Software tools to support incident reporting in safety-critical systems

Incident reporting systems are playing an increasingly important role in the development and maintenance of safety-critical applications. The perceived success of the FAA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and the FDA's MedWatch has led to the establishment of similar national and international schemes. These enable individuals and groups to report their safety concerns in a confidential or anonymous manner. Unfortunately, many of these systems are becoming victims of their own success. The ASRS and MedWatch have both now received over 500,000 submissions. In consequence, the administrators of incident reporting systems increasingly rely upon software tools to support the administration of their systems. In the past, these systems have relied upon ad hoc applications of conventional database technology. However, there are several reasons why this technology is inadequate for many large-scale reporting schemes. In particular, the problems of query formation often result in poor precision and recall. This, in turn, has profound implications for safety-critical applications. Users may fail to identify similar incidents within national or international collections. These ad hoc approaches also neglect the opportunities provided by recent developments in computer assisted interviewing and in the monitoring of retrieval activities to build models of user behavior. These techniques offer a number of potential benefits. For instance, it is possible to automatically detect potential biases in the way that investigators analyze particular incidents.     

INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT STREAM NATURALIZATION NEAR CHICAGO,ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Many urban and suburban communities in the Midwest are seeking to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems — a process known as stream naturalization. This paper describes an integrated research program that seeks to develop a scientific and technological framework to support two stream naturalization projects near Chicago, Illinois. The research program integrates theory and methods in fluvial geomorphology, aquatic ecology, hydraulic engineering and social theory. Both the conceptual and the practical challenges of that integration are discussed. Scientific and technical support emphasize the development of predictive tools to evaluate the performance of possible naturalization designs at scales most appropriate to community based projects. Social analysis focuses on place based evaluations of how communities formulate an environmental vision and then, through decision making, translate this vision into specific stream naturalization strategies. Integration of scientific and technical with social components occurs in the context of community based decision making as the predictive tools are employed by project scientists to help local communities translate their environmental visions into concrete environmental designs. Social analysis of this decision making process reveals how the interplay between the community's vision of what they want the watershed to become, and the scientific perspective on what the watershed can become to achieve the community's environmental goals, leads to the implementation of specific stream naturalization practices.     

ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNIQUES FOR PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT IN WATER PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The growing demands by the public for a more active role in planning have recently generated considerable interest among researchers and planners in the subject of public involvement techniques. Numerous surveys have found that standard public participation techniques (e.g., public hearings) by themselves are considered inadequate. Several techniques that have potential for overcoming some of the limitations of standard public involvement techniques have recently been developed. This paper describes several of these new techniques and analyzes each of them in terms of their potential utility in water resources planning.     

亚热带丘陵小流域土壤有效磷空间变异与淋失风险研究

肥料过施导致的土壤磷素累积和淋失是农业面源污染的重要方面.以湖南省长沙县金井镇脱甲河小流域(52 km2)为研究区,采用高密度布点采样、Arc GIS软件和属性相似反距离加权插值法研究了亚热带丘陵小流域表层(0~20 cm)土壤有效磷(Olsen-P)含量(以P计,下同)的空间分布特征与磷素的淋失风险.结果表明,菜地、果园、稻田和茶园土壤Olsen-P平均含量为62.0、16.1、14.4和13.7 mg·kg-1,是林地(平均含量为2.36 mg·kg-1)的5.8~26.3倍.5个土地利用类型土壤Olsen-P含量均具有高等变异水平和中等程度的空间自相关性(块基比C0/(C0+C)=50%),这与区内地形地貌、土壤母质、人工施肥等具有密切关系.根据土壤0.01 mol·L-1Ca Cl2浸提态P和Olsen-P的非线性关系可确定区内红壤和水稻土P的淋失风险临界值分别为69.97和98.40 mg·kg-1,并据此对脱甲河小流域土壤磷素淋失的风险进行了定量评价,结果表明旱地土壤具有明显较高的淋失风险,其中中等以上的比例占36.4%,而稻田土壤仅有0.2%,为中等以上淋失风险.因此,控制旱地(尤其是菜地)磷肥的投入是降低亚热带丘陵小流域土壤P淋失风险和减轻农业面源污染的关键.     

单壁碳纳米管材料对水稻幼苗的毒性效应

随着碳纳米管材料(CNTs)被广泛地应用于工业和商业等多个领域,其将不可避免地进入到大气、水和土壤环境中,从而对生态系统结构和功能产生一些负面影响.为明确进入水环境中的碳纳米管材料对农业生产的潜在危险,本实验采用水培法,研究了不同浓度(10、20、40mg·L~(-1))的单壁碳纳米管材料(SWCNTs)对萌发期内水稻的发芽率、根长耐性指数和幼苗生长期内水稻的鲜重、叶绿素和可溶性蛋白的影响,以及单壁碳纳米管材料在水稻根部的累积.结果表明,在萌发期,胁迫处理4 d后,与对照相比,10、20、40 mg·L-1SWCNTs处理组对水稻发芽率没有任何抑制作用,但会延迟种子的发芽时间;水稻根长耐性指数随着单壁碳纳米管材料浓度的增加而下降.在幼苗生长期,胁迫处理30 d后,与对照相比,水稻鲜重随着单壁碳纳米管材料浓度的增加而分别下降14.2%、21.0%和38.8%;与此相类似,水稻叶绿素和可溶性蛋白质含量随着单壁碳纳米管材料浓度的增加而下降;另外,通过透射电镜观察(TEM)发现,SWCNTs颗粒分布在水稻幼苗根尖表皮细胞的细胞壁中.SWCNTs对水稻生长起抑制作用,且随着浓度的增加抑制作用逐渐增强.     

不同有机废水厌氧产酸过程的研究

主要研究了不同类废弃有机物厌氧产酸过程中产生的挥发性脂肪酸的产量和组成比例。研究发现,废糖蜜溶液、蛋白废液和淀粉废液在达到最高产酸量时,超过50%的VFAs是乙酸,其次是丙酸,还含有少量的丁酸和戊酸。废甘油溶液在达到最高产酸量时,产生的VFAs的主要成分是丙酸。4种有机废液中,相同初始COD浓度条件下,淀粉废液产生的VFAs产量最多,初始COD为5000mg/L时最高产量为2.321g/L,其次是废甘油溶液,最高产量是2.244g/L。     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

Biochemical effects of some organo‐phosphorus insecticides on new targets in white rats

Abstract

The three S‐n‐propyl phosphates and phosphothioates: RH 218, profenofos and prothiophos were compared with fenitrothion in their potential as inhibitors of rat liver and brain AChE. Fenitrothion was more potent as an inhibitor than the three S‐n‐propyl derivatives. Incubation of hepatic protein enhanced ChE inhibition in brain in the case of fenitrothion, while it reduced the inhibitory effect of the S‐n‐propyl derivatives. On the other hand, the four organophosphorus esters caused hypoglycemia in both male and female rats and also reduced their blood urea with different degrees.