基于人工神经网络模型预测2017~2018年成都市危险废物增量研究

危险废物对环境或者人体健康会造成有害影响,有效地预测其产量是优化管理和合理处置的重要依据。以2008~2016年成都市危险废物产生量为基础,通过数据带入和整合及综合各参数因子的影响,利用人工神经网络模型预测方法客观反映并预测成都市危废产量的变化趋势。结果表明该模型预测2017~2018年成都市危险废物年产量分别达到24.46万t和26.88万t,模拟精度偏差低。因此,人工神经网络模型可以作为一种预测危险废物产生量的工具,其预测结果可以为职能部门提供决策参考。     

基于Apriori算法的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故关键致险因素的挖掘

导致易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素繁多、关系复杂,挖掘关键致险因素是减少管理成本、提高防控效率的关键。研究了200例事故等级为较大事故以上的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的原因,采用事故树分析法建立易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故树,并运用频度统计法遴选出致险因素;在此基础上,建立基于Apriori算法的关联规则模型进行数据挖掘,共得到14个关键致险因素。通过对关键致险因素与易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故之间关联规则的分析表明,关键致险因素与事故之间存在强关联规则,单一关键致险因素或其组合的存在必将导致事故的发生,为实现危险化学品储运精准化安全管理提供参考。     

Dangerous good transportation by road: from risk analysis to emergency planning

Despite the relative recent move towards inherent safe materials, the relentless drive of consumerism requires increased quantities of dangerous goods to be manufactured, transported, stored and used year on year. The safety and effectiveness of road transport systems is to be considered a strategic goal in particular in those countries, like Italy, in which 80% of goods are transported by this means. In this paper, we face the risk from dangerous good transport by presenting a site-oriented framework for risk assessment and developing a theoretical approach for emergency planning and optimisation. In the first step, we collected field data on a pilot highway and developed a database useful to allow a realistic evaluation of the accident frequency on a given route, by means of multivariate statistical analysis. To this end, we considered both inherent factors (such as tunnels, bend radii, height gradient, slope etc), meteorological factors, and traffic factors (traffic frequency of tank truck, dangerous good truck etc.) suitable to modify the standard national accident frequency. By applying the results to a pilot area, referring to flammable and explosive scenarios, we performed a risk assessment sensitive to route features and population exposed. The results show that the risk associated to the transport of hazardous materials, in some highway stretches, can be at the boundary of the acceptability level of risk set down by the well known F/N curves established in the Netherlands. On this basis, in the subsequent step, we developed a theoretical approach, based on the graph theory, to plan optimal emergency actions. The effectiveness of an emergency planning can normally be evaluated in term of system quickness and reliability. As a case study, we applied the developed approach to identify optimal consistency and localisation in the pilot area of ‘prompt action vehicles’, properly equipped, quick to move and ready for every eventuality. Applying this method results in an unambiguous and consistent selection criterion that allows reduction of intervention time, in connection with technical and economic optimisation of emergency equipment.     

Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.     

Acid Volatile Sulfides,Equilibrium Partitioning,and Hazardous Waste Site Sediments

/ Information provided by acid volatile sulfide (AVS) andequilibrium partitioning (EqP) theory is described, including two caseexamples, relative to hazardous waste site sediments. AVS and EqP are toolsin the toolbox, which can serve three main functions: screening,prioritization, and assisting in explaining observed effects. They should notbe used in isolation for decision making, particularly at hazardous waste orother sites where the sediments are contaminated by materials such as coal,coke, and pitch.KEY WORDS: Acid volatile sulfides; Equilibrium partitioning; Sediments;Hazardous waste     

Air quality assessment for land disposal of industrial wastes

Air pollution from hazardous waste landfills and lagoons is largely unknown. Routine monitoring of toxic air contaminants associated with hazardous waste facilities is difficult and very costly. The method presented in this paper would be useful for air quality assessment in the absence of monitoring data. It may be used as a screening process to examine the question of whether or not volatilization is considered to be significant for a given contaminant and also to evaluate permit applications for new hazardous waste facilities concerning waste volatilization problems.     

