Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation

To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378). We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and, among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural worldviews on decision-making.     

Integrating high resolution soil data into federal crop insurance policy: Implications for policy and conservation

Well-designed and executed policies are critical for aligning sustainability incentives and enabling future agricultural productivity growth. In the U.S., government-administered crop insurance is the primary direct mechanism through which agriculture is subsidized and represents over $100 billion in liabilities annually. Despite the importance of soil properties in determining crop yield formation and risk, the Government does not consider any soil information in generating premium rates under the Federal Crop Insurance Program. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of integrating high-resolution soil data into modeling of field-level insurance rates in large-scale applications. Here, using the actual distribution of soil quality across crop fields in a high production region, models are developed to incorporate soil data into insurance rates and then evaluated to investigate the magnitude of risk differentials across different soil qualities. These soil-conditioned results were then compared to rates that would have been generated by the Government’s current soil-naïve methodology. This study indicates that the degree to which soils vary within a county is highly significant, leading to rating errors of 200% or greater. Implications of ignoring soil information and operational considerations of modifying this cornerstone program are discussed.     

A new approach to quantitative assessment of reliability of passive systems

The objective of this paper is to show how probabilistic reliability can be assessed for complex systems in the absence of statistical data on their operating experience, based on performance evaluation of the dominant underlying physical processes. The approach is to distinguish between functional and performance probabilities when dealing with the quantification of the overall probability of a system to perform a given function in a given period of time (reliability). In the case of systems where sufficient statistical operating experience data are available, one can focus the quantitative evaluation entirely on the assessment of the functional probability for a given active item (e.g. a pump) by assuming that the specification, layout, construction and installation is such that the item is providing the assigned performance, e.g. in the form of generating the required flow rate. This is how traditional probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) focus the reliability analysis for the various safety features on the calculation of values for the availability per demand. In contrast, for various systems relevant in advanced technical applications, such as passive safety features in innovative reactor designs, it is essential to evaluate both functional and performance probabilities explicitly and combine the two probabilities later on. This is of course due to the strong reliance of passive safety systems on inherent physical principles. In practice, this means that, for example, in case of a passive cooling system based on natural circulation of a given medium, one has to evaluate and to assess the probability to have a medium condition and a flow rate such that a cladding temperature, represented by a probability distribution, can be hold at a required level. A practical example of this method is given for the case of the reliability assessment of a residual passive heat removal system. General conclusions are drawn regarding reliability estimation of complex, interconnected systems in the absence of statistical performance data, such as for infrastructures.     

Application of risk based inspection in refinery and processing piping

In refineries and processing plants, the enormous amount of piping is more complex in distribution than other types of equipment. In general, compared with other types of equipment in these industries, more difficulty in inspection planning is encountered.

However, under-inspection or over-inspection can occur due to the lack of jurisdictional requirements on the inspection interval and method for piping, or the inspection interval being based only on piping service classifications in the existing regulations, such as API 570. This can result in unacceptable risks, along with costly loss of resources.

To lessen the piping risk level, more and more companies have adopted and applied risk based inspection (RBI) methodology, leading to risk reduction and cost benefits since the last decade. This study applied RBI methodology to optimize the inspection strategy of the piping in a refinery and petrochemical plants in Taiwan. Two actual case studies were corroborated better with quantitative RBI methodology than without the methodology in terms of risk and cost reductions.     

工伤保险风险分类及风险分类表研究

以风险理论为基础,笔者对工伤保险费率确定中风险分类的作用、分类的原则,风险分类表的定义、组成及其制定规则进行了研究,并将风险分类表分为3类,即行业风险分类表、行为风险分类表和混合风险分类表,目前许多发达国家多采用第三种类型。对建立风险分类表的相关因素进行了分析,在此基础上对我国工伤保险分类表的建立与完善提出一些建议。例如,针对制定风险分类表的规则;风险类目要不断修正;我国工伤保险分类表比较粗略,缺乏一定的科学依据,不符合风险分类的促进事故预防和损失控制的基本原则,提出最好能考虑使用“混合风险分类表”,对企业中特殊岗位采用一个或多个分类号。     

