An ecosystem model for estimating potential shellfish culture production in sheltered coastal waters

A generic ecosystem model has been developed for estimating the potential production of shellfish culture and the effect of that cultivation on the pelagic ecosystem in sheltered coastal waters. The model describes the dynamics of a simple food web, nutrient cycling and growth of shellfish. The design of the model is closely tied to the temporal and spatial scales that are important in determining the sustainable production level for a particular embayment. The pelagic ecosystem, mussel energetics, population dynamics and hydrodynamics are coupled to allow fully dynamic predictions of the effect of the shellfish density. When applied to Beatrix Bay, an intensive culture embayment in the Pelorus Sound of New Zealand, the model successfully captured main features of the observed system behaviour. The hydrodynamic regime of the bay controls mussel growth and production. Although high fluxes of water into the bay suppress nutrient and carbon cycling signals in the system, the model simulations demonstrated that the mussel cultivation can have considerable effects on the ecosystem of the bay including food depletion and nutrient cycling. One of the most obvious effects is nutrient enhancement through mussel excretion at low cultivation densities, which promotes primary production particularly during the N-limitation period in summer. The sensitivity analysis identified uncertainty in some parameters and indicated areas for which experimental studies could lead to model improvement. The modelling exercise has established a primary predictive tool for managing mussel aquaculture of a coastal embayment to estimate relationships between the stock level and the growth rate of mussels, and the potentially achievable harvest and stocking density.     

Continuous versus binary representations of landscape heterogeneity in spatially-explicit models of mobile populations

How a landscape is represented is an important structural assumption in spatially-explicit simulation models. Simple models tend to specify just habitat and non-habitat (binary), while more complex models may use multiple levels or a continuum of habitat quality (continuous). How these different representations influence model projections is unclear. To assess the influence of landscape representation on population models, I developed a general, individual-based model with local dispersal and examined population persistence across binary and continuous landscapes varying in the amount and fragmentation of habitat. In binary and continuous landscapes habitat and non-habitat were assigned a unique mean suitability. In continuous landscapes, suitability of each individual site was then drawn from a normal distribution with fixed variance. Populations went extinct less often and abundances were higher in continuous landscapes. Production in habitat and non-habitat was higher in continuous landscapes, because the range of habitat suitability sampled by randomly dispersing individuals was higher than the overall mean habitat suitability. Increasing mortality, dispersal distance, and spatial heterogeneity all increased the discrepancy between continuous and binary landscapes. The effect of spatial structure on the probability of extinction was greater in binary landscapes. These results show that, under certain circumstances, model projections are influenced by how variation in suitability within a landscape is represented. Care should be taken to assess how a given species actually perceives the landscape when conducting population viability analyses or empirical validation of theory.     

紫色土小流域土壤及氮磷流失特征研究

紫色土区土壤及其养分流失对长江水环境产生严重威胁。然而,有关该地区自然降雨侵蚀下土壤及氮磷流失规律的研究却较为少见。以紫色土农田利用为主小流域为研究对象,监测自然降雨侵蚀下土壤及其氮磷的流失过程,以期服务于流域尺度土壤及养分流失的模拟与控制。结果表明,次降雨径流含沙量与流量的变化基本同步,峰值含沙量往往出现在峰值流量处或略有提前,此后,含沙量迅速降低。硝态氮流失浓度与流量的变化成反比,峰值流量处流失浓度一般达到最低,此后,随着流量的降低,其流失浓度存在较为明显的升高过程。铵态氮与水溶性磷的流失表现为剧烈波动的变化特征。氮素流失的主要形态是硝态氮,其占到次降雨无机氮流失总量的88%～97%。     

Determination of Heat Loss from the Feet and Insulation of the Footwear

This study compared the methods of determining footwear insulation on human participants and a thermal foot model. Another purpose was to find the minimal number of measurement points on the human foot that is needed for insulation calculation. A bare foot was tested at 3 ambient temperatures on 6 participants. Three types of footwear were tested on 2 participants. The mean insulation for a bare foot obtained on the participant and model were similar. The insulation of warm footwear measured by the 2 methods was also similar. For thin footwear the insulation values from the participants were higher than those from the thermal model. The differences could be related to undefined physiological factors. Two points on the foot can be enough to measure the insulation of footwear on human participants (r = .98). However, due to the big individual differences of humans, and good repeatability and simplicity of thermal foot method, the latter should be preferred for testing.     

