综合类工业园环境系统动力学仿真与调控

综合类工业园由不同行业企业组成,比单一行业类工业园在经济发展和污染排放方面具有更高的多样性与复杂性。徐州经济开发区是以装备制造业、光伏产业、医药食品电子等行业组成的综合类工业园,以徐州经济开发区为例,将系统动力学应用于工业园的管理与调控研究。针对园区的人口、经济、环境三大子系统,识别内在联系做出因果反馈图,在此基础上构造综合类生态工业园的系统动力学模型。通过仿真预测园区未来的产业发展趋势,最后设计经济型、环保型、协调发展型三种方案,通过系统仿真,对徐州经济开发区的管理和建设提出建议。     

激波与森林作用的实验研究

利用激波与森林的作用,有可能成为森林灭火中的一项新技术,本文报告了激波与林带作用的实验模拟方法,实验技术与装备,测试和显示手段等基本技术环节。激波在林地,林带中的传播和衰减,以及其它物理现象由纹影方法作了显示。激波诱导的压力场也作了测量。研究表明,以激波管为基础的模拟技术是成功的,实验结果对于进一步认识激波与林冠火阵面的相互作用有很好的先导意义。     

Economic simulation modeling of reprocessing alternatives for corn masa byproducts

Increasing production of corn masa for tortillas, chips, and related snack foods is resulting in large quantities of organic residuals requiring environmentally sound management. These byproduct streams appear suitable for use as livestock feed material, thus eliminating landfilling costs. Possibilities for developing livestock feed include direct shipping to livestock feeding facilities, blending prior to shipping, extrusion processing, pellet mill processing, and dehydration. To assess the viability of these options for reprocessing masa byproducts as livestock feed materials, an economic model was developed and applied to each of these alternatives. Through a series of simulation runs with this model, it was determined that direct shipping was by far the most inexpensive means of recycling masa processing residuals (10–57 $/Mg). Other alternatives examined in increasing order of costs included blending prior to shipping, extrusion, pellet mill processing (3–15, 5–18, and 4–18 times greater than direct shipping, respectively), while dehydration was clearly cost-prohibitive (33–81 times greater). Bagged feed was slightly more expensive to produce than bulk feed (1.1 times greater), and reprocessing costs increased as delivery distance increased, due to increased labor, equipment, and fuel costs, but decreased as byproduct generation rate increased, due to the development of the economies of scale. Alternately, based on a tipping fee of 50 $/Mg, the total estimated cost to landfill ranged from 65 to 112 $/Mg. Based on this cost analysis, direct shipping and feeding to livestock is the recycling option of choice for masa processing byproducts. Although specific details of process configurations and associated costs will vary, similar results are likely for other high moisture food processing residuals destined for utilization as livestock feed or components thereof.     

《大气成分数据监测系统》中的可视化方法

实时监测系统大多以图形的方式表现出来,图形的表现形式多种多样,最终的目的都是实现数据的可视化并以直观的手段供监测以及决策人快速了解当前监测情况的变化。结合工作,总结了大气成分数据监测系统建设中应用的数据可视化方法,并具体介绍这些方法是如何实现的。     

电梯选型配置系统——LIFT Version 1.0开发与应用

介绍了电梯交通配置的基本理论,提出了一种电梯交通配置流程,比较了使用仿真法与计算法进行电梯系统配置的差异。描述了电梯选型配置系统——LIFTVersion1．0主要模块的结构和功能,经实际项目的应用,系统获得了理想的效果。     

Grassy field margins as potential corridors for butterflies in agricultural landscapes: A simulation study

