The rise of risk and the decline of politics

This paper argues that the rise of risk and formal risk assessment has contributed to the demise of representative democratic politics by displacing public discourses about values with technical justifications for decision making. Furthermore, risk plays a central role in the displacement of governmental responsibility to private sector and NGO actors at the same time as facilitating government control over citizens—the Janus faces¹ of governance and governmentality. Arguing that the turn to public participation cannot be the panacea for the present situation, the paper concludes by calling for revitalisation of representative institutions, the development of real-time technology assessment and development of popular connoisseurship of science and technology.     

Application of land-use data and screening tests for evaluating pesticide runoff toxicity in surface waters

Survey information on pesticide usage in New Zealand during 1985–1989 is summarized by regions and principal applications. Two screening tests, one based on a simple water-balance method and the other based on a semiempirical runoff formula, have been used to identify 18 pesticides with application rates that may yield runoff concentrations that are harmful to aquatic fauna. These are predominantly associated either with intensive applications in horticulture or extensive applications to cereal crops and pasture. The purpose of the screening tests was to calculate typical edge-of-field concentrations in runoff and, by comparing them with known aquatic toxicity values, determine which compounds are applied at rates that may yield toxic runoff. While it may be possible to extend these methods to calculate typical surface water concentrations, further studies will be needed to evaluate pesticide persistence and assimilation in stream channels.     

Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species

Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (∼43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.     

The relationship between perceived risk of being ticketed and self-reported seat belt use

PROBLEM: Twenty-nine percent of Americans failed to use their seat belts in 2000. Efforts to improve safety belt usage can be enhanced by identifying specific factors that motivate belt use. METHOD: Motorist survey data were used to examine the effect of Perceived Risk of being Ticketed (PRT) for a seat belt infraction on self-reported seat belt use. RESULTS: Analyses indicated that individuals and groups of individuals who have higher PRT typically report higher belt usage. Factorial analyses indicated that this perceived risk to belt use relationship holds both within groups with generally high (e.g., upper income) and generally low (e.g. young men) overall self-reported belt use. DISCUSSION: Applications of PRT to improve seat belt use are discussed. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Enforcement of existing laws, perhaps through selective traffic enforcement programs, and strengthening laws to create a higher perception of being ticketed by motorists should increase safety belt use thereby saving lives and reducing cost for individuals, government, and industry.     

Factorial structure of recklessness: to what extent are older drivers different?

PROBLEM: This study tests whether the original factorial structure of a recklessness questionnaire can be maintained for the current Spanish population of older drivers. JUSTIFICATION: Our recent interest in dedicating special attention to senior citizen mobility (Monterde, 2001), is due to the impending increase of the aging population in Western countries; this has led us to reinitiate the psychometric study of the construct validity, revising and including older drivers in the psychometric aspects of those evaluation instruments that will then be used in the Spanish psycho-medical check of drivers and in research. METHODS: Factorial analysis was used to determine validity. RESULTS: There was an appearance of a different psychological pattern in elderly drivers, specifically, a psychological anxiety trait related to the task of driving. Furthermore, interesting data were found about the attitude of this sector toward the "traffic society" and toward some of the measures included in Spanish legislation that affect especially older drivers (such as the psycho-medical check). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY, RESEARCH AND PRACTICE: These results suggest the possible existence of some kind of "compensation phenomenon," which could have influence over the scores obtained and their interpretation. Consequently, the evaluation instruments should be tested and, if necessary, adapted or specifically created for use with this age group.     

Application of the rescue number to the evaluation of remediation technologies for contaminated ground

An improved rescue number, RN_SOIL, which is an indicator for evaluating remediation technologies for contaminated ground that is based on both the risk and the remediation cost, is proposed as a tool of risk communication. The risk posed by contaminated ground is indicated by the figure of treatment priority at time t, FTP(t), which represents the human health risk as the number of people affected by the contaminated ground at time t during the remediation process. The calculation of the value of FTP(t) is based on exposure to contaminants that have migrated through environmental media from the contaminated ground, and is estimated by using a CalTOX model and the Monte Carlo method. The integration of FTP(t) with time, which represents the cumulative number of people affected by the contaminated ground, is used to estimate the performance of individual remediation technologies in risk reduction. The figure of unprocessibility for waste (FUW), which represents difficulties in remediation, is expressed as the remediation cost. FUW is estimated by using actual costs per unit volume of remediated soil. As an overall performance value, the rescue number for each remediation technology for contaminated ground (RN_SOIL) is calculated by multiplication of the integral FTP(t) by FUW. Smaller values of RN_SOIL are judged to indicate a better technology. The rescue index (RI), calculated as the ratio of the reduction of the integral FTP(t) to FUW, indicates the cost-effectiveness of the remediation technologies. Successful estimation of the indices (FTP(t), integral FTP(t), FUW, RN_SOIL and RI) demonstrate the usefulness of these indices in risk communication.Part of this paper was presented at 13th meeting of Japan Society of Waste Management Experts (2002)     

Is risk associated with drinking water in Australia of significant concern to justify mandatory regulation?

