Estimation of probabilities and likely consequences of a chain of accidents (domino effect) in Manali Industrial Complex

Chains of accidents (the domino effect) have been occurring with ever increasing frequency in chemical process industries. This is reflected in several accidents ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’; the world's worst industrial accident of the 1990s — the Vishakhpatnam disaster — also involved the domino effect ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361; and Process Safety Prog 18 (1999b) 135’. Such chains of accidents have a greater propensity to cause damage than stand-alone accidents ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; and J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’.In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the domino effect and its damage potential, use of deterministic models in conjunction with probabilistic analysis is required. Recently we have proposed a systematic methodology called ‘domino effect analysis’ (DEA). A computer-automated tool, DOMIFFECT, has also been developed by us based on DEA ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; Environment Model Software 13 (1998b) 163; and Risk assessment in chemical process industries: advanced techniques. Discovery Publishing House (1998c)’.This paper illustrates the application of DEA and DOMIFFECT to an industrial complex comprising 16 different industries. Out of 12 credible accident scenarios envisaged in three different industries — namely Madras Refineries Limited (MRL), UB Petrochemicals (UBP) and Indian Organic Chemicals Limited (IOCL), eight scenarios are likely to cause the domino effect. A further detailed analysis reveals that accidents in the storage of liquified petroleum gas and propylene and in the reflux drum units of MRL may cause domino effects. Similarly, propylene storage of UBP and monoethylene glycol storage of IOCL are also likely to cause domino effects. The impact of various chains of accidents has been forecast which reveals that in several cases the accidents may be catastrophic, harming the entire industrial complex of 16 industries. The study leads to the identification of ‘hot spots’ — units that pose the greatest risk — in turn forewarning the industries concerned and enabling them to prioritize and augment accident-prevention steps.     

环境风险评价方法刍议

本文简要介绍了环境风险评价的概念、主要内容，指出了目前环境风险评价方法的技术关键，提供了风险度(PR)和风险影响(R1）的计算方法。并对我国环境风险评价方法的研究提出了建议。     

Occurrence, distribution and risk assessment of antibiotics at various aquaculture stages in typical aquaculture areas surrounding the Yellow Sea

The pollution of antibiotics commonly existed throughout the entire aquaculture process,but the residues of antibiotics at different aquaculture stages have rarely been studied. This study investigated the occurrence, distribution and risk assessment of antibiotics at different aquaculture stages (the non-aquaculture stage, the early aquaculture stage, the middle aquaculture stage, and the late aquaculture stage) in two typical marine aquaculture areas (Mahegang River and Dingzi Bay) surrounding the YellowSea. Fluoroquinolones and tetracyclineswere commonly used antibiotics in the aquaculture of these areaswith high detection frequencies (17% to 83%). Compared among four aquaculture stages, the highest concentration of antibiotics (9032.08 ng/L) in aquaculture ponds was detected at the late aquaculture stage. And the antibiotic pollution level of natural water was directly related to the aquaculture stages. Similarly, at the aquaculture stages, the detection frequency of antibiotics in sediments was higher than that at the non-aquaculture stage. Based on the correlation analysis, the concentration of main antibiotics in water showed a positive correlation with total nitrogen (p<0.05) and chlorophyll a (p<0.01), while it showed a negative correlation with salinity (p<0.01) in coastal water of the Dingzi Bay. According to the risk assessment,with the development of aquaculture stages, the selection pressure of fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines on resistant bacteria had increased. And the ecological risks caused by sulfonamides and tetracyclines to aquatic organisms had also increased markedly. Overall, this study may provide a reference for formulating regulatory policies regarding antibiotic use at different aquaculture stages.     

Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features,driver age and risk sensitivity

Objective: The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity.

Methods: Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18–70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors.

Results: Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk impact changes; however, the effect was larger for urban environments. There were also effects of object type, with certain objects rated as consistently more safety relevant. In urban scenes, changes involving pedestrians were rated significantly more hazardous than all other objects, and in rural scenes, changes involving animals were rated as significantly more hazardous. Notably, hazard ratings were found to be higher in urban compared with rural driving environments, even when changes were matched between environments.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that drivers perceive rural roads as less risky than urban roads, even when similar scenarios occur in both environments. Age did not affect hazard ratings. Instead, the findings suggest that the assessment of risk posed by hazards is influenced more by individual differences in risk sensitivity. This highlights the need for driver education to account for appraisal of hazards’ risk and relevance, in addition to hazard detection, when considering factors that promote road safety.     

