区域碳固持服务供需关系动态分析——以北京为例

陆地生态系统的碳固持服务能直接固定大气中的CO₂,有效减缓全球变暖趋势。该服务的供需平衡对于区域的可持续发展至关重要。目前,以空间显式的方法,定量评估城市尺度上碳固持服务供需关系动态的研究还比较少。因此,论文以北京市为例,分别选取CASA模型计算的植被净初级生产力,以及IPCC清单法和城市碳代谢法计算的人为CO₂排放量,表征碳固持服务的供应和需求量。在此基础上,分析了北京市2000和2013年碳固持服务的供需变化。结果显示,2000年北京市碳固持服务供不应求,供需比为53.5%。空间分布上,中心城区的碳固持服务供需失衡,西部和北部地区的碳固持服务则供大于求。2000-2013年,北京市碳固持服务的供需关系趋于紧张,供需比降至38.5%。碳固持服务供需关系变紧张的主要原因是碳排放总量的增加。其中,来自城市居民生活和交通运输过程的碳排放增长最多。基于此,建议在需求端加快产业转移、促进节能减排,在供应端加大生态环境保护力度、保障区域的可持续发展。     

Driving anger expression in Germany—Validation of the Driving Anger Expression Inventory for German drivers

Objective: The main objective of this article is to examine whether the Driving Anger Expression Inventory (DAX) applies to German drivers because this scale has previously been given to drivers in many different countries.

Methods: We applied German versions of the DAX, the Driving Anger Scale (DAS), and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI) to a sample of 501 German drivers. We computed confirmatory factor analysis and principal axis factoring (PAF) analysis to examine the structure of driving anger expression in Germany. Finally, we related the drivers’ anger exp ression scores to their driving anger experiences and their general anger propensities to assess the validity of the DAX for German drivers.

Results: Results indicated that the DAX’s original factor structure does not apply to German drivers because the confirmatory factor analysis did not show a good model fit. An item analysis revealed that many DAX items had no meaningful variability. They were excluded from further analysis. The subsequent PAF analysis indicated that German drivers do not use personal physical aggression to express their driving anger. Instead, they reported unique preventive anger expression management behavior. In addition, their driving anger expressions were significantly related to their driving anger experiences and their general anger propensities indicated the validity of the refined DAX for German drivers.

Conclusions: We conclude that German drivers do not use strong behaviors to express their driving anger. Many statements of Deffenbacher et al.’s (Behav Res Ther. 40:717–737, 2002) original American questionnaire were not applicable for our sample of German drivers. These findings are in line with several other studies showing discrepancies in driving anger expression in various countries. Future investigations should examine the reasons for discrepancies in driving anger expression.     

Modelling soil carbon development in Swedish coniferous forest soils—An uncertainty analysis of parameters and model estimates using the GLUE method

Boreal forest soils such as those in Sweden contain a large active carbon stock. Hence, a relatively small change in this stock can have a major impact on the Swedish national CO₂ balance. Understanding of the uncertainties in the estimations of soil carbon pools is critical for accurately assessing changes in carbon stocks in the national reports to UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Our objective was to analyse the parameter uncertainties of simulated estimates of the soil organic carbon (SOC) development between 1994 and 2002 in Swedish coniferous forests with the Q model. Both the sensitivity of model parameters and the uncertainties in simulations were assessed. Data of forests with Norway spruce, Scots pine and Lodgepole pine, from the Swedish Forest Soil Inventory (SFSI) were used. Data of 12 Swedish counties were used to calibrate parameter settings; and data from another 11 counties to validate. The “limits of acceptability” within GLUE were set at the 95% confidence interval for the annual, mean measured SOC at county scale. The calibration procedure reduced the parameter uncertainties and reshaped the distributions of the parameters county-specific. The average measured and simulated SOC amounts varied from 60 t C ha⁻¹ in northern to 140 t C ha⁻¹ in the southern Sweden. The calibrated model simulated the soil carbon pool within the limits of acceptability for all calibration counties except for one county during one year. The efficiency of the calibrated model varied strongly; for five out of 12 counties the model estimates agreed well with measurements, for two counties agreement was moderate and for five counties the agreement was poor. The lack of agreement can be explained with the high inter-annual variability of the down-scaled measured SOC estimates and changes in forest areas over time. We conclude that, although we succeed in reducing the uncertainty in the model estimates, calibrating of a regional scale process-oriented model using a national scale dataset is a sensitive balance between introducing and reducing uncertainties. Parameter distributions showed to be scale sensitive and county specific. Further analysis of uncertainties in the methods used for reporting SOC changes to the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol is recommended.     

