Methodology for risk assessment of COVID-19 pandemic propagation

This paper proposes a methodology to perform risk analysis of the virus spread. It is based on the coupling between CFD modelling of bioaerosol dispersion to the calculation of probability of contact events. CFD model of near-field sneeze droplets dispersion is developed to build the SARS-CoV-2 effect zones and to adequately capture the safe distance. The most shared classification of droplets size distribution of sneezes was used.Droplets were modeled through additive heating/evaporation/boiling laws and their impact on the continuous phase was examined. Larger droplets move behind the droplet nuclei front and exhibit greater vertical drop due to the effect of gravity. CFD simulations provided the iso-risk curves extension (i.e., the maximum distance as well as the angle) enclosed by the incident outcome effect zone. To calculate the risk indexes, a fault tree was developed and the probability of transmission assuming as of the top event “COVID-19 infection” was calculated starting from the virus spread curve, as main base case. Four phases of virus spread evolution were identified: initiation, propagation, generalised propagation and termination. For each phase, the maximum allowable close contact was computed, being fixed the values of the acceptable risk index. In particular, it was found that during the propagation case, the maximum allowable close contacts is two, suggesting that at this point lockdown should be activated. The here developed methodology could drive policy containment design to curb spread COVID-19 infection.     

Priority analysis for risk factors of equipment in a hydraulic turbine generator unit

Ensuring the safe operation of hydropower stations is one of the key challenges for electric generation. Clearly the safe operation of such systems can only be archived with proper and effective maintenance scheduling. The objective of this study is to analyze, rank and prioritize the risk factors responsible for equipment failures of a hydraulic turbine generator unit (HTGU) based on operating data and expert elicitation. Here a simple qualitative risk evaluation model is proposed able to consider seven typical failures in HTGU. The proposed tool is applied for the risk prioritization of equipment failures, e.g. shaft torsion, misalignment, rotating fault, axis bend, runner fault, water guide, and wicket gate of a hydropower station in China. The obtained results have been compared against the actual statistics of equipment failures of a hydropower station in China, considered showing good agreement. All of these results provide theoretical guidance for digitalization realization of equipment failures.     

The use of proactive risk management to reduce emergency service vehicle crashes among firefighters

IntroductionEmergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs), including rollovers and collisions with other vehicles and fixed objects, are a leading cause of death among U.S. firefighters. Risk management (RM) is a proactive intervention to identifying and mitigating occupational risks and hazards. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of RM in reducing ESVCs. Methods: Three fire departments (A, B and C), representing urban and suburban geographies, and serving medium to large populations, participated in facilitated RM programs to reduce their ESVCs. Interventions were chosen by each department to address their department-specific circumstances and highest risks. Monthly crash rates per 10,000 calls were calculated for each department an average of 28 months before and 23 months after the start of the RM programs. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the effect of the RM programs on monthly crash rates. Poisson regression was used to estimate the number of crashes avoided. Economic data from Department A were analyzed to estimate cost savings. Results: Department A had a 15.4% (P = 0.30) reduction in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1% (P = 0.18) decline per month thereafter. The estimated two-year average cost savings due to 167 crashes avoided was $253,100 (95%CI= $192,355 – $313,885). Department B had a 9.7% (P = 0.70) increase in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and showed no significant changes in their monthly crash rate. Department C had a 28.4% (P = 0.001) reduction in overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1.2% (P = 0.09) increase per month thereafter, with an estimated 122 crashes avoided. Conclusions: RM programs have the potential to reduce ESVCs in the fire service and their associated costs; results may vary based on the interventions chosen and how they are implemented. Practical applications: Risk management may be an effective and broadly implemented intervention to reduce ESVCs in the US fire service.     

Integration of Recursive Operability Analysis,FMECA and FTA for the Quantitative Risk Assessment in biogas plants: Role of procedural errors and components failures

With more than 350 GWh per year and thousands of installations around the world, biogas is an appealing strategy in the field of energy production and industrial waste optimization. In this sense, it is of paramount importance to address the risk associated with such plants, as an increasing trend of accidents have been recorded in the last 20 years. In this work, a representative biogas production plant was considered, and a risk assessment was carried out through the combination of Recursive Operability Analysis and Failure Mode and Effects Criticality Analysis. The methodology is rigorous and allows for both the identification and the quantification of accidental scenarios due to procedural errors and equipment failures, which miss in the literature for the case of biogas. The analysis allows the automatic generation of the Fault Trees for the identified Top Events, which can be numerically solved. Results show that the most critical accidental scenario in the biogas plant here considered is the formation of an explosive air-biogas mixture, which can occur in both anaerobic digester and condensate trap. The calculated probabilities agree with the results available in literature on similar plants. Pumps and Distributed Control System were found to be the most critical components.     

The supervision of environmental risk: The case of HCB waste or Botany/Randwick?

The governance activities of capital and the state include attempts to control the timing and spacing of social activities such as the production of environmental risks and settlement of different social groups. The supervisory activities that have shaped the environmental and social history of the Botany/Randwick area are identified here, to examine how the HCB waste risk developed in that community. The analysis shows that multiple environmental risks and an ethnically diverse, working class community have been brought together in space to create environmental injustice. Analysing the governance of one environmental risk like hexachlorobenzene (HCB) waste may not increase understanding about communities facing multiple environmental risks or the supervisory processes that lead to the unfair accumulation of risks for particular places or social groups. Lessons from the environmental justice movement suggest that reframing problems like HCB waste management at Botany/Randwick as distributive justice issues may contribute to governance arrangements that better manage multiple risks and pollution sources in space affecting marginalised communities.     