Over the last decades, agricultural intensification has caused a dramatic reduction of grassy habitats. This habitat loss has had a strong negative effect on many meadow-living insect populations, including butterflies. As a part of the cross-compliance measures of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, subsidies for creation and maintenance of grassy field margins (GFM) have been launched. Among other environmental issues, they may serve as corridors for movement of various meadow-living species between individual meadows. Their role as corridors has, however, not yet been demonstrated at the landscape scale and their characteristics that most significantly increase landscape connectivity are unknown. Empirical data for such studies are missing, as the GFM subsidies were launched only 3 years ago. One possibility to get some predictions of their outcomes is provided by simulation models. Here we present our simulation results, using an extension of the model developed by Kindlmann et al. (2004) for the Meadow Brown butterfly, Maniola jurtina. The extension includes the probability to cross a boundary (Conradt and Roper, 2006) that negatively influences dispersal rates but increases sensitivity to the corridor effect. Our simulations show that GFMs increase the dispersal rates between habitat patches and we predict the optimal combinations of width and number of GFMs in the landscape. This way we provide a decision-making tool for increasing landscape connectivity for M. jurtina and similar species. Although our simulations are based on a particular species, they may be generalized because this species shows dispersal rates that are typical of butterfly metapopulations (Conradt et al., 2000), and a potentially widespread dispersal kernel (i.e. “foray search”) that has been reported in a wide variety of species (see Conradt et al., 2003 for a review).     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of a Novel Hybrid Heat-Pipe Solar Collector

Abstract

This article describes a novel flat plate heat-pipe solar collector, namely, the hybrid heat-pipe solar collector. An analytical model has been developed to calculate the collector efficiency as well as simulate the heat transfer processes occurring in the collector. The effects of heat pipes/absorber, top cover, flue gas channel geometry, and flue gas temperature and flow rate, on the collector efficiency were investigated based on three modes of operation, i.e., solar only operation, solar/exhaust gas combined, and solar, exhaust gas and boiler combined. Experimental testing of the collector was also carried out for each of these modes of operation under real climatic conditions. The results were used to estimate the efficiency of the collector and determine the relation between the efficiency and general external parameter. The modeling and experimental results were compared and a correlation factor was used to modify the theoretical predictions. It was found that the efficiency of the collector was increased by about 20–30% compared to a conventional flat-plate heat pipe solar collector.     

An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine spatial resolutions and great vegetation detail. We introduce LANDIS PRO 6.0, a landscape model that simulates forest succession and disturbances on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. LANDIS PRO 6.0 improves on existing forest landscape models with two new data structures and algorithms (hash table and run-length compression). The innovative computer design enables LANDIS PRO 6.0 to simulate very large (>10⁸ ha) landscapes with a 30-m spatial resolution, which to our knowledge no other raster forest landscape models can do. We demonstrate model behavior and performance through application to five nested forest landscapes with varying sizes (from 1 million to 100 million 0.09-ha cells) in the southern Missouri Ozarks. The simulation results showed significant and variable effects of changing spatial extent on simulated forest succession patterns. Results highlighted the utility of a model like LANDIS PRO 6.0 that is capable of efficiently simulating large landscapes and scaling up forest landscape processes to a common regional scale of analysis. The programming methodology presented here may significantly advance the development of next generation of forest landscape models.     

Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India

High quality habitat suitability maps are indispensable for the management and planning of wildlife reserves. This is particularly important for megadiverse developing countries where shortages in skilled manpower and funding may preclude the use of mathematically complex modeling techniques and resource-intensive field surveys. In this study, we propose a simulation based k-fold partitioning and re-substitution approach to refine and update logistic regression models that are widely used for habitat suitability assessment and modeling. We test the modeling strategy using data from a rapid field survey conducted for habitat suitability assessment for muntjak (Muntiacus muntjak) and goral (Naemorrhaedus goral) in the central Himalayas, India. Results obtained from simulations match expectations in terms of model behavior and in terms of published habitat associations of the investigated species. Qualitative comparisons with predictions from the GARP, MaxEnt and Bioclimatic Envelopes modeling systems also show broad agreement with predictions obtained from the proposed technique. The proposed technique is suggested as a rapid-assessment precursor to detailed habitat studies such as patch occupancy modeling in situations where funds or trained manpower are not available.