铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型

针对目前铁路抗灾减灾的实际需要 ,阐述了铁路灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 ,论证了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失是铁路灾害间接经济损失的主要部分 ,并提出了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失的评估模型     

Using persuasive messages to encourage voluntary hearing protection among coal miners

INTRODUCTION: This longitudinal field study was designed to encourage Appalachian coal miners in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to engage in hearing-protection behaviors. METHOD: Participants were mailed postcards that featured either a positive, negative, or neutral message on the outside of the postcard and a message encouraging hearing protection behaviors on the inside. The first posttest measurement of the effectiveness of the persuasive messages was conducted about a week after the postcards were mailed. The delayed posttest measurement was conducted six weeks later. RESULTS: Responses from 307 coal miners revealed that the positive or neutral messages generated significantly more self-reported hearing protection behaviors than the negative message. Identical results were obtained in a delayed posttest assessment of miners' self-reported hearing protection behaviors. The positive message was also more effective than either the neutral or negative message in preventing defensive mechanisms from emerging over time. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Positive and neutral messages were convincingly more successful than negative messages in facilitating self-reported hearing protection behaviors among coal miners. Similarly, the positive messages kept defensive processes at bay.     

进近着陆运输飞行事故原因及预防对策研究

进近着陆是最容易发生重大运输飞行事故的阶段,笔者对1980—1996年发生的民航运输飞行进近着陆事故进行了统计分析。结果表明:事故的主要原因是人为因素和环境因素,事故结果主要为飞机失去控制和可控飞行撞地的结果,飞机撞地后起火往往造成机组人员和乘客大量伤亡;加强研究民航飞行安全中的人为因素控制,改善进近着陆的环境系统,重视机场应急计划的编制和应急救援的模拟演练等措施,对降低进近着陆阶段的飞行事故次数、改善航空运输安全和减少人员伤亡具有重要意义。     

安全生产事故人员伤残间接损失统计研究

针对安全生产事故的人员伤残损失统计,除直接经济损失外,还包括因死亡和伤残而导致的间接经济损失。为了计算我国安全生产事故导致的人员伤残损失,DALY(伤残调整寿命年)是目前国际疾病负担应用较多的统计指标,其将因伤残导致的健康寿命损失和死亡寿命损失综合计算。笔者首次应用DALY来计算2005年我国工矿商贸企业伤亡事故导致的伤残寿命损失,2005年因事故伤亡导致的健康寿命损失至少有3 651 862人年,折合成静态经济损失约878亿元。通过DALY计算健康寿命损失可以从一个全新的角度发现事故造成的间接损失,在调查处理安全生产事故时,除了直接损失外,还应该重视安全生产事故带来的间接损失。     

EMI有源滤波器与阻抗失配问题的分析

EMI滤波器的阻抗失配往往使得滤波器不仅起不到应有的作用，反而加剧了干扰分量的强度，为了弄清有源滤波器的结构类型与阻抗匹配之间的关系，本文从滤波器的主要性能参数插入损耗的基本定义入手。推导了不同结构有源滤波器的插入损耗与阻抗、滤波器增益关系的表达式。由此得出滤波器结构类型与阻抗失配情况的合理搭配．经过实验验证该结论对选用和设计EMI有源滤波器有直接的指导意义。     

环境污染经济损失估算模型的构建及其应用

基于污染物的环境污染损失机理性模型,Logistic方程及环境价值的相关理论,建立了环境污染经济损失估算模型.该模型不仅能反映出污染物浓度、污染物排放量、环境资源价值与经济价值损失间的关系,而且利用该模型可以定量地反映环境污染对环境资源价值造成的损害.将该模型用于估算福州市工业水污染造成的经济损失,其估算量与利用经济计量法计算出的结果进行比较发现:二者评价结果较为一致,但前者略大.      

