安全生产危机预警初探

危机预警是根据系统外部环境和内部条件的变化,对系统不利事件和风险进行的预测和警报.当生产中的某种或某几种危险指标达到危机预警指标时,企业出现危机情境.本文从安全生产风险管理的角度,探讨了安全生产危机预警的概念,研究了安全生产危机管理的内容.     

The implementation of the SEVESO II legislation in the Polish major hazard industry

The paper presents the implementation of the SEVESO II Directive in Poland. Particularly, a systematic approach to the realization of MAPP, Safety Report and Emergency Plan is shown. It takes into account the real technical and organizational standards of the Polish major hazard industry as well. The impact of the implementation of SEVESO II Legislation on safety performance changes in particular major hazard companies was assessed using the questionnaires method of data collection. The fundamental question of that survey was: did that exercise improve safety performance or was it just a ‘paper work’? The majority of survey reported more positive than negative comments. The conclusions were drawn and some suggestions were made to improve major accident control in Poland.     

Export inherent safety NOT risk

The author presents a personal view that production of bulk chemicals and the attendant risks are being transferred from developed to developing nations. Some evidence is presented on the transfer of production. The transferred risk is increased because of the larger scale plants that are now built in locales that are less able to cope with the increased hazards. Bhopal was an example of an inherently unsafe plant, with major hazards that could have been avoided or drastically reduced by design. It behoves the industry to adopt the inherently safer philosophy and practice in the new plants that it builds, in order to minimise the opportunity for another accident like Bhopal and the threat to our industry that such an accident would pose.     

Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

循环减灾理论及其煤矿循环减灾模式

煤矿循环减灾是在矿业开发中,针对我国煤矿自然条件复杂、灾害多的实际,尽可能少采或不采目前条件不允许的煤炭资源,如必须开采则应减少危险源,综合利用、综合开发,把对煤炭开采有害的资源利用起来,化害为益,变废为宝,把目前认为无用的东西利用起来治理灾害,以废治害,从而实现资源开采最少化,环境影响最小化,资源利用充分化,煤矿生产灾害发生最少化。煤矿循环减灾的典型模式有化害为益模式和以废治害模式两种类型。化害为益模式中包括把煤矿瓦斯作为资源的先抽后采、边抽边采模式和充分利用地热,变热害为热能模式。以废治害模式中包括煤矸石井下直接用于采空区充填模式和粉煤灰回收利用模式。循环减灾是一种从根本上防止和减轻灾害的措施,在全国煤矿企业实施循环减灾对于遏止目前煤矿事故多发势头,实现煤矿企业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

基于中国出口产品在国际贸易摩擦中的风险研究

进入21世纪以来,国际贸易摩擦已成为各国经济发展中难以避免的问题,随着中国在国际贸易领域中的迅速发展,中国与其他国家的贸易摩擦也不断出现,为此所承担的风险也越来越大。笔者对中国在国际贸易中出现的摩擦的表象成因进行了认真、深刻的分析,从8个方面提出了中国防范国际贸易摩擦风险的对策:行使世贸组织赋予的权利,处理多种贸易纠纷;完善我国对外贸易法律体制,建立合乎国际惯例的贸易救济体系;建立产业投资损害预警机制,减少因盲目投资带来的风险损失;加大技术开发力度,促进产业升级与产品档次的提高;转变政府职能,运用国际惯例调控贸易经济;企业练好国际市场竞争的内功,提高防范贸易摩擦风险的能力;强化行业协会职能,协调对内、对外关系;慎重处理好人民币汇率升值与汇率机制问题。同时,就中国出口产品在国际贸易摩擦中应注意的问题,也提出了尽快制定《反垄断法》、积极参与国际多边谈判等4个方面的建议。     

Reflecting on stakeholders’ perceptions in an Ecological Risk Assessment workshop: Lessons for practitioners

A new form of Ecological Risk Assessment aims to improve environmental decision-making through strong stakeholder engagement, often in workshop situations. This wider focus increases interaction between workshop practitioners and stakeholders for reflecting on, and learning from, each others perceptions. In this article, we analyse and discuss a one day workshop that was concerned with trialling this method of deriving an Ecological Risk Assessment. We found that stakeholders had issues with some elements of the workshop process. The decision problem was formulated prior to the workshop and without consultation among all the stakeholders. Consequently, the original decision problem was rejected for a mutually derived broader focus and this resulted in a loss of clarity and purpose. Stakeholders did not wholly concur with the prioritising of ecological values over social and economic values and some stakeholders objected to defining assessment endpoints, because it implies a reductionist approach that doesn’t capture significance and understanding of systems. Ecological Risk Assessment workshops are complex and require significant practitioner and stakeholder development to provide useful and mutually derived outcomes.     

Is recycled water use risky? An Urban Australian community’s perspective

The emergence of a global water crisis has seen the necessity for a sustainable approach to water management. Policies directed towards water recycling have been implemented in many regions of the world. In Australia, prolonged drought conditions in most major cities during the past decade have led to serious national calls for less drinking water to be used (Prime Minister’s Science Engineering and Innovation Council, 2003), and a strategic policy response from many State Governments, including bold targets for water recycling. A key consideration to the realisation of these policies is greater understanding of community attitudes to recycled water use, without which, a number of recycled water projects have failed (Hurlimann and McKay, 2004). Despite the critical nature of community attitudes, little research has been conducted, especially in relation to perception of risk, which has been found to be critical in the adoption of new technologies (Cvetkovich and Lofstedt, 1999). This paper investigates an urban Australian community’s perception of risk involved with using recycled water. Key findings include: perception of risk increased as the use of recycled water became increasingly personal. Perception of risk was significantly negatively related to trust, perception of fairness and information. Trust in the Water Authority to manage risk was significantly related to perception of trust, communication and integrity of the Authority.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations

A primary purpose in measuring safety is to develop intervention strategies to avoid future accidents. Recognizing signals before an accident occurs offers the potential for improving safety, and many organizations have sought to develop programs to identify and benefit from alerts, signals and prior indicators. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying and evaluating leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations–organizations comprised of multiple, distributed members, temporarily linked together for competitive advantage, that share common value chains and business processes supported by distributed information technology. We begin by discussing risk propensity in virtual organizations and leading indicators of safety. We then describe a pilot study to identify leading indicators for one safety-critical system, and use the results of that study and the literature just described to propose an approach to developing leading indicators in virtual organizations.