温拌阻燃沥青混合料阻燃效果评价

通过氧指数、质量损失率及路用性能试验,研究EC130温拌剂、FRMAX型阻燃剂对沥青混合料阻燃效果的影响。试验结果显示,相比普通沥青混合料,阻燃沥青混合料、温拌阻燃沥青混合料氧指数分别增加23.3%、25.6%,质量损失率减小28.0%、32.0%,残留动稳定度增加14.0%、16.1%,残留最大弯拉应变增加14.1%、17.1%,冻融劈裂强度比增加5.3%、9.0%。相比普通沥青路面,阻燃沥青路面、温拌阻燃沥青路面发生火灾时能够减少34.0%、41.1%的毒害气体生成,并减少路面修补所需的混合料质量。其次得出普通沥青路面、阻燃沥青路面及温拌阻燃沥青路面的质量损失率、残留动稳定度、残留最大弯拉应变、残留冻融劈裂强度比与燃烧时间的关系模型。结果表明:阻燃剂对沥青混合料的阻燃效果显著;温拌剂有助于阻燃剂更好地发挥阻燃作用,降低火灾对道路的破坏,降低隧道火灾发生时有害气体的生成,提升隧道安全性。     

Increasing land pressure in East Africa: The changing role of cassava and consequences for sustainability of farming systems

Increasing land pressure during the past three to four decades has transformed farming systems in the mid-altitude zone of East Africa. Traditional millet-, cotton-, sugarcane- and/or banana-based farming systems with an important fallow and/or grazing component have evolved into continuously cultivated cassava or cassava/maize-based systems. Within three to four decades, cassava cultivation increased from 1–11 to 16–55% of cropped fields in our six study sites. Declining soil fertility, and not labour or food shortage, was apparently the primary trigger for this transformation. The land use changes have increased nutrient offtakes and reduced nutrient recycling rates. Cassava and maize now account for 50–90% of nutrient removal. Whereas single-season fallows were the most important source of nutrient recycling on cropped fields in the past, currently cassava litterfall and maize stover contribute roughly 70% of nutrient recycling, with 50–70% of N, P and K recycled in cassava litterfall. This may explain why many farmers reason that cassava ‘rests’ the soil. With increasing land use pressure farmers progressively use cassava as an ‘imitation fallow’ throughout their farm. Farmers increasingly target cassava to poor fertility fields characterized by low pH and available P. High cassava intensities are nonetheless maintained on more fertile fields, probably to guarantee regeneration of soil fertility on all fields. Once cassava is targeted to poor fertility soils, farmers have run out of low-input management options and need to intensify management to maintain system productivity. As cassava is now used by more farmers and on a larger acreage than fallowing in the studied farming systems, cassava cropping could perhaps serve as an excellent entry point to strengthen system sustainability.     

Sediment and nutrient dynamics during snowmelt runoff generation in a southern Taiga catchment of Russia

The water quality of the Volga catchment, Russia, is diminished and major nutrients reach critical levels. Proper management strategies depend on process knowledge about nutrient sources and pathways as well as appropriate models. For the 18.8 km² experimental catchment Lubazhinkha, 100 km south of Moscow, a monitoring scheme was conducted to identify runoff generation and nutrient source areas. The grey forest soils of the catchment are utilized with arable land and pasture (54%) and forest areas. The received results show a high intra-annual and inter-annual dynamic of the snowmelt runoff generation as major hydrological process. Overall sediment export rates during the 3 years of snowmelt investigation from 2003 to 2005 are low with a maximum of 0.33 t ha⁻¹ during snowmelt period 2005 and effectively reduced by a dam at the catchment outlet. Also, the total phosphorus loss from the catchment is low reaching from 0.03 to 0.35 kg ha⁻¹ during the snowmelt periods. However, sediment and total phosphorus concentrations vary within one snowmelt event and can reach high concentrations. Detailed analysis of element concentrations during snowmelt events allows an identification of different flow components and runoff generating mechanisms. During low flow situations phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon are transferred from the arable soils with slow flow components to the channel. In contrast to this situation, the sources of sediment and nutrients split up temporarily and spatially during high flow situations. Aside arable fields that are source of sediment and phosphorus during snowmelt episodes, the forested areas were detected as major source for the export of dissolved organic carbon with surface runoff. In particular these areas are characterized by a late thawing of the topsoil which causes a delayed peak of dissolved organic carbon concentration. The awareness of the dynamic and complex catchment reaction during snowmelt events is of importance for the development of proper management strategies.     

西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

虎林湿地变化造成农业损失的估算

自50年代初至2001年,50年来虎林市境内以平原沼泽型为主的湿地面积损失了三分之二,引起灾害性气候增加,造成了一定程度的农业损失,文章通过公式计算得出了农业损失值。     

基于土壤流失的农业面源TN和TP排海系数估算

以黄河三角洲为典型研究区,通过分析区域地表污染物流失风险与入海通量的关系,构建了海岸带农业总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）面源污染排海估算模型.在此基础上,计算了包含水田、水浇地和旱地等耕地类的TN和TP面源污染排海系数,验证表明输出系数估算结果较好.研究区耕地的TN和TP排海系数分别为18.33 kg·（hm²·a）^-1和1.02 kg·（hm²·a）^-1,在夏季面源污染负荷较高.子流域尺度较大的耕地类农业面源污染负荷主要位于支脉河、广利河和小岛河管控区域.TN和TP总负荷较大的行政区主要位于北部黄河口镇和永安镇;较大的单位面积负荷在西南部.因此,需要关注农业面源污染的时间效应,同时协调社会经济发展,从子流域和行政单元的角度制定综合性面源污染防控策略,陆海统筹治理海域污染.