近10年来长江下游地区耕地动态变化特征

基于遥感资料和GIS分析,对1988～1998年长江下游地区耕地与其他土地利用类型之间相互转变数量特征,以及耕地变化强度、耕地流失强度的区域分异特征进行了分析和描述,对耕地变化导致的环境效应进行了初步探讨。研究结果表明:①1988～1998年,耕地与林地、灌丛、水体之间的转变,对其数量动态变化起着主要作用,在上述转变过程中,耕地总体表现出数量明显减少、质量降低的趋势;②农田向城镇的单向转移,体现了区域快速城市化对耕地的侵占过程,从空间分布看,该过程主要体现于上海、苏锡常地区、南京、杭州等城市化过程最为剧烈的地区;③长江下游地区1988～1998年耕地年均流失率为0.77%,流失的主体部分是位于长江三角洲和巢湖平原自然条件优越、水利灌溉配套设施完善的传统优质耕地,新形成的部分则主要来自于滩涂湿地开垦及低山丘陵地区毁林开荒。总体而言,长江下游地区耕地流失体现在数量锐减、质量下降两个方面,并伴随着一系列生态破坏问题的出现。     

澄江尖山河小流域不同土地利用类型地表径流氮、磷的流失特征

根据径流小区观测, 对澄江尖山河小流域不同土地利用类型地表径流中氮、磷的流失特征进行了研究. 结果表明:灌草丛和次生林都有较好的调节径流和减少土壤流失的作用,在相同的降水量下,坡耕地总产流量分别是人工林、次生林、灌草丛的1.58,12.45和5.52倍;而从产沙量来看,坡耕地的产沙量也远大于其余几种土地利用类型,坡耕地的总产沙量分别是人工林、次生林和灌草丛的8.41,53.06和41.90倍. 不同土地利用类型径流中的总氮、总磷的输出量差异显著,总氮、总磷输出趋势都表现为坡耕地＞人工林＞灌草丛＞次生林;不同土地利用类型径流小区侵蚀泥沙中的总氮、总磷输出量同样为坡耕地＞人工林＞灌草丛＞次生林,且坡耕地的输出量远大于其余几种土地利用类型. 相关分析表明,径流中带走的总氮量大于泥沙,磷的输出主要是以泥沙结合态为主,泥沙是磷的主要载体.      

Nutrient-limited toxin production and the dynamics of two phytoplankton in culture media: A mathematical model

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple mathematical model consisting of four variables, viz., nutrient concentration, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP), non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), and toxin concentration. Limitation in the concentration of the extracellular nutrient has been incorporated as an environmental stress condition for the plankton population, and the liberation of toxic chemicals has been described by a monotonic function of extracellular nutrient. The model is analyzed and simulated to reproduce the experimental findings of Graneli and Johansson [Graneli, E., Johansson, N., 2003. Increase in the production of allelopathic Prymnesium parvum cells grown under N- or P-deficient conditions. Harmful Algae 2, 135–145]. The robustness of the numerical experiments are tested by a formal parameter sensitivity analysis. As the first theoretical model consistent with the experiment of Graneli and Johansson (2003), our results demonstrate that, when nutrient-deficient conditions are favorable for the TPP population to release toxic chemicals, the TPP species control the bloom of other phytoplankton species which are non-toxic. Consistent with the observations made by Graneli and Johansson (2003), our model overcomes the limitation of not incorporating the effect of nutrient-limited toxic production in several other models developed on plankton dynamics.     

Habitat Use and Life History as Predictors of Bird Responses to Habitat Change

Abstract:  In theory the consideration of life-history characteristics should provide a way of making predictive generalizations about the responses of different species to environmental modification. Nevertheless, few studies have tested the validity of this assumption or attempted to apply it across large numbers of related species. We explored both quantitative and qualitative contrasts between species of waterbirds that have either expanded or contracted their ranges in southern Africa over the past 40 years to test the hypothesis that expansionists and contractionists, respectively, should share life-history characteristics and/or ecological attributes. Similarities and differences in life history and ecology were explored through multivariate statistics. Overall, life-history traits provided an inadequate explanation of whether species would be range expansionists or contractionists. By contrast, ecological attributes of species that related to habitat use correlated well with range changes. In particular, waterbird species that inhabit pans seemed to be preadapted to using human-made dams and impoundments. The ability of many species to use artificial wetlands has aided their westward range expansions into arid regions of southern Africa. By contrast, species that rely on vegetated wetlands and that require reeds for nesting were predisposed to range contraction because their habitats have been severely affected by agricultural development and urbanization. In direct contrast to range expansions, most range contractions were west to east, the eastward contraction reflected the high level of wetland loss and degradation in the eastern lowlands of South Africa. Based on analysis of ecological attributes of regional contractionists, several additional species were identified as of potential conservation concern, although such concern may not as yet have been expressed.