近60年黄河流域典型区域气温突变与变暖停滞研究

以黄河流域典型区域-黄河流域内蒙古段为研究区,采用1951~2012年62年气温区域平均数据,应用M-K检验等方法对研究区区域平均最高气温、平均气温、平均最低气温突变前后变化及气温突变后变暖停滞特征进行了分析.结果表明：年（季）平均最低气温首先发生突变（1977~1987年）,平均气温次之（1978~1993年）,平均最高气温最晚（1978~1994年）,平均最高气温与平均气温秋、冬季发生突变时间一样;年内突变早晚顺序为冬季最早（1977~1978）,夏季最晚（1987~1994）.冬季比夏季、平均最高气温比平均最低气温变化更剧烈.平均最低气温（0.231~0.604℃/10a）对升温贡献较大.各类气温年（季）突变后在1997~2007年间先后发生变暖停滞现象,春季和冬季首先发生变暖停滞,秋季较晚,夏季未停滞,年气温最晚（2007年）,大部分年（季）气温要素变暖停滞晚于全球变暖停滞时间（1998年）.年际气温突变后到停滞前平均最高气温的升温速率相对最慢,而其停滞后降温速率反而最快,平均最低气温与其相反,初步说明平均最低气温对升温反应较为明显,平均最高气温对降温反应较为明显.季节中,突变后到气温停滞前,春季平均最高气温增长速率最快;气温停滞后,春季最低气温下降速率最快（-0.324℃/a¹）.     

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (Korea) are conducting a government-commissioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries (CJKFTA) to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environmental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA’s possible impact on China’s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China’s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA’s scale and composition effects on China’s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 database and China’s energy-environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO₂ and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.     

黑龙江省过去20年粮食作物种植格局变化及其气候背景

根据黑龙江省1980～1999年的气候资料和1980～2000年水稻、小麦、玉米等主要粮食作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变化背景下黑龙江省主要粮食作物的种植格局和种植界限变化情况。结果表明:在过去20年里,全省主要粮食作物的播种面积变化显著。特别是进入20世纪90年代,水稻播种范围向北向东扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加;小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向北退缩;玉米则在保持一个相对稳定的比例关系的基础上,逐渐向北部和东部伸展。粮食种植结构的这种调整使水稻逐渐取代小麦成为黑龙江省主要粮食作物之一,并最终导致该区主要粮食作物种植格局从以小麦和玉米为主转变为以玉米和水稻为主。上述粮食作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。     

Reduction of CO2 emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target

The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO₂ on a global scale. In a previous paper, the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here, this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO₂, for the period of 1996–2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004, and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%, relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are, however, relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently, controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO₂ concentration target.     

The rise of thermophilic sea urchins and the expansion of barren grounds in the Mediterranean Sea

Recent ecological studies have shown a strong relation between temperature, echinoids and their grazing effects on macro-algal communities. In this study, we speculate that climate warming may result in an increasingly favourable environment for the reproduction and development of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula. The relationship between increased A. lixula density and the extent of barren grounds in the Mediterranean Sea is also discussed.     

基于GPS/RFID组合定位的缆机塔机防碰撞系统研究

为了防止水电工程项目中大型施工设备之间发生碰撞现象,应用GPS和RFID组合定位技术对施工设备进行实时定位,并根据设备间不同的相对运动情况,考虑设备运行过程中需满足的安全距离,建立了施工设备防碰撞的模型。实验结果表明,采用这种施工设备防碰撞系统能够及时准确的对施工设备之间的碰撞现象进行预警,确保设备的安全运行,具有较高的可靠性。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of alpine ecotones: A spatial explicit model targeting altitudinal vegetation shifts

