因素是基本的影响因素,而人为因素则为主导性的影响因素。认为目前人类能够做到的也只能是提高环保意识,尽量减少温室气体的排放量和增加温室气体的吸收量,而对自然因素是无能为力的。中国应采取适合自己的措施应对全球变暖问题。同时分析了全球气候变化对人类以及生物圈的影响,认为全球气候变暖问题给人类带来更大的是灾难,而不是利益,因此要尽一切努力减缓气候变暖趋势甚至解决气候变暖问题。     

冰箱CFCs及其替代物的温室效应比较

估算了 1980年到 2 0 2 5年国内家用冰箱用 CFCs及其替代物的年排放量 ,结果表明 CFC- 12和CFC- 11较高的排放期在 2 0 0 8年至 2 0 2 4年 ,年排放量在 2 96 9吨到 5 879吨 ODS之间 (以 CFC- 11为参照 ) ,CFCs的替代物的排放量在 2 0 2 5年后会继续增加。本文推导了 CFCs、HFC- 134a和 HCFC- 141b的年累积滞留量和以 CO2 为参考气体的当量变暖指数 (EWI,Equivalent Warm ing Index)的计算公式。计算结果表明它们的年累积滞留量和 WEI从 1980年到 2 0 2 5年一直在增加 ,2 0 2 5年后前者开始下降 ,后二者继续增加。与 CFCs、HFC-134a和 H CFC- 141b的 WEI相比较碳氢化合物的 WEI可忽略不计 ,与 CFCs相比较 ,HFC- 134a和 HCFC- 141b的 EWI仍不可忽略     

生物炭对土CH4、N2O排放的影响

为了探讨生物炭对土CH₄、N₂O排放的影响,采用田间小区试验,测定了生物炭不同添加量（0、20、40、60、80 t·hm^-2）下冬小麦田CH₄、N₂O的吸收/排放通量、小麦产量、土壤有机碳、土壤含水率及不同土层土壤温度.结果表明,CH₄、N₂O的吸收/排放通量随生育期不同变化明显.添加生物炭后,CH₄累积吸收量增加了12.88%~71.61%,当添加量≥ 40 t·hm^-2时,增"汇"作用达到显著水平,且添加量为40 t·hm^-2时CH₄累积吸收量最高;N₂O累积排放量和全球增温潜势与对照相比没有显著差异;温室气体强度降低了13.24%~22.14%.添加生物炭提高了冬小麦产量,增产幅度为1.72%~32.19%,当添加量 ≥ 40 t·hm^-2时,麦田增产效果达到显著水平,40 t·hm^-2生物炭为麦田增产的最适添加量.同时,添加生物炭显著提高了土壤有机碳和土壤含水率,与对照相比,分别增加了1.42~2.69倍、7.08%~11.96%.综合来看,试验土表现为CH₄汇和N₂O源的功能,40 t·hm^-2是其适宜的生物炭添加量.     

现行脱硫技术存在排放温室气体的隐患

工业革命以来,由于人类活动持续大量排放温室气体,使得全球出现了持续性的气候变暖趋势,而为了治理局部的和区域的SO2污染问题,大规模的脱硫活动在我国急速增加,这势必大幅增加CO2的排放,加剧气候变暖的进程,如果我国大型火电厂的脱硫率达到80%,按照2005年全国SO2排放量已经达到0.2549Gt计算,采用现行脱硫方法将每年向大气中排放0.088Gt的CO2。将占我国CO2年排放量的10%,对人类赖以生存的地球形成严重威胁。因而,需要研究脱硫的无碳工艺,以及碳捕集、碳储存、碳利用技术,树立综合的环境意识,在控制大气污染、减排温室气体与保护臭氧层方面寻找结合点。     

Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?

Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.     

Assessing species reintroduction sites based on future climate suitability for food resources

The reintroduction of a species that is extinct in the wild demands caution because reintroduction locations may be associated with threats, such as hunting, poor-quality habitat, and climate change. This is the case for Cyanopsitta spixii (Spix's Macaw), which has been extinct in the wild since 2000. The few living individuals were created in captivity and will be used in a reintroduction project within the species’ original distribution area, the Caatinga domain (Brazil). Because the occurrence records for this bird are old and inaccurate, we investigated the current and future environmental suitability of the 14 plant species used by C. spixii as resource. These plants are key elements for the long-term reestablishment of the species in the wild, so the use of models helps in the assessment of the effects of climate change on the availability of these resources for the species and informs selection of the best places for reintroduction. We based our models of environmental suitability on 19 bioclimatic variables and nine physical soil and topography variables. Climate projections were created for the present and for the year 2070 with an optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) climate scenario. Both future climate scenarios lead to a reduction in area of environmental suitability that overlapped for all the plant species: 33% reduction for SSP2-4.5 and 63% reduction for SSP5-8.5. If our projections materialize, climate change could thus affect the distribution of key resources, and the maintenance of C. spixii would depend on restoration of degraded areas, especially riparian forests, and the preservation of already existing natural areas. The Caatinga domain is very threatened by habitat loss and, for the success of this reintroduction project, the parties involved must act to protect the species and the resources it uses.