核电站重要敏感性设备分析

核电站重要敏感性设备管理是国内首次采用归纳法和演绎法对核电站重要敏感系统和设备进行识别和设备分级的一种新方法。目标是为了找到导致反应堆紧急停堆、强迫停机和非计划跳机跳堆风险的主要部件 ,并采用 80 - 2 0的原理进行有效的管理 ,建立有效的风险管理 (预防、探测、改正行动 PDC ,Prevention/Detec tion/Correction)大纲和PDC管理数据库 ,并对大部分的重要敏感设备的子部件进行的FMEA(FailureModeandEffectAnalysis)分析 ,识别其失效机理 ,从而确定重要敏感设备清单和预防跳机跳堆的改正行动 ,减少未来由于设备失效导致的跳堆次数 ,达到提高核电站的设备可靠性、安全性和经济性的目的。     

A challenge to the assumed generalizability of prediction and countermeasure for risky driving: different factors predict different risky driving behaviors

In road safety, it may be debated whether all risky behaviors are sufficiently similar to be explained by similar factors. The often assumed generalizability of the factors that influence risky driving behaviors has been inadequately tested. Study 1 (N=116) examined the role of demographic, personality and attitudinal factors in the prediction of a range of risky driving behaviors, for young drivers. Results illustrated that different driving behaviors were predicted by different factors (e.g., speeding was predicted by authority--rebellion, while drink driving was predicted by sensation seeking and optimism bias). Study 2 (N=127) examined the generalizability of these results to the general driving population. Study 1 results did not generalize. Predictive factors remained behavior-specific, but different predictor-behavior relationships were observed in the community sample. Overall, results suggest that future research and practice should focus on a multi-factor framework for specific risky driving behaviors, rather than assuming generalizability across behaviors and driving populations.     

The perceived compatibility of safety and production expectations in hazardous occupations

INTRODUCTION: Safety hazards are unavoidable in many work environments. Employees must be both productive and safe, however, conflicting safety and production demands can negatively affect safety, production, or both. The employee's perception of the compatibility of management's safety and production expectations is a possible predictor of such consequences. This paper defines "safety-production compatibility" and describes how measures of safety-production compatibility, as well as safety pressure and production pressure, were developed. METHOD: We used LISREL structural equation modeling to test the influences of safety-production compatibility, safety pressure, and production pressure on safe work behavior and interference with performing other work tasks. The 239 study participants were workers employed in diverse but hazardous occupations. RESULTS: Pressure to work safely was positively associated with safe work behavior. The perceived compatibility of safety and production demands positively influenced safe work behavior and reduced the interference of safety hazards performing other tasks. Safety-production compatibility was also found to mediate the relationship between trust in management and safe work behavior. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this field study suggest increased compatibility, and thus less conflict, between safety and production demands influences safe work behavior and the interference of safety hazards with performing other work tasks. More broadly, the worker's reaction to multiple work demands is a safety and performance influence. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Safety management efforts that focus only on the hazards fail to eliminate many accidents because accidents arise from many factors including technology, safety climate, social influences, production, and safety demands. This study suggests that workers differ in their perception of the compatibility of safety and production demands. These differences will show up in safe work behavior, influencing the effectiveness of safety management efforts and the trust workers have in management's concern for safety.     

事故树法在煤气发生炉环境风险评价中的应用

针对煤气发生炉事故特点,采用事故树分析法对其进行环境风险评价,从最小割集、最小径集以及结构重要性3个方面解释煤气发生炉事故的主要原因,根据基本事件的重要性,比较分析事故的预防重点,并提出相应防控措施和应急预案。事故树法能够全面描述事故发生的原因及其逻辑关系。     

重金属污染场地风险评估与治理技术体系研究

在对发达国家污染场地风险评估与治理修复技术方法进行分析的基础上,针对我国重金属污染场地的实际特点,通过调查、分析、实践、优化等方式,对风险评估与治理修复技术开展了系统研究,对风险评估技术在我国的实际应用以及治理修复技术体系的构建提出了模型优化、技术路线优化等相关建议,提出了以浸出浓度为基础依据初步构建重金属污染场地理修复技术体系,并针对治理修复技术的国内产业化分析了技术标准、技术开发应用、市场引导、政府监管等关键影响因素。