There is general agreement in literature that Alpine vegetation belt ecotones have shown a trend of upward migration in the last few decades. Despite the potential of such shifts as indicators of global change effects in mountain ecosystems, there are relatively few works focused on their assessment in a systematic and spatially explicit way. In this work our aim is to quantify the altitudinal shifts and analyse the spatial pattern dynamics of mountain ecotones. We developed a novel procedure to delineate the current and former state of three characteristic mountain ecotones, which we formalised as forest, tree and tundra lines. Our approach is based on the recognition of altitudinal extreme outposts identified with ecotone locations at a slope scale. The integration of multi-temporal datasets allows the identification and quantification of altitudinal advances and retreats in the outpost locations for a given period. We tested the method in a section of the Italian Alps for the period 1957-2003. Results show a general trend of an increase in altitude for the three ecotones, despite the occurrence of occasional decreases. We estimate decadal altitude increments of 25 m for forest line, 13 m for treeline and 11 m for tundra line. We also identified changes in ecotone spatial morphology between the two dates, with significant implications in connectivity and colonisation dynamics.     

不同施肥处理对红壤晚稻田CH4排放的影响

选取不同施肥处理的双季稻田为研究对象,采用静态箱一气相色谱法对晚稻田CH4排放通量进行观测。结果表明,与不施肥对照（T1）相比,各施肥处理CH4排放通量均有不同程度增加。其中秸秆还田＋化肥处理（T5）CH4平均排放通量为9．96mg·m^-2·h^-1,比增氮磷施肥处理（T4）和对照分别增加26．1％和120．0％;平衡施肥处理（T2）和减氮磷施肥处理（T3）CH4平均擗放通量比对照增加20％左右。说明施化肥可能提高水稻植株运输能力,进而增加CH4排放,但并未发现施化肥处理（T1、T2、T3和T4）之间CH4排放存在显菩差异。同时对相关环境因素的分析表明,各处理CH4排放通量与土壤5cm深处温度间存在指数函数关系,并与田间水层厚度呈正相关关系（P〈0．05）。综合考虑温室效应和稻谷产量,认为他为推荐施肥方式,即N、P2O5和K2O施用量分别为180、90和135kg·hm^-2,在插秧前1d施入占总N量70％的碳铵和全部磷肥、钾肥（过磷酸钙和氯化钾）作为基肥,并存分蘖期（2008年7月19日）追施占总N量30％的尿素。     

不同种植制度对稻田旱作季节CH4和N2O排放的影响

通过大田试验研究了稻田旱作季节几种典型种植制度对CH4和N2O排放的影响,包括休闲（fallow）、油菜对照（OR-ck）、小麦对照（W-ck）、油菜施N（OR-N）和小麦施N（W-N）5个处理。试验结果表明,稻田旱作季节N2O排放明显,CH4排放量较低,甚至表现为弱的CH4汇。稻田旱作季节N2O排放除受到N肥和种植制度影响外,还受土壤含水量影响,施N处理显著促进了N2O排放,降雨后N2O排放明显。小麦和油菜施N处理N2O平均排放通量分别为18.51和13.47μg·m^-2·h^-1,季节累积排放量分别为87.31和59.48 mg·m^-2,均显著高于对照和休闲处理。不同作物种类间N2O平均排放通量无显著差异,N2O季节累积排放量则表现为小麦显著高于油菜。各处理综合温室效应（100 a）依次为：OR-N〉W-N〉W-ck〉fallow〉OR-ck。各施N处理综合温室效应以N2O为主,但各无N处理则以CH4为主,也不容忽视。     

大型火电厂热排放对环境气温增高的贡献检测

利用1960—2009年的年月平均气温观测资料,分析了被检站和参考站的年、季变化趋势特点,着重研究了大型火电厂的热排放对当地气温的影响程度和相对贡献比例。从增温趋势看,被检站和参考站年平均气温增温速率分别为0.33～0.48℃？10a和0.21～0.33℃？10a,年热排放增温率为0.11～0.20℃？10a。热排放引起的四季增温速率为春秋强,冬季次之,夏季最小。火电厂的热排放对当地气温增温的贡献显著,表现为夏季最大,春秋季次之,冬季最小,对年平均气温序列的增温贡献率为31%～49%。