泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测法

泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测旨在确定一次泥石流可能堆积泛滥的最大范围.通过泥石流不同冲出量、堆积区坡度和容重的31次模型实验,获取了泥石流堆积面积.最大堆积长度、宽度和厚度的实验数据.采用量纲分析方法,建立了一次泥石流危险范围的预测模型,并由实验资料确定了模型的修正系数.在云南和甘肃的应用实践表明,预测模型精度高,适用范围广,可在我国泥石流危险范围预测预报中使用.     

Threshold estimation from the linear dose-response model: Method and radiation data

The linear dose-response model is considered a conservative, nonthreshold relationship. This is based on a confusion between the sufficient condition (that is, zero slope at zero dose) and the necessary condition (that is, response distinguishable from zero). Once the threshold is properly defined, it is shown that the linear model predicts thresholds for radiation data in good agreement with experimental results.     

Rockfall Hazard and Risk Assessment Along a Transportation Corridor in the Nera Valley,Central Italy

Rockfalls are a common type of fast-moving slope failures, and in many countries they represent the primary cause of landslide fatalities. We present a methodology to ascertain rockfall hazard and to determine the associated risk along transportation networks. The proposed methodology is based on the combined analysis of the recurrence of rockfall events, determined from historical information, the frequency-volume statistics of rockfalls, obtained from inventories of recent rockfall triggering events, and the results of a physically based, spatially distributed rockfall simulation model used to determine rockfall hazard. The available information on rockfall hazard is combined in a Geographic Information System with a map of the transportation network to identify the road sections potentially subject to rockfalls. Information on the location and type of rockfall defensive measures, including revetment nets, elastic fences, concrete walls, and artificial tunnels, is used to estimate the efficacy of the defensive structures and to determine the level of the residual rockfall risk along the roads. To illustrate the methodology, we discuss an application in a 48-km² area in the Nera River valley, in the Umbria Region of central Italy, where rockfalls are abundant, and where considerable investments were recently made to mitigate rockfall risk. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

GIS在巨灾保险风险管理中的应用研究

近年来 ,巨灾的不断发生 ,使得许多保险和再保险公司遭受巨大赔偿 ,乃至可能造成破产。究其原因 ,除了人们对巨灾自身难以抗拒这一客观原因外 ,保险企业对巨灾保险的风险管理方法、技术和手段的不适也是一个很重要的因素。为此 ,笔者分析了利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理的优越性 ,并就GIS在巨灾保险的信息管理、风险累积预测和风险管理专家系统中所起的作用和发挥的功能分别进行了探讨。利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理 ,不仅可以了解巨灾的发生和变化规律 ,进行危险性区域和费率区域的划分 ,而且可以优化保险和再保险方案 ,并通过专家系统设计出符合实用灾情的风险管理及保险管理的对策 ,对保险公司的巨灾保险风险管理起到了重要的指导作用。     

运用风险管理理念,提高灭火救援水平

根据消防部队灭火救援工作中的职业危险 ,引入了风险管理理念。笔者运用安全系统工程的理论和方法 ,建立了灭火救援工作的风险管理方法以及风险识别、风险评价的方法和步骤 ,并针对当前的情况 ,提出风险控制的具体措施。该方法简单 ,易于操作。在安全管理工作中应用风险管理方法 ,根据现有资料和知识经验 ,针对部门的具体情况 ,找出灭火救援工作中存在的风险 ,并对各种风险及其危险程度进行评价 ,在此基础上 ,采取相应的控制措施。分析和研究表明 ,运用风险管理有利于控制或减少消防人员在灭火救援中存在的风险 ,防范事故发生 ,提高灭火救援的水平。     

保险对企业安全监督管理之作用

通过开展适合于保险与安全监管工作的风险评估体系的研究 ,充分发挥保险在安全监管工作中的作用 ,从而为降低职工、企业乃至全社会的风险水平 ,为经济的可持续发展和社会稳定提供必要的保证条件。     

Risk-mitigating beliefs,risk estimates,and self-reported speeding in a sample of Australian drivers

PROBLEM: Research suggests that people who engage in risk-taking behaviors often hold specific beliefs that can mitigate or reduce their perceptions of risk associated with those behaviors. METHOD: A scale was developed (Speeding Risk Belief Scale (SRBS)) to assess beliefs about speeding-related risk and predict self-reported speeding in a random-digit telephone survey of 800 South Australian drivers between the ages of 16 and 50. RESULTS: The scale was internally consistent, and path analyses showed it to be associated with self-reported speeding, both directly and indirectly through participants' estimates of speeding-related risk. DISCUSSION: Origins of risk-mitigating beliefs and the extent to which they may be causally linked with speeding are discussed, and recommendations are made for future research. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This research has strong implications for the conduct of countermeasure campaigns that disseminate information on speeding-related risk.     

Case studies of occupational falls from heights: cognition and behavior in context

PROBLEM: The aim of this study was to examine individual workers' cognitive, behavioral, and motivational processes leading up to occupational falls from heights. METHOD: The study is based on 26 semistructured personal interviews and on-site investigations with male workers who reported to an emergency department for treatment of injuries due to falls from heights. RESULTS: A greater number of workers carrying out nonroutine compared to routine tasks perceived, identified, interpreted, and attempted to control a fall hazard. Two cases are presented illustrating how cognition and behavior in context progresses from a lesser to a greater active role in the incident processes. SUMMARY AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The addition of full-scale investigations of how and why workers thought and behaved the way they did in a particular situation can give important clues as to whether preventive measures will be effective in a similar situation in the future.     

液化石油气罐区危险性的定量评价

液化石油气罐区的主要危险是贮罐区发生火灾、爆炸事故。运用数学模型对液化石油气贮罐的危险性进行定量化评价，估算其爆炸事故的严重程度、波及范围、影响程度等     

危险评价中的数据环境

本文通过分析危险评价的数据来源、数据的准确程度和危险评价模型，论述了数据环境与危险评价的关系，指出了数据的不确切必然会影响到危险评价质量，但应用数据进行危险评价是完全必要的。关键是如何提高数据的精确程度和模型的真实程度，使评价结果更趋准确、可靠。