Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline

This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity (“accepted accident activity”) in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated.     

Seasonality of Cs in roe deer from Austria and Germany

Empirical data on the ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in meat of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) roaming in 3 spruce forest areas and one peat bog area are presented and compared. They cover time series of nearly 20 years after a spike contamination in 1986 originating from Chernobyl. A model is presented which considers three soil compartments to describe the change of the availability of ¹³⁷Cs with time.     

Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

The impact on a population from an event resulting in dispersal and deposition of radionuclides in an urban area could be significant, in terms of both the number of people affected and the economic costs of recovery. The use of computer models for assessment of urban contamination situations and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches, approaches for modelling countermeasure effectiveness, and current sources of information on parameters related to countermeasure effectiveness. Countermeasure information must be applied with careful thought as to its applicability for the specific situation being modelled. Much of the current information base comes from the Chernobyl experience and would not be applicable for all types of situations.     

Effect of humic matter on metal adsorption onto clay materials: Testing the linear additive model

Migration of contaminants with low affinity for the aqueous phase is essentially governed by interaction with mobile carriers such as humic colloids. Their impact is, however, not sufficiently described by interaction constants alone since the humic carriers themselves are subject to a solid–liquid distribution that depends on geochemical parameters.In our study, co-adsorption of the REE terbium (as an analogue of trivalent actinides) and humic acid onto three clay materials (illite, montmorillonite, Opalinus clay) was investigated as a function of pH. ¹⁶⁰Tb(III) and ¹³¹I-labelled humic acid were employed as radiotracers, allowing experiments at very low concentrations to mimic probable conditions in the far-field of a nuclear waste repository. Humate complexation of Tb was examined by anion and cation exchange techniques, also considering competitive effects of metals leached from the clay materials.The results revealed that desorption of metals from clay barriers, occurring in consequence of acidification processes, is generally counteracted in the presence of humic matter. For all clay materials under study, adsorption of Tb was found to be enhanced in neutral and acidic systems with humic acid, which is explained by additional adsorption of humic-bound Tb.A commonly used composite approach (linear additive model) was tested for suitability in reconstructing the solid–liquid distribution of Tb in ternary systems (Tb/humic acid/clay) on the basis of data determined for binary subsystems. The model can qualitatively explain the influence of humic acid as a function of pH, but it failed to reproduce our experimental data quantitatively. It appears that the elementary processes (metal adsorption, metal–humate complexation, humic acid adsorption) cannot be considered to be independent of each other. Possible reasons are discussed.     

Spatial patterns and autocorrelation in the response of microarthropods to soil pollutants: The example of oribatid mites in an abandoned mining and smelting area

Although exogenous factors such as pollutants can act on endogenous drivers (e.g. dispersion) of populations and create spatially autocorrelated distributions, most statistical techniques assume independence of error terms. As there are no studies on metal soil pollutants and microarthropods that explicitly analyse this key issue, we completed a field study of the correlation between Oribatida and metal concentrations in litter, organic matter and soil in an attempt to account for spatial patterns of both metals and mites. The 50-m wide study area had homogenous macroscopic features, steep Pb and Cu gradients and high levels of Zn and Cd. Spatial models failed to detect metal–oribatid relationships because the observed latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in oribatid assemblages were independent of the collinear gradients in the concentration of metals. It is therefore hypothesised that other spatially variable factors (e.g. fungi, reduced macrofauna) affect oribatid assemblages, which may be influenced by metals only indirectly.     

Individual sensitivity distribution evaluation from survival data using a mechanistic model: implications for ecotoxicological risk assessment

