Safeguarding Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the Little Karoo,South Africa

Abstract: Global declines in biodiversity and the widespread degradation of ecosystem services have led to urgent calls to safeguard both. Responses to this urgency include calls to integrate the needs of ecosystem services and biodiversity into the design of conservation interventions. The benefits of such integration are purported to include improvements in the justification and resources available for these interventions. Nevertheless, additional costs and potential trade‐offs remain poorly understood in the design of interventions that seek to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. We sought to investigate the synergies and trade‐offs in safeguarding ecosystem services and biodiversity in South Africa's Little Karoo. We used data on three ecosystem services—carbon storage, water recharge, and fodder provision—and data on biodiversity to examine several conservation planning scenarios. First, we investigated the amount of each ecosystem service captured incidentally by a conservation plan to meet targets for biodiversity only while minimizing opportunity costs. We then examined the costs of adding targets for ecosystem services into this conservation plan. Finally, we explored trade‐offs between biodiversity and ecosystem service targets at a fixed cost. At least 30% of each ecosystem service was captured incidentally when all of biodiversity targets were met. By including data on ecosystem services, we increased the amount of services captured by at least 20% for all three services without additional costs. When biodiversity targets were reduced by 8%, an extra 40% of fodder provision and water recharge were obtained and 58% of carbon could be captured for the same cost. The opportunity cost (in terms of forgone production) of safeguarding 100% of the biodiversity targets was about US$500 million. Our results showed that with a small decrease in biodiversity target achievement, substantial gains for the conservation of ecosystem services can be achieved within our biodiversity priority areas for no extra cost.     

Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.     

电站锅炉的压力管道管理和检验要求分析

电站锅炉的压力管道参数较高,存在着较大的安全风险,一旦发生事故,后果往往十分严重.电站锅炉的压力管道在按照"锅炉"或"压力管道"进行管理时,设计、制造、安装等阶段管理要求存在交叉或不清晰的情况.进行定期检验时,又有按锅炉范围内管道或工业管道(含动力管道)执行不同技术规范的情况.本文通过按"锅炉"和"压力管道"管理时执行...     

Rare event risk analysis – application to iceberg collision

To design an engineering system, testing in extreme conditions is at least recommended if not required. There are ambiguities about how to define an extreme state and how to consider it in the design of a system or its operation. The probability estimation of such an event is challenging due to data scarcity, especially in many engineering domains, e.g. offshore development. In this study, available techniques for analyzing the probability of extreme events are examined for their suitability in engineering applications, and a framework is proposed for rare event risk analysis. The framework is comprised of three phases. In the first phase, the outlier based extreme value theory is implemented to estimate the rare event probability. The maximum likelihood criterion is used to estimate the extreme distribution parameters. In the second phase, the rare event is considered as a heavy tail event, and the tail index is estimated through the Hill and the SmooHill estimator. In the third phase, The uncertainty analysis is conducted, and the risk is computed. The proposed methodology is tested for extreme iceberg risk assessment on large offshore structures in the Flemish Pass basin. For this specific case, the estimated design extreme iceberg speed was 4.31 km/h, with an occurrence probability of 3.61E-06.     

An integrated methodology to manage risk factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines

Aging urban oil and gas pipelines have a high failure probability due to their structural degradation and external interference. The operational safety of the aging urban oil and gas pipeline is challenged by different hazards. This paper proposes a novel methodology by integrating an index-based risk evaluation system and fuzzy TOPSIS model for risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines, and it is carried out by evaluating the priority of hazards affecting pipeline safety. Firstly, the hazard factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines are identified to establish an index-based risk evaluation system. Subsequently, the fuzzy TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the importance of these hazard factors and to decide which factors should be managed with priority. This work measures the importance of a hazard factor from three aspects, i.e. occurrence (O), severity (S) and detectability (D), and the weights of these three parameters are determined by a combination weight method. Eventually, the proposed methodology is tested by an industrial case to illustrate its effectiveness, and some safety strategies to reduce the operational risk of the pipeline are presented. The proposed methodology is a useful tool to implement more efficient risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines.     

Guidance to improve the effectiveness of process safety management systems in operating facilities

The Process Safety Management (PSM) systems at the operating facilities in the Oil & Gas and in Chemical manufacturing industries have matured over the years and have become, at most facilities, very robust and sophisticated. These programs are administrated by Process Safety (PS) teams at both the corporate business units and plant levels and have been effective in reducing the number and severity of PS events across the industries over the past 25 years or so. Incidents however are occurring at a regular interval and in recent times several noteworthy PS events have occurred in the United States which have brought into question the effectiveness of the PSM programs at play. These facilities have been applying their PSM programs with the expectation that the number and severity of PS events would decrease over time. The expected result has not been realized, especially in context to those facilities that have undergone the recent incidents. Current paper reviews a few publicly available PS performance reports of Oil & Gas and Chemical manufacturing industries. The authors identified a few factors at play that have led to these PS events based on their experience, literature review, and incident investigation reports. Most of the factors are intertwined with multiple PSM elements and it requires a holistic approach to address them. Each of the factors is described and the path forward is proposed to improve the effectiveness of PSM programs.     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.     

Factors influencing acquisition of ecological and exposure information about hazards and risks from contaminated sites

Considerable research indicates that a wide range of socio-economic factors influence attitudes and perceptions about environmental hazards and risks, and that social trust in those who manage a hazard is strongly correlated to judgements about risks and benefits. We suggest that there are three steps that lead to environmental risk perceptions: acquisition of information, interpretation and synthesis of different pieces of information, and understanding of that information in light of previous knowledge, perceptions, or attitudes. In this study we presented 211 college students in the sciences and non-sciences with ecological and exposure information using text, tables and maps to examine the factors that affect information acquisition and interpretation concerning ecological issues at a fictitious hazardous waste site. Students were allowed about an hour to read the materials and answer questions. The percent of students answering each question correctly varied from 4 to 82%, indicating that some questions were extremely difficult to answer. We attributed these differences to variations in the number of places information was presented (in text, tables, maps, or a combination) and the complexity of the information (how many pieces of information were required to answer the question correctly). The correlation between the number of students answering each question correctly and these combined measures (frequency, complexity) was −0.72. Thus, although there were differences in accuracy concerning ecological information as presented in this study, the major differences were accounted for by how the information was presented, and how much information was required. This suggests that risk communicators should carefully determine which ecological information is critical for the target audience, and ensure that it is presented several times (in different forms). That a lower percentage of people correctly answered questions that required synthesizing several pieces of information suggests that this complexity should be reduced where possible, or that the pieces of information should be tied clearly to the conclusion. Self-declaration of effort and perceptions of safety of the site did not markedly influence the relationship between accuracy, difficulty of finding information, and complexity of information. Other possible confounding variables (i.e., science vs non-science major) only accounted for about 27% of the variation in student’s overall score on ecological questions; age, ethnicity, and gender did not enter as significant variables. We cannot manage environmental hazards with appropriate stakeholder input unless we understand how to present environmental information to achieve a full understanding. Protection of human health and the environment requires that people understand ecological and exposure information, particularly on buffer lands.     

厦门西海域拟疏浚物中多氯联苯含量分布及生态风险评价

对厦门西海域拟疏浚物中的PCBs含量及分布特征进行了调查,结果表明,厦门西海域拟疏浚物中PCBs为0．17ng／g-30．3ng／g,其中马銮湾2个站位PCBs的总含量高于《海洋沉积物质量》（GB18668—2002）一类标准值。生态风险评价结果显示厦门西海域拟疏浚物中多氯联苯的环境毒性相对较低。