Managing climate change risks in New York City’s water system: assessment and adaptation planning

Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.     

洪水风险分析及近期防洪策略

目前我国主要江河流域大都只能防御常遇洪水,近10a内这种状况不会有大的改观。因此,我国近期防洪的重点是尽量减少主要江河流域中下游精华地区在出现超标准洪水时的损失。实现这一目标的有效途径,是在洪水风险分析的基础上,制定并实施防御超标准洪水的预案。而减少伤亡最有效的方法是控制山洪高风险区的开发和建立预警报系统。     

RIVER-QUALITY ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: In 1972, the U.S. Geological Survey began a pilot program of river-quality assessments. The objectives of the program are (1) to define the character, interrelationships, and apparent causes of existing river-quality problems, and (2) to devise and demonstrate the analytical approaches and the tools and methodologies needed for developing water-quality information that will provide a sound technical basis for planners and managers to use in assessing river-quality problems and evaluating management alternatives. The most noteworthy finding of a pilot assessment of the Willamette River basin, Oregon, was that across-the-board advanced waste treatment was not the answer to the problem of meeting stringent water-quality standards established for the river. The assessment also found that existing water-quality data generally are inadequate for defining the critical cause-effect relationships that control river-quality problems and that intensive, synoptic surveys keyed to local problems and conditions would be required in most river basins to develop an adequate information base for managing important river-quality problems. The study illustrated that rigid nationwide standards and regulations are likely to result in unneeded expenditures in some river basins and in undesirable quality in others.     

Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.     

Development of algorithms for predicting ignition probabilities and explosion frequencies

A project was performed for the Explosion Research Cooperative to develop algorithms for predicting the frequencies of explosions based on a variety of design, operating and environmental conditions. Algorithms were developed for estimating unit-based explosion frequencies, such as those reported in API Recommended Practice 752, but in more detail and covering a much broader range of chemical process types. The project also developed methods for predicting scenario-based explosion frequencies, using frequencies of initiating events and conditional probabilities of immediate ignition and delayed ignition resulting in explosion. The algorithms were based on a combination of published data and expert opinion.     

Causes and consequences of thermal runaway incidents—Will they ever be avoided?

A study of runaway incidents involving thermal chemical reactions in the UK over the past 25 years (1988–2013) has been carried out. The objective of this study is to determine possible causes of thermal runaway incidents. A statistical analysis of the underlying problems that led to thermal runaway incidents has been provided. A comparison of the current study on thermal runaway incidents with those identified prior to 1988 has been carried out. This study clearly shows that lessons have not been learnt from thermal runaway incidents caused by operator errors, management failures and lack of organised operating procedures. These factors have been the possible causes of about 77% of all the thermal runaway incidents analysed in this study. The number of fatalities and injuries as a result of thermal runaway incidents has increased by ∼325% and ∼279%, respectively, in the last 25 years even though the number of incidents was significantly less. On the basis of this analysis, several recommendations have been proposed that could help to minimise the risks associated with any thermal runaway incidents in the future.     

Review: Risk Compensation Literature — The Theory and Evidence

Risk compensation denotes offsetting behavioral responses to safety improvements. Theoretical arguments suggest that, when drivers are required to drive safer cars or drive in a safer manner, they will tend to increase their driving speed or drive in some other risky manner.

The purpose of this paper is to review critically the theory and evidence on risk compensation. Our general conclusion is that the application of risk compensation theory, especially to some types of regulations, is questionable, and the empirical support for significant offsetting behavior is weak. Specifically—(1) the role of limitations in processing information is not appreciated, especially regarding risk perceptions and the learning component associated with new regulations; (2) the types of regulations and types of driving behavior are not adequately distinguished; and (3) the empirical studies haves mixed results and are subject to important limitations.     

