THE EFFECTS OF RISK AND RELIABILITY ON OPTIMAL RESERVOIR DESIGN1

A chance-constrained linear programming model, which utilizes multiple linear decision rules and is useful for river basin planning, is used to evaluate the effects of risk and reliability on optimal reservoir design. Streamflow forecasts or predictions can be explicitly included in the linear program. The risk associated with the predictions is included in the model through the use of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of streamflows which are conditioned on the predictions. A multiple-purpose reservoir on the Gunpowder River in Maryland is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. In order to provide the decision makers with complete and useful information, trade-off curves relating minimum reservoir capacity (a surrogate for dam costs), water supply and flood control targets, and the reliability of achieving the targets are developed. The trade-off curves may enhance the decision maker's ability to select the best dam capacity, considering technological and financial constraints as well as the trade-offs between targets, risks, and costs.     

Cost effective environmental control technology for utilities

On September 24, 1998, new regulations announced by the US EPA require 22 eastern states plus the District of Columbia to develop state implementation plans to reduce ground-level ozone through the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (Cooper, 1998). This plan calls for a 28% NOx cut in the summer time (1.2 million tons) by 2007. This calls for utilities to develop new, efficient, and robust post-combustion NOx control technologies. A new environmental control technology called low temperature oxidation (LTO) system, which can reduce NOx emissions below measurable levels (i.e. 2 ppm using process analyzers) at low temperature (125-325 °F), was awarded the best available control technology and the lowest available emission reduction technology by the US EPA in April 1998. Ozone is employed to oxidize nitric oxide (NO) to dinitrogen pentoxide (N₂O₅) at a low temperature in an oxidizer, which is then easily absorbed by water in a scrubber. Bench scale and pilot plant tests have shown that the LTO process can almost completely remove the NOx emissions (i.e. NOx emissions are below levels measurable using process analyzers). This proved that the LTO system is an attractive process to meet the stricter NOx regulations. There are multiple benefits of the LTO system besides removal of NOx emissions, includes reduction of SOx and CO emissions, and no secondary air emissions (NH₃, N₂O). In order to obtain minimum NOx emissions, extra ozone needs to be supplied. The cost of the process also increases nonlinearly as emissions decrease. This poses a challenging multiobjective optimization problem where emissions like NOx and SOx need to be minimized, while minimizing the system cost as well as extra ozone. This problem is addressed using a new and efficient multiobjective optimization framework. This framework will provide designs that are cost effective as well as environmentally friendly.     

区域大气污染总量控制的渐进方法

对污染物实施总量控制是我国当前和今后污染控制和管理的方向。本文对区域大气污染总量控制的一般方法进行了讨论。考虑到污染控制成本和公平性要求 ,采用浓度控制与总量相结合的循序渐进方法 ,并提出了促进环境与经济协调发展的总量控制负荷优化分配模型 ,以期对各地总量控制的实施提供参考和借鉴     

A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTI‐RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi‐reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the parameterization‐simulation‐optimization scheme. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e., hydropower plants). This methodology enables the radical decrease of the number of decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. It is adaptable in a wide range of water resources systems, and its purpose is to support water and power supply companies and related authorities. It already has been applied to two of the most complicated hydrosystems of Greece, the first time as a planning tool and the second time as a management tool.     

边坡稳定性评价的自适应模拟退火聚类分析法

本文针对常规聚类法对初始聚类中心 的敏感性以及聚类结果与样本输入次序有关等问题,提出了基于模拟退火算法的边坡稳定性评价的自适应聚类分析方法。此方法对三峡库区36个边坡的研究结果表明，它是一个具有全局最优解和有较高计算效率的聚类法,其结果明显优于常规聚类法。     

A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16 km² catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicted and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basis during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set with acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to apply a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical optimization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate their performance for periods other than those for which they were determined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to have significant predictive capability. Numerical optimization is an aid for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.     

DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: A CRITIQUE AND A CHALLENGE1

ABSTRACT: Computer-based models together with their interactive interfaces are typically called decision support systems. DSSs are interactive computer-based information providers. The common objective of all DSSs, regardless of the frameworks, methodologies, or techniques used, is to provide timely information that supports human decision makers - at whatever level of decision making. The informational needs of the decision making process are the key considerations that motivate the development of DSSs. The growth of DSS development and use has been substantial. In spite of this impressive growth, computer-aided decision support systems can still be improved and made more useful to those they are intended to support. Researchers and practitioners, and indeed the computer industry, continue to identify ways of doing this. This paper reviews some of these needs and opportunities by focusing on the process of successful DDS development and implementation. The paper outlines an approach and some guidelines for developing DSSs. The approach emphasizes and requires considerable interaction between the DSS developers (analysts) and the DSS users (decision makers). This interaction and feedback is required throughout the entire DSS building, testing and evaluation (debugging), and implementation processes. The paper concludes by identifying some research needs and opportunities affecting DSS development and effective use.     

模糊优选原理在水质综合评价中的应用

本文将模糊优选原理应用到水质综合评价中，并通过与模糊综合评价模型对水质评价的比较，验证了其准确性和优越性。     

Effect of shape of nanoparticle on heat transfer and entropy generation of nanofluid-jet impingement cooling

ABSTRACT

Al₂O₃/water nanofluid has been numerically examined for the first time with different nanoparticle shapes including, cylindrical, blade, brick, platelet and spherical, on the flat and triangular-corrugated impinging surfaces. The volume fractions of 1.0%, 2.0% and 3.0% nanoparticles have been used. The Reynolds number is between 100–500 depending on the slot diameter. The finite volume method is utilized to determine the governing equations. The study is analyzed to determine how the flow features, heat transfer features and entropy production were affected by the diversity of nanoparticle shape, nanoparticle volume fraction, and shape of impinging surface. Darcy friction factor and Nusselt number are studied in detail for different conditions. The temperature contours are presented in the case of different nanoparticle volume fractions, nanoparticle shapes and both impinging surfaces. The results of the study suggest that the nanoparticle shape of the platelet shows the highest heat transfer development due to the thinner thermal boundary layer. Heat transfer augments with increasing volume fraction of nanoparticles. In addition, the study is consistent with the results of the literature on heat transfer and flow properties.     

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A DIMENSIONLESS UNIT HYDROGRAPH1

ABSTRACT: A generalized unit hydrograph method is developed and evaluated for ungaged watersheds. A key component in this method is the value of a dimensionless storage coefficient. Procedures to estimate this coefficient are given using calibrated values from 142 rainfall-runoff events gaged in watershed located mainly in the Eastern US. Only limited success was obtained in predicting this storage coefficient. Thirty-seven, independent rainfall-runoff events were used to test the proposed technique. The generalized unit hydrograph predicted the observed runoff hydrographs fairly well with considerable improvement in accuracy over the SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. Approximately one-half of test storms had percent errors in predicted peak flow rates that were less than 34 percent compared to percent error of 88 percent with the SCS method.