Farmers’ risk preference and the adoption of risk management strategies in Northern Ghana

The study used the hypothetical lottery-choice questions to measure risk aversion and a detailed survey collected data on input use, farm production and non-farm activities to specifically assess whether risk aversion, risk perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affect the risk management strategies of farm households in Northern Ghana. Risk aversion significantly increases crop diversification strategies of households but marginally reduces herbicide use by households. Market risk significantly increases the use of improved seed varieties and the application of inorganic fertiliser but reduces diversification into livestock production. Production risk largely increases diversification into livestock production. Farmers’ risk management strategies are affected by socioeconomic variables such as access to extension services, area cultivated, age and gender. Policy effort focused on building pliable on-farm crop related risk management strategies should aim at considering the risk aversion and the perception of market risk whilst those focused on livestock should focus on production risk.     

构建海洋石油开采溢油危机防控体系之我见

随着海洋石油勘探开发的迅速发展,海上溢油事故屡有发生。针对我国现行管理体制设计上的弊端,提出了在构建海洋石油勘探开发溢油危机防控管理体系的实践中,必须着力健全完善溢油事故宏观防控、溢油问题科技保障、溢油风险预测评估、溢油危机应急处置4个方面工作机制的对策。     

地下水脆弱性评价和污染风险管理

地下水脆弱性评价和风险评估是地下水污染防治的有用工具和工作步骤,是地下水资源管理和地下水污染修复的重要依据。文章对地下水脆弱性评价和污染风险评价的研究背景和进展进行了简要综述,提出了目前地下水脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题,并对今后基于风险管理的地下污染环境修复及其总体思路进行了展望。     

再生水回灌地下水风险管理建议

随着经济发展、城市化速度的加快,缺水问题日益严重。再生水人工地下回灌作为水资源回用的一种新方式,已成为解决区域水资源短缺的一种有效措施。通过对再生水回灌地下水风险分析和对国内外再生水回灌地下水应用与管理现状进行梳理,为我国的再生水回灌地下水风险管理提出对策和建议。     

Shellfish aquaculture and First Nations' sovereignty: The quest for sustainable development in contested sea space

Aquaculture tenures or leases have become an increasingly important management tool for regulating access rights to coastal and offshore marine habitat. Tenure, as a form of private property rights to marine space, is generally considered a prerequisite for aquaculture development, as are the associated exclusive access rights which provide necessary incentives for producers to invest in infrastructure. The shellfish industry in British Columbia (BC), Canada, is presented as a case study of a transition from a primarily common property wild fishery to a rights‐based system for aquaculture. In BC, seafood production has grown substantially during the past two decades as a result of aquaculture production. However, despite the inherent economic advantages of the tenuring system for increasing seafood production, rights to aquaculture sites in BC remain highly controversial, particularly in response to environmental concerns and infringements on Aboriginal territorial claims. Shellfish farming has, to‐date, been far less controversial than salmon farming; however, shellfish aquaculture has not been uniformly adopted across the province, and analyses of industry capacity or economic opportunities for coastal communities have failed to adequately explain development patterns. This paper, which identifies perceptions of the risks and benefits of the shellfish aquaculture tenuring system, presents the results of 56 interviews conducted with individuals involved in shellfish production in BC. Results indicate that heightened perceptions of risk about shellfish aquaculture tenuring are related to unresolved Aboriginal territorial claims, economic dependence on wild shellfish resources, as well as place‐based values favouring access to wild resources. Underlying values and cultural understandings also strongly shape public perceptions of the risks of aquaculture, and as such, influence local decisions to either accept or resist industry growth. In this case, interviewees' risk perceptions were found to be more important indicators of the potential for industry expansion than studies of capacity or economic cost‐benefit analyses.     

Species Listing under Canada's Species at Risk Act

Abstract: In a preliminary analysis of listing decisions under Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA), Mooers et al. (2007) demonstrated an apparent bias against marine and northern species. As a follow‐up, we expanded the set of potential explanatory variables, including information on jurisdictional and administrative elements of the listing process, and considered an additional 16 species recommended for listing by SARA's scientific advisory committee as of 15 August 2006. Logistic model selection based on Akaike differences suggested that species were less likely to be listed if they were harvested or had commercial or subsistence harvesting as an explicitly identified threat; had Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) as a responsible authority (RA); were located in Canada's north generally, and especially in Nunavut; or were found mostly or entirely within Canada. Subsequent model validation with an independent set of 50 species for which a listing decision was handed down in December 2007 showed an overall misclassification rate of <0.10, indicating reasonable predictive power. In light of these results, we recommend that RAs under SARA adopt a two‐track listing approach to address problems of delays arising from extended consultations and the inconsistent use by the RAs of socioeconomic analysis; consider revising SARA so that socioeconomic analysis occurs during decisions about protecting species and their habitats rather than at the listing stage; and maintain an integrated database with information on species’ biology, threats, and agency actions to enable future evaluation of SARA's impact.