Modelling effects of chemical exposure on birds wintering in agricultural landscapes: The western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) as a case study

We describe an ecotoxicological model that simulates the sublethal and lethal effects of chronic, low-level, chemical exposure on birds wintering in agricultural landscapes. Previous models estimating the impact on wildlife of chemicals used in agro-ecosystems typically have not included the variety of pathways, including both dermal and oral, by which individuals are exposed. The present model contains four submodels simulating (1) foraging behavior of individual birds, (2) chemical applications to crops, (3) transfers of chemicals among soil, insects, and small mammals, and (4) transfers of chemicals to birds via ingestion and dermal exposure. We demonstrate use of the model by simulating the impacts of a variety of commonly used herbicides, insecticides, growth regulators, and defoliants on western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) that winter in agricultural landscapes in southern Texas, United States. The model generated reasonable movement patterns for each chemical through soil, water, insects, and rodents, as well as into the owl via consumption and dermal absorption. Sensitivity analysis suggested model predictions were sensitive to uncertainty associated with estimates of chemical half-lives in birds, soil, and prey, sensitive to parameters associated with estimating dermal exposure, and relatively insensitive to uncertainty associated with details of chemical application procedures (timing of application, amount of drift). Nonetheless, the general trends in chemical accumulations and the relative impacts of the various chemicals were robust to these parameter changes. Simulation results suggested that insecticides posed a greater potential risk to owls of both sublethal and lethal effects than do herbicides, defoliants, and growth regulators under crop scenarios typical of southern Texas, and that use of multiple indicators, or endpoints provided a more accurate assessment of risk due to agricultural chemical exposure. The model should prove useful in helping prioritize the chemicals and transfer pathways targeted in future studies and also, as these new data become available, in assessing the relative danger to other birds of exposure to different types of agricultural chemicals.     

A model for the initial stages following the rupture of a natural gas transmission pipeline

Experience shows that, despite the best efforts of the pipeline industry worldwide, pipelines do fail and release their contents to the atmosphere. In the case of below-ground pipelines transmitting natural gas, there is a chance that the release will be ignited, posing a significant hazard to any people in the vicinity. Mindful of this hazard, an international group of gas companies have collaborated over a period of many years on research projects aimed at developing an understanding of how these releases may arise (failure causes), how often they might occur (failure frequency), what type of releases might be produced (failure modes) and what type of behaviour might be produced for each of these modes of release (consequence analysis). This paper has been prepared to describe the mathematical models that have been developed on behalf of this group to assess the initial transient period following the rupture of a buried natural gas transmission pipeline assuming the release ignites immediately. It gives details of the equations used by the different models and it refers to some of the experimental data that has been used in the development of the models. A comparison of the model with the experimental data is provided. This demonstrates that the early stages could have a significant impact when evaluating the harm that could be caused. This provides a justification for developing the models rather than using a simpler alternative that does not take the initial highly transient period into account.     

The presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment due to human use – present knowledge and future challenges

Intensive research on pharmaceuticals in the environment started about 15 years ago. Since then a vast amount of literature has been published. The input and presence of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their fate in the environment were and is still of high interest. As it has been extensively demonstrated that the active compounds are present in the environment some of the research interest has moved from analysis of the compounds, which is still undertaken, to effect studies in the lab and in field trials. It has been found that environmental concentrations can cause effects in wildlife if proper tools are applied for effect assessment. The question of mixture toxicity has gained more and more attention. It has been learned that classical tests may underestimate effects and risks. Work has been done in the field of risk assessment and risk management. As for risk management strategies to eliminate pharmaceuticals from wastewater or from the effluent of sewage treatment plants have been proposed and investigated. A tremendous amount of literature can now be found describing technical management measures such as oxidative or photolytic effluent treatment, filtering techniques, and application of charcoal. It has been learned however, that each of these approaches has its specific shortcomings. Therefore, additional approaches such as including people handling and using the compounds, and focusing on the properties of the compounds (“green pharmacy”) came into focus. Accordingly, this review gives an overview of the present state of knowledge presenting typical results and lines of discussion. This review makes no claim to give a complete overview including the full detailed body of knowledge of pharmaceuticals in the environment. Rather, it addresses important and typical topics to stimulate discussion.