Presently in Australia there are no mandatory drinking water standards. Here we argue that the risk associated with drinking water in Australia is of a dimension discernible to warrant mandatory regulations. The catchments that supply the major metropolitan areas of Sydney and Adelaide, and the groundwater for the city of Perth have been seriously compromised by the encroachment of development and activities. Melbourne in the past has generally relied on a closed catchment reservoir system; however, population growth in the near future will sequester the full online operation of additional reservoirs, which have multiple land use catchments. In addition to the current landscape circumstances, the management of a water system in itself proposes significant issues of risk. Two critical assumptions that are unique to a mass medium substance like water and dramatically alter the appraisal of risk are: (1) very large numbers of people are potentially exposed, and (2) small changes in contaminant levels may have adverse population outcomes. It is also known that water reticulation systems frequently suffer from contamination problems caused solely by the distribution system, and optimal management of these facilities would best be served by statutory protected transparency and dedicated water quality programs. In 1979, an Australian parliamentary committee stated that an “uncontaminated water supply is” a “basic requirement for the obtainment of good health”; however, recent surveys of Australian water systems show many are not meeting basic water quality criteria, and many communities are not receiving regular monitoring or testing as required by government authorized Australian drinking water guidelines. Exacerbating this situation is the lack of reporting and statutory endorsed standardized procedures to ensure information is properly and promptly recorded and that data are centralized for maximum benefit. The evaluation of risk associated with drinking water in Australia is often hampered by inadequate or incomplete data. Lastly, regional and rural water supplies face a vast array of contemporary problems and experiences that include widespread usage of pesticides and agricultural chemicals. In recent years, the Darling River has experienced the worst algal bloom known to man, and this river system not only supplies a number of regional and rural towns with water, but eventually connects with the River Murray, which supplies the State of South Australia with approximately 50% of its water requirements.     

Public Meetings About Local Waste Management Problems: Comparing Participants to Nonparticipants

One of the more traditional ways to involve citizens in environmental management in the United States is to hold a public meeting. Yet public meetings are also frequently criticized for stereotypical weaknesses, including a concern that citizens who attend public meetings do not accurately represent citizens who do not attend. To examine this concern in the context of local waste management problems, this study investigates whether citizens who attend public meetings differ from citizens who do not attend meetings. In the spring of 1998, residents in two New York communities facing local waste management problems received mailed questionnaires. Those surveyed included citizens who had previously attended state-sponsored public meetings about the waste sites and citizens who lived within one mile of the respective waste sites but had not attended any meetings. A comparison of demographic characteristics showed that, in both communities, citizens who attended meetings tended to report higher incomes and have children living at home. In one community, previous meeting participants tended to perceive greater risks from the waste site. In both communities, participants were less likely to consider certain sources of information about the waste sites, including the state environmental agency, state health agency, and the industries, as credible. Regardless of whether they had previously attended public meetings, respondents who perceived the risks as greater also perceived the sources as less credible. The conclusions suggest some potential challenges to effective communication at public meetings, including overcoming widespread skepticism and heightened concern among audience members.     

Safety climate, attitudes and risk perception in Norsk Hydro

The aims of this paper are to test mental images of risk and to present some results of a survey of safety climate, employee attitudes, risk perception and behaviour among employees within the industrial company Norsk Hydro. Two mental images were tested. They are both based on the assumption that it is possible to make a distinction between cognitive and affective processes involved in risk perception. The first model was the ‘rationalistic’ approach, which assumes that the affective component of risk perception is influenced by cognitive judgements. The justification for the second model is found in Zajonc's [Zajonc, R.B., 1980. Feeling and thinking. Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist 35 (2), 151–175] conclusion that emotions are precognitive. In this model, entitled the ‘mental imagery’ approach, emotion is seen as the driving force affecting cognition of risk and safety. Employees at 13 plants have answered a self-completion questionnaire. The plants belonged to the agricultural, aluminium, magnesium and petrochemical divisions within Norsk Hydro. A total of 731 respondents replied to the questionnaire. The mental imagery approach was somewhat better fitted to the data than a rationalistic approach. Safety climate and employee attitudes towards safety and accident prevention contributed significantly to the variance in employee occupational risk behaviour. Worry and the extent to which the employee felt safe/unsafe was the most important predictor for the cognitive judgement of risk. Acceptability of rule violations seemed to be the most important predictor of behaviour, probably because acceptability also affected how often the respondents took chances and broke safety rules.