空气质量数值预报优化方法研究

基于源清单“Nudging”修正方法和XGBoost算法对徐州市2016年12月13个监测站点的PM_2．5、PM₁₀、O₃、SO₂、NO₂、CO等6种污染物浓度预报值进行修正,并分析了修正前后模式预报改善效果.在源清单“Nudging”修正部分,本文结合IDW空间插值算法对SO₂、NO₂、CO等3种污染物浓度预报值进行修正,与修正前后模拟结果相比,采用同化源模拟的预报浓度值与观测值的相关系数提高了0.06~0.27不等,平均绝对误差和均方根误差减少的幅度较为明显,平均相对偏差（MFB）和平均相对误差（MFE）均在理想水平范围内,NO₂修正效果最好,其次是SO₂和CO.基于XGBoost算法的统计修正部分,本文结合WRF气象预报要素建立统计回归模型,对6种污染物进行统计修正,经滚动修正之后,预报偏低或偏高现象得到很大的改善,除了SO₂之外,相关系数均提高到0.6~0.7左右,各项误差统计指标改进幅度非常明显.总体而言,本文采用的两种修正方法对中小尺度空气质量数值预报改进效果非常明显,反映了此优化方案的可行性和科学性.     

双基球扁药工艺优化仿真研究

目的优化双基球扁药成球工艺参数,解决由于目前双基球扁药理论研究不充分、控制模型不明确、生产工艺参数调控依靠人工经验所导致的药品成球后直径、弧厚偏差大的问题。方法利用BP神经网络在处理复杂非线性映射问题上的强大的能力,对成球关键工艺参数与成球质量指标进行建模,并应用成球工艺过程仿真数据对其进行训练,将训练得到的BP神经网络模型用于优化成球工艺参数。同时利用仿真数据进行检验模型的可靠性。结果训练后BP神经网络均方误差为0.001,成球直径误差率为1.27%,成球弧厚误差率为2.08%,成球质量参数误差均很小,可以满足工艺要求。结论该BP神经网络模型具有较高精度,适用于含能材料工艺优化,提出的成球工艺优化方法能有效降低成球试制成本,缩短生产周期。     

Phased sampling for soil remediation

In phased sampling, data obtained in one phase is used to design the sampling network for the next phase. GivenN total observations, 1, ...,N phases are possible. Experiments were conducted with one-phase, two-phase, andN-phase design algorithms on surrogate models of sites with contaminated soils. The sampling objective was to identify through interpolation, subunits of the site that required remediation. The cost-effectiveness of alternate methods was compared by using a loss function. More phases are better, but in economic terms, the improvement is marginal. The optimal total number of samples is essentially independent of the number of phases. For two phase designs, 75% of samples in the first phase is near optimal; 20% or less is actually counterproductive.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), partially funded and collaborated in the research described here. It has been subjected to the Agency's peer review and has been approved as an EPA publication. The U.S. Government has a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright covering this article.     

广东省跨市河流边界水质控制断面方案讨论

在对广东省主要跨市河流进行详细调查的基础上，分析现有跨市河流边界水质控制断面的存在问题；综合考虑跨市河段的地理位置、水体现状功能及水环境敏感性等因素，并兼顾上、下游地区社会经济发展现状及趋势，建议在新丰江、增江、韩江、灞江、绥江、西南涌、西江干流、榕江、枫江等河道新设边界水质控制断面13个，在全省共布设38个断面，构成广东省跨市河流边界水质达标管理的监测体系。文章还建议，要尽快制定广东省跨市河流边界水质保护条例，为加强广东跨市河流边界水质的达标管理，解决上下游地区之问的污染纠纷提供法律依据。     

Objectives for Multiple-Species Conservation Planning

Abstract:  The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat. Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities had to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.     

Evaluation of PCDD/F congener distributions in MWI flue gas treated with SCR catalysts

Partitioning of PCDD/F congeners between gaseous and particulate phases and removal efficiencies of the air pollution control devices (APCDs) for PCDD/Fs at an existing municipal waste incinerator (MWI) in Taiwan are evaluated via stack sampling and analysis. The MWI investigated is equipped with electrostatic precipitators (EP), wet scrubbers (WS) and selective catalytic reduction system (SCR) as APCDs. The average PCDD/F concentration of stack gas is 1.49 ng/N m³, and the International Toxic Equivalent Quantity (I-TEQ) is 0.043 ng-I-TEQ/N m³. The EP increases PCDD/F concentration by 174.0% while the average removal efficiency of WS + SCR system for PCDD/Fs reaches 99.1%. In addition, the PCDF removal efficiency achieved with WS + SCR system (97.1–99.8%) is higher than that for PCDDs (96.5–99.3%). The results obtained on gas/particulate partitioning in flue gas indicate that the particulate-phase PCDD/Fs accounted for 65% at the inlet of EP, 20% at the outlet of EP and 50% at the stack, respectively, of the total PCDD/F concentrations. This study also indicates that as the chlorination level of PCDD/F congeners increases, the percentage of PCDD/Fs existing in gas phase decreases in all flue gas samples.     

简化活性污泥数学模型的优化

为了从控制运行的角度促进简化数学模型的应用，必须借助其它优化手段进一步提高预测精度。本文主要介绍了应用于简化数学模型的扩展卡尔曼滤波、神经网络和误差反馈系统三种优化方法以及优化后的验证结果。从验证结果来看，优化的ROM模型与ASMl模型的定性变化行为相似，基于神经网络的复合模型对PO4^3-和NOx^-的预测结果非常准确，误差反馈的优化系统模拟性能良好。     

The SITES reserve selection system: A critical review

Numerous models have been put forth to help with the growing demand for the establishment of biodiversity reserves. One site selection model that has been used in several recent studies is SITES [S.J. Andelman, I. Ball, F.W. Davis and D.M. Stoms, SITES V 1.0: an analytical toolbox for designing ecoregional conservation portfolios, Unpublished manual prepared for the nature conservancy, 1999, 1–43. (available at )]. SITES includes two heuristic solvers: based on Greedy and Simulated Annealing. We discuss the formulation of the SITES model, present a new formulation for that problem, and solve a number of test problems optimally using off-the-shelf software. We compared our optimal results with the SITES Simulated Annealing heuristic and found that SITES frequently returns significantly suboptimal solutions. Our results add further support to the argument, started by Underhill [L.G. Underhill, Optimal and suboptimal reserve selection algorithms, Biol. Conserv. 70 (1994) 85–87], continuing through Rodrigues and Gaston [A.S.L. Rodrigues and K.J. Gaston, Optimization in reserve selection procedures – why not?, Biol. Conserv. 107 (2002) 123–129], for greater integration of optimal methods in the reserve design/selection literature.