Hybrid regimes of knowledge? Challenges for constructing scientific evidence in the context of the GMO-debate

Background, aim, and scope

Over the last two decades, there has been a remarkable shift of attention to the scientific and political fundamentals of the precautionary principle. The application of this principle has become a main strategy of coping with the different forms and problems related to non-knowledge. Thus, societies are increasingly confronted with the challenging and hitherto unresolved problem of political and technological decision-making under conditions of diverging framings of non-knowledge. At present, there seems to be no generally accepted scientific or institutional approach. This is why the fundamental question of how different scientific actors define and construct evidence is not answered yet. Hence, this paper is based on the consideration that the conflicts in risk policy concerning genetically modified organisms (GMO) depend on the unresolved conflicts about the diverging scientific strategies and structures of evidence-making between the epistemic cultures involved. Thus, this study investigates two questions: (1) do the epistemic strategies of evidence-making differ systematically with the scientific actors involved in the GMO-debate? (2) What consequences emerge considering institutionalized procedures of decision-making?

Main features

This article is based on a secondary analysis of findings and perspectives reported in the literature and on the methods of qualitative social empirical research, i.e., interviews with experts. A total number of 34 interviews were conducted to explore the different strategies of handling non-knowledge and constructing evidence. Actors from science, administration, business and NGOs were interviewed. In this way, typical epistemic cultures can be described. An epistemic culture is the constellation of methodological strategies, theoretical assumptions and practical-experimental settings which define in every speciality the ways how we know what we know.

Results

There are two main results. Firstly, it was worked out that the epistemic cultures involved in the GMO-debate use rather distinct strategies to define non-knowledge and to classify evidence. There are three types of constructing evidence, which correspond to different types of epistemic cultures. Secondly, the findings imply that the intensity of the conflicts in risk policy fields like the GMO-debate is due to a lack of knowledge politics. Usually, knowledge politics is restricted to the design of institutional procedures to compile knowledge provided by experts. The institutional setting of risk analysis and risk management is based on the premise of strict separation between knowledge and power. However, inadmissible mixing-up of knowledge and power is observable.

Discussion

It seems that non-knowledge leads to an epistemic no man’s land, and, hence, hybrid regimes of knowledge emerge. These regimes are hybrid with respect to the unclear and not explicitly reflected strategies of evidence-making. By lacking of knowledge politics, this situation opens up ‘windows of opportunity’ for actors with special interests in risk policy fields like the GMO-debate. Therefore, there is a difference between the visible institutionalized structures of risk policies and the rather invisible hybrid regimes of knowledge. Structure and scope of expertise have to be reflected and new instruments of knowledge politics have to be designed.

Conclusions

Different epistemic cultures can be qualified by describing their particular strategies of evidence-making. To solve the conflicts between these strategies, a meta-expertise is needed. Besides the institutionalized settings of knowledge politics, the underlying hybrid regimes of knowledge have to be identified.

Recommendations and perspectives

The concept of epistemic cultures and their strategies of evidence-making should be investigated more explicitly with respect to other risk policy fields The analysis of hybrid regimes of knowledge should be deepened by looking at the complex interactions between institutional, discursive and practical rules affecting risk assessment.

     

The origin of speciation: trace metal kinetics over natural water/sediment interfaces and the consequences for bioaccumulation

The speciation of heavy metals was measured over a variety of natural and undisturbed water/sediment interfaces. Simultaneously, two benthic species (oligochaete Limnodrilus spp. and the midge Chironomus riparius) were exposed to these sediments. Under occurring redox conditions, free ion activities of trace metals Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn were measured with a chelating exchange technique, while geochemical conditions (i.e., redox) remained in tact. Free ion activities were compared with total dissolved concentrations in pore waters and surface waters in order to relate speciation to bioaccumulation. Limnodrilus spp. and C. riparius have accumulation patterns that could be linked to time-dependent exposure concentrations, expressed as chemical speciation, in the surface water and the sediment's pore water. Concentrations of free metal ions in the overlying surface water, rather than in sediment pore water, proved to be the best predictor for uptake. For the first time, measurements are obtained from sediments without disturbing physical-chemical conditions and thus bioavailability, a major restriction of other studies so far.     

Occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment--a critical review and an initial risk assessment

This review summarizes the existing knowledge on the occurrence of tire wear particles in the environment, and their ecotoxicological effects. A meta-analysis on tire components in the environment revealed that tire wear particles are present in all environmental compartments, including air, water, soils/sediments, and biota. The maximum Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of tire wear particles in surface waters range from 0.03 to 56 mg l⁻¹ and the maximum PECs in sediments range from 0.3 to 155 g kg⁻¹ d.w. The results from our previous long-term studies with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs). The upper ranges for PEC/PNEC ratios in water and sediment were >1, meaning that tire wear particles present potential risks for aquatic organisms. We suggest that management should be directed towards development and production of more environmentally friendly tires and improved road runoff treatment.