Comparing Landslide Maps: A Case Study in the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy

/ The preparation of landslide maps is an important step in any landslide hazard assessment. Landslides maps are prepared around the world, but little effort is made to assess their reliability, outline their main characteristics, and pinpoint their limitations. In order to redress this imbalance, the results of a long-term research project in the Upper Tiber River basin in central Italy are used to compare reconnaissance and detailed landslide inventory maps, statistical and geomorphologically based density maps, and landslide hazard maps obtained by multivariate statistical modeling. An attempt is made to discuss advantages and limitations of the available maps, outlining possible applications for decision-makers, land developers, and environmental and civil defence agencies. The Tiber experiment has confirmed that landslides can be cost-effectively mapped by interpreting aerial photographs coupled with field surveys and that errors and uncertainties associated with the inventory can be quantified. The experiment has shown that GIS makes it easy to prepare landslide density maps and facilitates the production of statistically based landslide hazard models. The former supply an overview of the distribution of landslides that is easily comprehended but do not provide insight on the causes of instability. The latter, giving insight into the causes of instability, are diagnostically powerful, but are difficult to prepare and exploit.     

Optimising vegetation monitoring. A case study in A French lowland forest

Biodiversity monitoring surveys are rarely optimised statistically before being initiated. Here, we optimised the monitoring of plants in a temperate forest. The total inventory cost, the number and size of quadrats were optimised to detect a 10% change in species richness over 5 years with α = β = 0.05, using data from ongoing long-term floristic monitoring programs. The procedure showed that the inventory cost would be ca 15% lower using 100-, 200-m² quadrats instead of 300- or 400-m² quadrats. Despite the cost associated with the optimisation (e.g. gathering preliminary data) and the imprecise estimates (due to the typically small sample size of the pilot studies), optimisation would often be a better option than expert opinion when designing a monitoring survey.     

Remote sensing and GIS for wetland inventory, mapping and change analysis

A multiple purpose wetland inventory is being developed and promoted through partnerships and specific analyses at different scales in response to past uncertainties and gaps in inventory coverage. A partnership approach is being promoted through the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands to enable a global inventory database to be compiled from individual projects and analyses using remote sensing and GIS. Individual projects that are currently part of this global effort are described. They include an analysis of the Ramsar sites' database to map the distribution of Ramsar sites across global ecoregions and to identify regions and wetland types that are under-represented in the database. Given the extent of wetland degradation globally, largely due to agricultural activities, specific attention is directed towards the usefulness of Earth Observation in providing information that can be used to more effectively manage wetlands. As an example, a further project using satellite data and GIS to quantify the condition of wetlands along the western coastline of Sri Lanka is described and trends in land use due to changes in agriculture, sedimentation and settlement patterns are outlined. At a regional scale, a project to map and assess, using remote sensing, individual wetlands used for agriculture in eight countries in southern Africa is also described. Land cover and the extent of inundation at each site is being determined from a multi-temporal data set of images as a base for further assessment of land use change. Integrated fully within these analyses is the development of local capacity to plan and undertake such analyses and in particular to relate the outcomes to wetland management and to compile data on the distribution, extent and condition of wetlands globally.     

On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management

Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0759-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Linear alkylbenzenes in riverine runoff of the Pearl River Delta (China) and their application as anthropogenic molecular markers in coastal environments

The average concentrations of ∑LABs (sum of C₁₀-C₁₃-LABs) in runoff samples collected from the eight major riverine outlets of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China ranged from 1.4 to 6124 ng/L in the dissolved phase and from 0.01 to 11.4 μg/g dry weight in the particulate phase during March 2005-February 2006. The annual riverine flux of ∑LABs from the PRD to the coastal ocean was estimated at approximately 14 tons/yr. The inventories of ∑LABs in agricultural lands of Guangdong Province ranged from 313 to 1825 kg/yr. The early and late rice fields were the major sink of LABs, accounting for approximately 68% of total LABs inventory in agricultural lands. The social-economically estimated annual discharge of LABs from household detergents in the PRD was ∼696 tons/yr, more than an order of magnitude higher than that estimated from field measurements (about 14 tons/yr), which was attributed to several factors.     

Cs contamination of the Techa river flood plain near the village of Muslumovo

The results of a radiometric survey of the Techa river flood plain near the village of Muslumovo in the Chelyabinsk region of Russia are presented. The observed territory extended 16.6 km along the riverbed, with a total area of 2.5 km². The collimated scintillation detector technique was applied to in situ field measurements of ¹³⁷Cs deposition on the soil. Maps of ¹³⁷Cs deposition and soil penetration depth were developed on the basis of approximately 5000 measurements. The total ¹³⁷Cs deposition within the surveyed territory has been estimated at 6.6 TBq. The means of the total ¹³⁷Cs soil depositions at half-kilometer sites on the flood plain and its distribution along the river have also been calculated. A maximum ¹³⁷Cs contamination above 7.5 MBq/m² is associated with a bank height up to 1 m above the usual water level. The data identify zones of intensive radionuclide sedimentation and transit zones.