我国石棉替代品生产、使用、危害及防护措施状况

虽然石棉的用途广泛、价格低廉 ,但因其危害严重 ,存在着致癌问题 ,部分发达国家对石棉的使用进行了严格限制 ;为了降低石棉对人体健康的伤害 ,国际上大力提倡使用石棉替代品。针对我国石棉替代品使用的现状 ,重点对目前使用最多的石棉替代品 :玻璃棉、岩棉等的生产、使用、危害及其防护措施状况进行了概要的回顾和简单分析。     

有害物质安全存贮地点的选址模型研究

有害物质对人类自身及其所处的环境造成的危害日益受到人们的重视 ,因此有必要选择适宜的地点安全存贮这些物质。笔者从总成本和危害程度两方面考虑 ,建立了双目标规划模型 ,力求使选址费用最低、对周围居民的危害最小。最后的实例说明模型是合理的。     

Binational management of hazardous waste: The maquiladora industry at the US-Mexico border

Foreign-owned industry in the form of assembly plants, termed maquiladora, has become very important in Mexico to the extent that it represents the second largest source of foreign exchange and is a valuable source for employment and regional development. The economic prosperity gained from the rapid growth of the maquiladora industry has been accompanied by increased environmental and human health risks associated with generation of hazardous waste. Diversification of industry has resulted in the predomination of those sectors that likely use hazardous substances. The Mexicali-Calexico border region was selected to demonstrate the potential for environmental and health risks associated with the generation of hazardous waste. Estimates for the generation of hazardous waste were obtained from 34 maquiladora plants in Mexicali, represented by the electronic and electrical equipment and parts, mechanical and transportation equipment, and toys and sporting equipment sectors. Repeated detection of volatile organic compounds in the New River at the US-Mexico border suggests that hazardous waste from the printed circuit board industry in Mexicali is not being disposed of in a proper manner. Potential adverse health effects, such as carcinogenic and mutagenic responses associated with the detected volatiles, are discussed. US and Mexico national legislation and the Binational Environmental Agreement were examined for their adequacy to ensure proper management of hazardous waste generated by the maquiladora industry. Environmental policy options are presented that focus on: (1) increased environmental accountability of US parent companies for their maquiladora assembly plants in Mexico; and (2) more integration between US Customs and border states with the US Environmental Protection Agency to improve the binational management of hazardous waste generated by the maquiladora industry.     

Transport risk modeling for hazardous chemical transport Companies—A case study in China

Traffic accidents of hazardous chemical transport vehicles strongly correlate with the operation and management level of road transport companies. An accurate risk assessment of these transport companies will play a critical role in improving their management and supervision and in turn the overall safety of roadways, property, and most importantly people's lives. Therefore, this study constructs a logistic regression scorecard model to evaluate transport risk of hazardous chemical transport companies and evaluates it using a case study in China. This study first selected 16 indicators from the dimensions of driver behaviors, driving performance, dangerous goods and company business operation to construct company user portraits. Next, a K-means++ algorithm was used to cluster the data samples of the companies on a monthly basis. On this basis, a scorecard was constructed based on a logistic regression scorecard model to realize and visualize the monthly risk portrait of companies. The constructed scorecard predicted transport risk of companies accurately. The results show that the more complex the types of dangerous goods transported, the higher the risk value of the company in the dangerous goods index. Moreover, for transport companies, the driver behaviors and driving performance on their trips are closely related to their business risk. In a practical application, the proposed scorecard can realize the dynamic risk monitoring of transport companies and enable managers and supervision departments to clarify where the risk is from. The transport companies can also carry out safety training and rectification for drivers and operations to reduce the occurrence of hazardous materials-related traffic accidents.