城市居住区毒气扩散数值模拟

针对某居住区附近氯气储罐连续泄漏,通过求解三维不可压缩Navier-Stokes方程、K-ε湍流模型和物质浓度方程,模拟毒气在建筑物扰动条件下的扩散过程以及浓度时空分布特征,以毒气负载为基础给出近地面毒气危害区域,探讨毒气扩散对周边居民的影响。     

Secondary analysis of time of day on simulated driving performance

PROBLEM: Age and gender are frequently controlled for in studies of driving performance, but the effects of time of day or circadian cycles on performance are often not considered. Previous research on time of day effects of simulated driving is contradictory and provides little guidance for understanding the impact of these variables on results. METHODS: Using driving simulator data from 79 subjects ages 18 to 65, this paper focuses on the impact of age, gender, and time of day on the simulated driving performance of subjects who self-selected the time of participation. RESULTS: Time of day effects were consistently evident for drivers' speed overall and across different simulated environments. Drivers in the late afternoon period consistently drove significantly slower than drivers in other time periods. Age and gender affected speed such that women and those participants 50 and older tended to drive more slowly. Time of day also had an effect on reaction time and on speed variability measures. Gender did not have significant effects on reaction time or variability measures, but age effects were present. SUMMARY: Taken together, the results suggest that time of day effects should be considered as part of simulated driving performance, and that interactions between time of day and other variables, notably age, should be controlled for as part of future research. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Implications of these findings on current efforts for older driver testing are discussed.     

Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

垃圾填埋场室内模拟试验注水量确定方法及其应用

针对填埋场室内模拟试验往往忽略降雨径流和初损的问题,提出运用SCS模型确定室内模拟试验日注水量的方法,并将计算结果应用于成都长安填埋场室内模拟试验中.结果表明,采用SCS模型计算所得的日入渗量进行注水的模拟柱渗滤液产量和水质变化能够更准确的模拟填埋场实际情况.     

UniTank工艺流程氨氮浓度的动态特征

利用基于ASM2D的数学模型对上海石洞口污水厂UniTank工艺内氨氮浓度的动态特性进行了仿真研究,发现该流程反应器氨氮浓度具有非稳态特征.反应器内氨氮浓度的变化规律与曝气时间设定及进水时间设定有关.增加曝气强度,能降低边池及中池的氨氮浓度,相应增大边池及中池的硝态氮浓度.     

土壤渗滤处理系统运行控制的模拟研究

通过建立地下水数学模型,回答了土壤渗滤工程运行控制中的两个难点问题:(1)工程运行水力负荷.当工程地块周边存在河流时,河流水位低时,有助于增加水力负荷,反之则降低水力负荷;实际土壤运行面积的增加和独立运行单元之间的间距增加也能够增加工程运行水力负荷.(2)地下水水质监测井的优化布设.模拟工程运行后地下水水质空间分布特征,在地下水水质最不利的位置和其他特别关注的位置布置监测井,从而能够以具有典型代表性且数目较少的监测井达到准确评估工程对地下水水质影响的目的.     

地铁自动检票闸机对人员疏散的影响分析

本文采用计算机仿真技术,建立了地铁车站的疏散模型,获得了每个时刘的人员分布状态,找到了不利于人员疏散的”瓶颈”位置。同时指出了现有地铁站台疏散时间的计算方法的不足之处。通过模拟详细分析了地铁自动检票闸机对人员疏散的影响,模拟结果显示,地铁自动检票闸机的存在,降低了人员疏散的效率,在研制疏散预案以及现场指挥时需要审慎地考虑闸机的影响。文末就此提出了一些合理建议。     

Experiment and simulation research of evolution process for LNG leakage and diffusion

The frequent occurrence of LNG leakage accidents has caused serious economic loss and environmental damage. Experiments and simulations can be combined to obtain the transient process of LNG leakage and diffusion. This paper analyzed LNG leakage diffusion rules with experiment results obtained by depleting 1.4t LNG. The vapor clouds and LNG concentration are measured, which can be a comparison with the simulation results. Computational fluid dynamics and gas diffusion theory were chosen as the theoretical basis, simulating the transient process of LNG gasification to obtain the diffusion concentration rules. The simulation of LNG diffusion is divided into two parts: LNG leakage at the source and atmospheric diffusion. The maximum concentration of methane in the experiment was 4.1%, and the maximum concentration in the simulation was 4.6%. The results show good agreement of the deviation statistics, which fall in the standard recommendation value range. Then we make a prediction of the dangerous concentration area and the flammability hazard zone of LNG leakage accident. The simulation results show that the range of the lower wind direction danger area firstly increases and then decreases, and the maximum distance of IDLH increases firstly and arrived at the peak of 52  m at 300s.     

Herbicide Leaching on a Recharge Area of the Guarany Aquifer in Brazil

Abstract

The region of Ribeirão Preto City, located in Southeast of Brazil, São Paulo State, is an important sugarcane, soybean, and corn producing area with a high level of pesticides utilization. This region is also an important recharge area for groundwater supply of the Guarany aquifer. Since the past ten years atrazine, simazine, ametryn, tebuthiuron, diuron, 2,4-D, picloram, and hexazinone are the main herbicides used in this area. In order to study a possible leaching of some of these herbicides into the aquifer, surface, and groundwater samples were collected in a watershed during the years of 1996 to 2003, from different locations. To detect and quantify the herbicides a GC-MS (gas chromatograph/mass spectrometry) method was used. The response of the herbicides analyzed was linear over the concentration range of 0.02 to 2.0 μg/L. Analysis of groundwater revealed that the herbicides tebuthiuron, diuron, atrazine, simazine, and ametryn were not present in the samples. In the surface water collected in 1997, ametryn was present in two out of nine locations with concentrations ranging from 0.17 and 0.23 μg/L, which is above the allowable 0.1 μg/L according to the European safety level. The leaching potential of tebuthiuron, diuron, atrazine, simazine, 2,4-D, picloram, and hexazinone has been evaluated using CMLS-94, “Chemical Movement in Layered Soil,” as simulation model. No leaching into the depth of the water table at 40 m was found.