升温对铜锈环棱螺形态及春季个体增补影响的模拟实验研究

气候变暖已成为近几十年研究的热点,但是有关温度升高对螺类形态变化的研究还为数不多。利用中型室外模拟控制系统(Mesocosm)模拟百年之后长江中下游地区浅水湖泊水生态系统,实验设置对照组与升温组两个处理,以此探求水体温度升高对铜锈环棱螺(Bellamya aeruginosa)形态的影响。应用几何形态测量学得到铜锈环棱螺壳高、壳宽、轮廓面积与周长4个形态参数,并分别与质量进行回归分析。通过协方差分析比较两种处理回归方程的差异,发现螺类周长随温度升高发生显著变化,同时升温增加了螺类春季个体增补数量。升温对于螺类形态变化影响体现在以下3方面:升温显著增加了铜锈环棱螺的密度,加剧了种群个体间竞争,促使性成熟个体趋于小型化;升温改变铜锈环棱螺食物质量,通过影响螺类生长过程对螺类形态变化产生作用;升温改变了水体p H值,进而影响螺类外壳的钙化率和水体中钙可利用程度,对螺类外壳形成产生直接的影响,最终导致螺类形态变化。     

Transnational multistakeholder partnerships for sustainable development: Conditions for success

This perspective discusses nine conditions for enhancing the performance of multistakeholder partnerships for sustainable development. Such partnerships have become mainstream implementation mechanisms for attaining international sustainable development goals and are also frequently used in other adjacent policy domains such as climate change, health and biodiversity. While multistakeholder arrangements are widely perceived as a positive contribution to addressing global change, few studies have systematically evaluated the existing evidence for their positive performance. This poses an urgent and important challenge for researchers and practitioners to understand and improve the effectiveness of partnerships, in particular since their popularity increases despite their past track record. The recommendations presented are based on own research, a literature survey and discussions with a large number or international Civil Society Organizations at two occasions during 2014. This article proceeds as follows: first, we define multistakeholder partnerships, outline their rational and summarize available assessments on partnership success; second, we provide a set of concrete recommendations based on lessons-learned from over 10 years of scholarship; and third, we conclude with some reflections on the future of multistakeholder governance for sustainability.     

气候变暖对黑龙江省灾害气候影响及减灾对策

黑龙江省自上世纪80年代以来的20年里，年均温度较前30年上升了1℃。增温最大的季节是冬季，增温1．6℃，其次春季，夏秋季分列第3，4位；增温高值中心在呼玛。增温主要表现在最低气温的增高，年平均最低气温增高1．7℃，年较差变小1．16℃。气候变暖对灾害天气的影响包括：(1)风速减弱，大风次数减少；(2)暴雨次数增加；(3)干旱增强；(4)大涝次数减少；(5)低温次数减少；(6)初霜日后延；(7)寒潮次数减少；(8)大雪次数增加。针对这一情况，提出了防灾减灾的3项对策。     

Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability

The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example, catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake, which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence, countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming, methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally, the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories, we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally, possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular, special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands, which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence.     

Greenhouse gas emissions along the rural-urban gradient

This paper investigates how land use relates to greenhouse gas emissions, using data sources that are readily available to municipal planners. It presents a causal framework linking settlement patterns to greenhouse gas emissions via landscape impacts (deforestation, carbon sequestration by soils and plants, urban heat island), infrastructure impacts (transportation-related emissions, waste management-related emissions, electric transmission and distribution losses) and buildings (residential, commercial). This is not a full accounting because it does not include impacts from industrial activities, agriculture and consumer behavior not related to land use, such as food consumption and air travel. Exploratory case studies of municipalities lying along a gradient of increasing population density suggest that per-capita carbon dioxide emissions vary widely, following an inverted ‘U’ shape, with post-war suburbs riding the pinnacle. Reflecting their central regional roles, municipalities with good jobs-to-housing ratios have higher per-capita emissions because they host both residential and commercial buildings. Buildings typically contribute more emissions than personal transportation. Vehicle-miles traveled per capita shrink most dramatically at very high population densities and where transit options exist. Changing land-use patterns is a political challenge because localism and outdated zoning ordinances subvert regional solutions. Technical fixes, especially green buildings, must be part of the solution.     

