Energy Futures: Five Dilemmas of the Practice of Anticipatory Governance

Public participation has become standard practice in both environmental communication and science and technology studies, with such engagement increasingly moving “upstream” to the early stages of technological development. One framework for these activities is anticipatory governance, in which foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on—and direct—the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the “NanoFutures” project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars.     

基于隐性危险驾驶人感知特性及判别模型研究*

为研究驾驶人在隐性危险场景中危险感知行为,基于Bayes判别法,将驾驶行为指标作为输入变量,建立驾驶人危险感知能力预测模型。结果表明:驾驶员在显性危险场景的纵向加速度显著低于隐性危险场景;驾驶人在隐性危险场景中TTC值小于显性危险场景;在被试车辆与轿车、行人、非机动车冲突3种交通冲突场景中,驾驶人对行人危险感知能力最弱。研究结果对提高道路交通安全水平以及驾驶人应急避险能力具有一定实际指导意义。     

机场火灾旅客安全态度、风险感知与非适应性疏散行为的关系研究*

为减少旅客非适应性疏散行为,提高机场火灾疏散效率,基于态度-行为过程模型,剖析机场火灾旅客安全态度对非适应性疏散行为的作用机理。构建包含安全态度(安全认知、安全情感、安全行为倾向)、风险感知（概率感知、控制感知、损失感知）和非适应性疏散行为的理论模型,并依据507份有效数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:安全情感对非适应性疏散行为有直接显著的负向作用,安全认知和安全行为倾向通过风险感知的中介作用对非适应性疏散行为产生负向影响,且安全情感对非适应性疏散行为的总效应最大。     

Data mining approach to model bus crash severity in Australia

Introduction: Buses are different vehicles in terms of dimensions, maneuverability, and driver's vision. Although bus traveling is a safe mode to travel, the number of annual bus crashes cannot be neglected. Moreover, limited studies have been conducted on the bus involved in fatal crashes. Therefore, identification of the contributing factors in the bus involved fatal crashes can reduce the risk of fatality. Method: Data set of bus involved crashes in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2019. Clustering of crash data was accomplished by dividing them into homogeneous categories, and by implementing association rules discovery on the clusters, the factors affecting fatality in bus involved crashes were extracted. Results: Clustering results show bus crashes with all vehicles except motor vehicles and weekend crashes have a high rate of fatality. According to the association rule discovery findings, the factors that increase the risk of bus crashes with non-motor vehicles are: old bus driver, collision with pedestrians at signalized intersections, and the presence of vulnerable road users. Likewise, factors that increase the risk of fatality in bus involved crashes on weekends are: darkness of roads in high-speed zones, pedestrian presence at highways, bus crashes with passenger car by a female bus driver, and the occurrence of multi-vehicle crashes in high-speed zones. Practical Applications: The study provides a sequential pattern of factors, named rules that lead to fatality in bus involved crashes. By eliminating or improving one or all of the factors involved in rules, fatal bus crashes may be prevented. The recommendations to reduce fatality in bus crashes are: observing safe distances with the buses, using road safety campaigns to reduce pedestrians’ distracted behavior, improving the lighting conditions, implementing speed bumps and rumble strips in high-speed zones, installing pedestrian detection systems on buses and setting special bus lanes in crowded areas.     

公众参与在铁路工程项目设计过程中的实证研究——以成渝客运专线为例

公众参与是铁路工程项目规划、设计和建设的重要组成部分,也将是铁路设计过程中不可或缺的环节和机制。本文研究了铁路工程项目中公众参与的背景、目的、原则和方式,并以成渝客运专线为实例进行分析,对铁路工程项目中公众参与的前景做出了展望。成渝客运专线贯彻综合最优化的设计理念,对公众参与工作高度重视,针对目前国内公众参与工程建设项目的现状,积极开展了公众参与的有益尝试,并采纳合理可行的公众意见,多次优化工程设计及强化降噪措施,取得了良好的效果,将对今后我国铁路建设项目的公众参与工作产生积极的影响。     

Local people's perceptions of participating in conservation in a heritage site: A case study of the Wuyishan Scenery District cultural and natural heritage site in Southeastern China

The perceptions and attitudes of local people in heritage sites strongly influence their behaviour related to protecting heritage resources and improving management. In this study, we collected pertinent data through a questionnaire and group discussions to examine local people's attitudes and perceptions toward participation in heritage protection in Wuyishan Scenery District (WSD). Logistic regression was used to identify the factors that influence local people's perceptions of heritage protection behaviours. The results indicate that education level is the most critical factor in local people's initiatives to protect heritage resources. Local people with higher education levels pay more attention to the status of WSD and behave more positively with regard to conservation. Gender and income are relatively important factors in perceptions of heritage. Males have better knowledge of heritage resources than females do, and inhabitants with higher income levels are more likely to participate in protection, especially after WSD was listed as a World Heritage Site. Education level was always a key demographic factor before and after WSD's listing on the Heritage List. Household size was a significant factor before WSD was listed on the Heritage List, but it was not significant after, when household income became a significant factor.     

Evolving Water Management Institutions in the Red River Basin

Institutions are the rules and norms that guide societal behavior. As societies evolve—with more diverse economies, increased populations and incomes, and more water scarcity—new and more complex water management institutions need to be developed. This evolution of water management institutions may also be observed across different constituencies, with different societal needs, in the same time period. The Red River of the North basin is particularly well suited for research on water management issues. A key feature of water management in the Red River Basin is the presence of three completely different sets of water law. Minnesota’s water law is based upon riparian rights. North Dakota’s water law is based upon prior appropriation. Manitoba has a system of water allocation that features provincial control. Because the basin is fairly homogeneous in terms of land use and geographic features, its institutional diversity makes this an excellent case study for the analysis of local water institutions. This article reviews the local water management institutions in the Red River Basin and assesses the ongoing institutional evolution of local water management.     

Economics of "essential use exemptions" for metered-dose inhalers under the Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has led to rapid reductions in the use of ozone-depleting substances worldwide. However, the Protocol provides for "essential use exemptions" (EUEs) if there are no "technically and economically feasible" alternatives. An application that might qualify as an "essential use" is CFC-powered medical metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and the US and other nations have applied for exemptions in this case. One concern is that exemptions are necessary to ensure access to medications for low-income uninsureds. We examine the consequences of granting or withholding such exemptions, and conclude that government policies and private-sector programs are available that make it economically feasible to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in this application, thereby furthering the global public health objectives of the Montreal Protocol without compromising the treatment of patients who currently receive medication by means of MDIs.     

Dealing with uncertainty in the assessment of human exposure to radioactivity in food and the environment

This paper presents an overview of the approach used to assess radiation dose and risk to members of the public from radioactivity in food and the environment. It describes uncertainties in the process and suggests ways of dealing with them to improve the risk assessment process. It also explains how uncertainty in the assessed dose/risk can be communicated to non-expert audiences such as members of the public. The issues covered in this paper apply to risk assessment of any contaminant and not only radioactivity.