Past,present and future of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) and the incentive it obtained from Land-Use Planning (LUP)

This paper tells the story about the development of Quantitative Risk Assessment, how it was conceptualized in the early 1970s in the nuclear industry, how it was employed within the chemical industry soon after, and what its status is today. The different purposes of QRA are explained, and we elaborate on one of the purposes, that is, Land-Use Planning. The role of Professor Ben Ale, as a process safety pioneer, is discussed throughout the history. We finally provide some on-going state-of-the-art research and projects to further improve QRA approaches, and we sketch the future of QRA and its relation with LUP.     

基于RBI的苯乙烯/环氧丙烷装置压力管道在线检验研究

对苯乙烯／环氧丙烷装置进行腐蚀回路划分,并将腐蚀回路中的压力管道按照管径、材质及用途等因素划分为不同的组别后进行RBI分析。根据风险评估结果,结合压力管道的使用情况、失效机理及剩余使用寿命等确定下一个检验周期和检验策略。以腐蚀回路中的组别作为检验单元,根据其失效可能性及风险等级确定各检验单元的检验比例和检验方法进行在线检验。结果表明：基于RBI分析结果的压力管道在线抽检方法可以验证风险评估的结果,同时还可以满足使用单位对管道的风险控制要求。     

大型常压储罐在用检验技术与策略

介绍了钢制立式焊接常压储罐主要的损伤机理、主要检测标准和各种无损检测方法在储罐检验中的应用特点以及基于风险检验的理念,提出了储罐在用检验的技术方法和策略。     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Estimating the economic,social and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia

It is often said that bushfires are a fact of life in Australia. While Australian communities will always be affected by the impacts of bushfires, there is an element of human involvement that makes at least some bushfires avoidable. In Australia more bushfires are started by deliberate lighting than are caused by lightning or other natural sources. This creates an element of criminality in relation to bushfires which includes the establishment of bushfire arson as a serious criminal offence. The author presents a motive-based typology of deliberately lit bushfires and argues that a greater understanding of the reasons why people light bushfires can help prevention, investigation and treatment of offenders.     

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

Risk transference and related trends: driving forces towards more mega-disasters

Abstract

In recent decades, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially. There are several trends in society and nature that suggest this pattern may continue, with more frequent mega-disasters occurring in the future. In particular, risk perception that is at odds with the “reala” risk underlies the process of risk transference which encourages development that increases long-term vulnerability.     

高危岗位矿工个体风险感知影响因素仿真研究

为探索高危岗位矿工风险感知的影响因素,在文献研究和复杂适应系统理论分析基础上,从个体角度构建矿工风险感知影响因素的系统动力学模型。运用Vensim 软件模拟仿真各工作时间段中,矿工风险感知水平及各因素对其影响的动态演化过程。研究表明:工作初期,情绪稳定性水平对风险感知水平促进效果显著,工作倦怠的抑制作用较突出;在工作后期,自我效能感对风险感知水平的削弱影响显著,风险规避态度则发挥较大的促进作用;风险知识经验超出一定范围会对风险感知水平起到反作用;安全教育培训与安全监管对风险感知水平的促进作用相对稳定持久。因此,煤矿企业应根据各因素在工作时间段的不同作用,采取相应措施以提高矿工风险感知水平。     

Comparison of alternative strategies for invasive species distribution modeling

Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide useful information for managing biological invasions, such as identification of priority areas for early detection or for determining containment boundaries. However, prediction of invasive species using SDMs can be challenging because they typically violate the core assumption of being at equilibrium with their environment, which may lead to poorly guided management resulting from high levels of omission. Our goal was to provide a suite of potential decision strategies (DSs) that were not reliant on the equilibrium assumption but rather could be chosen to better match the management application, which in this case was to ensure containment through adequate surveillance. We used presence-only data and expert knowledge for model calibration and presence/absence data to evaluate the potential distribution of an introduced mesquite (Leguminoseae: Prosopis) invasion located in the Pilbara Region of northwest Western Australia. Five different DSs with varying levels of conservatism/risk were derived from a multi-criteria evaluation model using ordered weighted averaging. The performance of DSs over all possible thresholds was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. DSs not on the convex hull of the ROC curves were discarded. Two threshold determination methods (TDMs) were compared on the two remaining DSs, one that assumed equilibrium (by maximizing overall prediction success) and another that assumed the invasion was ongoing (using a 95% threshold for true positives). The most conservative DS fitted the validation data most closely but could only predict 75% of the presence data. A more risk-taking DS could predict 95% of the presence data, which identified 8.5 times more area for surveillance, and better highlighted known populations that are still rapidly invading. This DS and TDM coupling was considered to be the most appropriate for our management application. Our results show that predictive niche modeling was highly sensitive to risk levels, but that these can be tailored to match specified management objectives. The methods implemented can be readily adapted to other invasive species or for conservation purposes.