Two main alternatives are typically used to model mechanistically dose-survival relationship in ecotoxicity tests. Effects are related to a concentration of concern, for instance body concentration, and, to account for their differences relative to time-to-death, individuals have either different concentration thresholds for death (“individual tolerance approach”), or equal probability to die, with death occurring randomly (“stochastic death approach”). A general framework to unify both approaches has recently been proposed. We derived a model from this framework to analyse five datasets (daphnids exposed to selenium, guppies exposed to dieldrin and second, third and fourth instars chironomids exposed to copper), by extending the standard stochastic death approach. We showed the possibility to estimate properly the toxicity parameters together with inter-organisms differences of sensitivity for at least one of these parameters (here the threshold for effect). For the daphnids, there was no improvement of using the extended model, which confirms the expected low variability among genetically identical individuals. For all the other datasets, our model outperformed the standard approach without accounting for differences of sensitivity. We estimated coefficients of variations in the distribution of the logarithm of the threshold from 44% to 4% and showed, for chironomids, a decrease of inter-individual differences of sensitivity with the age of the larvae. All standard threshold estimates were close but above the medium value of the distribution in the new approach, which means that a concentration equal to the standard threshold would ultimately result in the death of more than half of the exposed organisms. A more relevant parameter, such as the concentration protecting 95% of the population, would be 2-4 times inferior to the standard threshold.     

油气资源产业集群竞争力形成机理实证研究

旨在揭示油气产业集群竞争力形成机理,据此展开讨论。首先基于成熟的资源整合观RIBV(Resource and Integration-BasedView)和价值链理论在产业集群层面的拓展,通过融合形成集群资源价值链整合VBCRI(Value chain-Based Cluster ResourceIntegration)思想,表明产业集群资源以产业集群价值链为基本格架实施整合,从而培育产业集群竞争力;然后,从VBCRI出发,基于油气集群资源及其竞争力构成,以及油气集群资源价值链整合能力的分析,构建了油气产业集群竞争力形成机理概念模型,并运用结构方程模型,以我国油气产业为例加以验证。结果表明:基础资源、人力资源、社会关系资源均通过油气集群资源价值链整合(能力)的完全中介作用间接地对油气集群竞争力形成产生正向影响,资本资源则通过油气集群资源价值链整合(能力)的部分中介作用对油气集群竞争力形成产生影响,从而显示了油气集群资源价值链整合(能力)在油气产业集群资源作用于油气产业集群竞争力形成中的充分中介作用,揭示了油气产业集群竞争力形成机理。     

Modelling accidental releases of dangerous gases into the lower troposphere from mobile sources

The article reports the results of different methods of modelling releases and dispersion of dangerous gases or vapours in cases of major accidents from road and rail transportation in urban zones. Transport accidents of dangerous substances are increasingly frequent and can cause serious injuries in densely inhabited areas or pollution of the environment. For quantitative risk assessment and mitigation planning, consequence modelling is necessary.

The modelling of dangerous substance dispersion by standard methods does not fully represent the behaviour of toxic or flammable clouds in obstructed areas such as street canyons. Therefore the predictions from common software packages as ALOHA, EFFECTS, TerEx should be augmented with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or physical modelling in aerodynamic tunnels, and further studies are planned to do this.

The goal of this article is to present the results of the first approach of modelling using these standard methods and to demonstrate the importance of the next development stage in the area of transport accident modelling of releases and dispersions of dangerous substances in urban zones in cases of major accident or terrorist attacks.     

Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic and predictive modelling were performed, using a mass balance approach for three different catchments in the vicinity of three smelters. The catchments differ in their hydrology and geochemistry. The historic modelling results indicate that leaching to groundwater is spatially very heterogeneous due to variation in soil characteristics, in particular soil pH. In the saturated zone, cadmium is becoming strongly retarded due to strong sorption at neutral pH, even though the reactivity of the sandy sediments is low. A comparison between two datasets (from 1990 to 2002) on shallow groundwater and modelled concentrations provided a useful verification on the level of statistics of "homogeneous areas" (areas with comparable land use, soil type and geohydrological situation) instead of comparison at individual locations. While at individual locations observations and the model varies up to two orders of magnitude, for homogeneous areas, medians and ranges of measured concentrations and the model results are similar. A sensitivity analysis on metal input loads, groundwater composition and sediment geochemistry reveals that the best available information scenario based on the median value of input parameters for the model predicts the range in observed concentrations very well. However, the model results are sensitive to the sediment contents of the reactive components (organic matter, clay minerals and iron oxides). Uncertainty in metal input loads and groundwater chemistry are of lesser importance. Predictive modelling reveals a remarkable difference in geochemical and hydrological controls on subsurface metal transport at catchment-scale. Whether the surface water load will peak within a few decades or continue to increase until after 2050 depends on the dominant land use functions in the areas, their hydrology and geochemical build-up.