The impact of coastal flooding on conservation areas: A study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland

This study examines the impact of flooding on land of high conservation value located along part of the southern shoreline of the River Clyde Estuary in western Scotland. This paper hypothesizes that, over the next 50 years, the frequency and extent of coastal flooding will increase due to the gradual effect of global warming and the consequent rise in sea-level and increase in storminess. It is argued that because of the great cost of constructing new flood defence systems it will not be possible to protect all land areas to an equal extent from flooding. A means of ranking different land use will be necessary so that society can make a rational judgement concerning which sections of coastline will be worth protecting. This study provides a methodology that combines an objective ranking of conservation areas using non-economic indicators with a GIS model of flood potential, and permits accurate forecasts of flood losses to conservation areas of different ecological value. The conservation case study used in this paper proposes the use of an ecological weighting value based on five ecological variables each of 10 categories. Tables and maps identify the sites that have been highlighted as consisting of the most ‘valuable’ conservation sites. The methodology makes extensive use of geographical information systems (GIS) to model the predicted areas of flooding and to calculate conservation weighting values of the land areas.     

太湖蓝藻水华预警监测综合系统的构建

近年来随着浅水型湖泊的富营养化进程不断加快,蓝藻水华暴发现象也频繁出现,采用科学、全面的手段对太湖蓝藻暴发进行预警十分必要。根据太湖蓝藻预警监测中使用的现场巡视、卫星遥感、实验室分析、自动监测等监测技术手段,分别建立各自监测系统,结合各监测系统特点和相互关系,对太湖蓝藻水华预警监测综合系统的构建进行了探讨,以期能够更好地开展太湖蓝藻水华预警监测工作,为确保太湖地区饮用水安全,提高环保部门应对太湖蓝藻水华暴发的能力,为政府决策提供技术支持和保障。     

Human bones obtained from routine joint replacement surgery as a tool for studies of plutonium, americium and ⁹⁰Sr body-burden in general public

The paper presents a new sampling method for studying in-body radioactive contamination by bone-seeking radionuclides such as ⁹⁰Sr, ^239+240Pu, ²³⁸Pu, ²⁴¹Am and selected gamma-emitters, in human bones. The presented results were obtained for samples retrieved from routine surgeries, namely knee or hip joints replacements with implants, performed on individuals from Southern Poland. This allowed to collect representative sets of general public samples. The applied analytical radiochemical procedure for bone matrix is described in details. Due to low concentrations of ²³⁸Pu the ratio of Pu isotopes which might be used for Pu source identification is obtained only as upper limits other then global fallout (for example Chernobyl) origin of Pu. Calculated concentrations of radioisotopes are comparable to the existing data from post-mortem studies on human bones retrieved from autopsy or exhumations. Human bones removed during knee or hip joint surgery provide a simple and ethical way for obtaining samples for plutonium, americium and ⁹⁰Sr in-body contamination studies in general public.     

Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Global change affects alpine ecosystems by, among many effects, by altering plant distributions and community composition. However, forecasting alpine vegetation change is challenged by a scarcity of studies observing change in fixed plots spanning decadal-time scales. We present in this article a probabilistic modeling approach that forecasts vegetation change on Niwot Ridge, CO using plant abundance data collected from marked plots established in 1971 and resampled in 1991 and 2001. Assuming future change can be inferred from past change, we extrapolate change for 100 years from 1971 and correlate trends for each plant community with time series environmental data (1971–2001). Models predict a decreased extent of Snowbed vegetation and an increased extent of Shrub Tundra by 2071. Mean annual maximum temperature and nitrogen deposition were the primary a posteriori correlates of plant community change. This modeling effort is useful for generating hypotheses of future vegetation change that can be tested with future sampling efforts.