On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.     

Risk assessment of an oil depot using the improved multi-sensor fusion approach based on the cloud model and the belief Jensen-Shannon divergence

At present, enterprises have introduced the Internet of Things (IoT) technology to monitor and evaluate the safety status of oil depots, allowing for the collection of a substantial amount of multi-source monitoring data from factories. However, sensor monitoring data is often inaccurate and fuzzy. To improve the reliability of risk prevention and control based on multi-source sensor data, this study proposed a CM-BJS-DS model based on the cloud model (CM), the Belief Jensen-Shannon (BJS) divergence and Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence theory. First, the relevant evaluation factors of the accident and their threshold intervals of different risk levels were determined, and the fuzzy cloud membership functions (FCMFs) corresponding to different risk levels were constructed. Then, the sensor monitoring data were processed using the correlation measurement of the FCMF, and basic probability assignments (BPAs) were generated under the risk assessment frame of discernment. Finally, the BPAs were pre-processed by the improved evidence fusion model and the accident risk level was evaluated. Based on the monitoring data, a case study was performed to assess the risk level of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accidents due to liquid petroleum gas (LPG) tank leaks. The results show that the proposed method presents the following characteristics: (i) The BPAs were constructed based on the monitoring data, which reduced the subjectivity of the construction process; (ii) Compared with single sensors, the multiple sensor fusion evaluation yielded more specific results; (iii) When dealing with highly conflicting evidence, the evaluation results of the proposed method exhibited a higher belief degree. This method can be used as a decision-making tool to detect potential risks and identify critical risk spots to improve the specificity and efficiency of emergency response.     

某地区铁路职工ASCVD总体发病危险评估调查分析

评估某地区铁路职工ASCVD总体发病危险,为健康干预提供依据。按照《中国成人血脂异常防治指南(2016年修订版)》分析该地区2 910名铁路职工ASCVD总体发病危险、ASCVD危险因素及降LDL-C/非-HDL-C达标率。结果表明,铁路职工中ASCVD极高危、高危、10年高危、10年中危、10年低危和余生危险人数比例分别为1.48%、9.48%、5.36%、11.75%、68.76%和2.16%;危险因素中前三位为超重和肥胖、吸烟、血脂异常;降LDL-C/非-HDL-C达标情况极高危人群、高危人群、10年高危人群均低于30%。说明该地区铁路职工ASCVD发病危险高,中青年人群余生危险应引起重视;ASCVD危险因素多,高危人群降LDL-C/非-HDL-C达标率低;应采取积极措施,根据ASCVD发病危险分层进行不同强度健康干预。     

长江中下游河道整治工程施工期溢油风险防范措施研究

文中主要针对长江中下游河道整治工程施工期可能会发生的溢油事故,利用费伊公式进行油膜扩散的预测,提出溢油风险防范措施。建议在施工范围内的饮用水取水口在施工期预先设置围油栏,将溢油事故对取水口的影响降低至最低程度。     

CO2SINK—From site characterisation and risk assessment to monitoring and verification: One year of operational experience with the field laboratory for CO2 storage at Ketzin, Germany

The CO₂SINK pilot project at Ketzin is aimed at a better understanding of geological CO₂ storage operation in a saline aquifer. The reservoir consists of fluvial deposits with average permeability ranging between 50 and 100 mDarcy. The main focus of CO₂SINK is developing and testing of monitoring and verification technologies. All wells, one for injection and two for observation, are equipped with smart casings (sensors behind casing, facing the rocks) containing a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) and electrodes for Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT). The in-hole Gas Membrane Sensors (GMS) observed the arrival of tracers and CO₂ with high temporal resolution. Geophysical monitoring includes Moving Source Profiling (MSP), Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP), crosshole, star and 4-D seismic experiments. Numerical models are benchmarked via the monitoring results indicating a sufficient match between observation and prediction, at least for the arrival of CO₂ at the first observation well. Downhole samples of brine showed changes in the fluid composition and biocenosis. First monitoring results indicate anisotropic flow of CO₂ coinciding with the “on-time” arrival of CO₂ at observation well one (Ktzi 200) and the later arrival at observation well two (Ktzi 202). A risk assessment was performed prior to the start of injection. After one year of operations about 18,000 t of CO₂ were injected safely.     

Levels and speciation of arsenic in the atmosphere in Beijing, China

Arsenic levels and speciation in the total suspended particles (TSPs) were quantitatively determined by high performance liquid chromatography on-line coupled with hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectrometry in Beijing, China from February 2009 to March 2011. The high TSP levels fluctuated between 0.07 and 0.79 mg m⁻³, with a mean level of 0.32 ± 0.17 mg m⁻³. The total arsenic concentrations ranged from 0.03 to 0.31 μg m⁻³ (mean: 0.13 ± 0.06 μg m⁻³) in Beijing‘s air. The concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged from 0.73 to 20 ng m⁻³ (mean: 4.7 ± 3.6 ng m⁻³) and from 14 to 2.5 × 10² ng m⁻³ (mean: 67 ± 35 ng m⁻³), respectively. As levels and speciation demonstrated relative higher levels in spring and autumn and lower values in summer and winter. As(V) accounted for 81-99% of the extractable species in the TSP samples which showed that As(V) was the major fraction of the extractable As. Organoarsenic species, monomethylarsonate (MMA) and dimethylarsinate (DMA) were not found in all samples. Higher values of enrichment factors demonstrated that arsenic in TSP mainly come from anthropogenic sources. High As and its species levels in air and respiratory exposure (0.30-0.84 μg d⁻¹) attributed to higher excess cancer risk ((4.2 ± 2.0) × 10⁻⁴) for people in Beijing.     

利用AQUATOX模型评价淀山湖二氯甲烷生态风险

淀山湖地处上海的饮用水源地,水体中有机污染物的生态风险逐渐引起人们的重视。淀山湖水质监测结果显示,淀山湖中的挥发性有机物以二氯甲烷为主。应用美国环境保护署的AQUATOX模型对淀山湖水体中二氯甲烷进行模拟,并进行生态风险评价,旨在构建基于AQUATOX模型的水环境中有机物浓度模拟方法及风险评价的研究体系。结果显示,淀山湖中的二氯甲烷尚处于安全范围,但是需要加强观测,避免高风险的发生。     

Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition

Between 1985 and 1995, fertility in Eastern Europe declined from 2.2 children per woman to merely 1.5 on region-average. Previous research has emphasized mainly the economic turmoil during transition or the influx of new ideas regarding fertility and family relations. This article suggests that applying a risk management perspective on fertility patterns may put additional light on the reasons behind the fertility decline in post-communist Europe. The complexity of modern social systems has made people increasingly dependent on the state for risk evaluation and risk management. The article formulates the hypothesis that transition itself disrupted the mental models that helped people to navigate among the risks associated to having and raising children. Left to their own devices, women in Eastern Europe became more inclined to postpone childbirth or discard this option altogether.     

Coping with Complexity,Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Risk Governance: A Synthesis

The term governance describes the multitude of actors and processes that lead to collectively binding decisions. The term risk governance translates the core principles of governance to the context of risk-related policy making. We aim to delineate some basic lessons from the insights of the other articles in this special issue for our understanding of risk governance. Risk governance provides a conceptual as well as normative basis for how to cope with uncertain, complex and/or ambiguous risks. We propose to synthesize the breadth of the articles in this special issue by suggesting some changes to the risk governance framework proposed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) and adding some insights to its analytical and normative implications.