Design of aquifer remediation systems: (2) estimating site-specific performance and benefits of partial source removal

A Lagrangian stochastic model is proposed as a tool that can be utilized in forecasting remedial performance and estimating the benefits (in terms of flux and mass reduction) derived from a source zone remedial effort. The stochastic functional relationships that describe the hydraulic "structure" and non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) "architecture" have been described in a companion paper (Enfield, C.G., Wood, A.L., Espinoza, F.P., Brooks, M.C., Annable, M., Rao, P.S.C., this issue. Design of aquifer remediation systems: (1) describing hydraulic structure and NAPL architecture using tracers. J. Contam. Hydrol.). The previously defined functions were used along with the properties of the remedial fluids to describe remedial performance. There are two objectives for this paper. First, is to show that a simple analytic element model can be used to give a reasonable estimate of system performance. This is accomplished by comparing forecast performance to observed performance. The second objective is to display the model output in terms of change in mass flux and mass removal as a function of pore volumes of remedial fluid injected. The modelling results suggest that short term benefits are obtained and related to mass reduction at the sites where the model was tested.     

河流水环境中的非突发性水质风险模型研究

把影响水质模型的随机因素看成一个具有零均值的维纳过程，建立一个研究非突发性水质风险的随机微分动态模型，并对该维纳过程强度进行了估值。研究表明，水环境中的随机因素是引起非突发性风险的一个重要原因。     

An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.     

Multi-parameter renewal processes and simulation of forest fires

The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.

Heuristic space–time design of monitoring wells for contaminant plume characterization in stochastic flow fields

An optimization methodology for designing groundwater quality monitoring networks applicable to stochastic flow fields is presented and evaluated. The approach sets itself apart from previous techniques by incorporating the time dimension directly into the objective function. This function is extremized using a directed partial enumeration strategy guided by physical considerations related to transport processes. The result is a set of monitoring well locations and a sampling schedule that minimizes plume characterization error while satisfying constraints on the maximum number of wells and allowable number of active wells. The method is evaluated using hypothetical plumes with varying degrees of heterogeneity. Results indicate that the proposed approach is successful in generating near-optimal sampling networks that satisfy all imposed constraints. Monitoring networks with as little as three active wells and a total of 12 wells are found to provide adequate plume characterization for low toxicity contaminants.     

Impact of environmental production conditions on productivity and efficiency: a case study of wheat farmers in Bangladesh

Environmental conditions significantly affect production, but are often ignored in studies analysing productivity and efficiency leading to biased results. In this study, we examine the influence of selected environmental factors on productivity and efficiency in wheat farming in Bangladesh. Results reveal that environmental production conditions significantly affect the parameters of the production function and technical efficiency, as well as correlates of inefficiency. Controlling for environmental production conditions improves technical efficiency by 4 points (p<0.01) from 86% to 90%. Large farms are more efficient relative to small and medium sized farms (p<0.01 and 0.05), with no variation among regions. Policy implications include soil fertility improvement through soil conservation and crop rotation, improvement in managerial practices through extension services and adoption of modern technologies, promotion of education, strengthening the research-extension link, and development of new varieties that have higher yield potential and are also suitable for marginal areas.     

How important are uncertainty and dynamics for environmental and climate policy? Some analytics

We introduce ten papers on sustainable resource dynamics. In addition, we provide analytical results on the effect of stochastic damages on optimal economic growth, the effects of habits and loss aversion on the cost-benefit discount rate, and the effect of a carbon budget and carbon capture and storage (CCS) on optimal investment in technical change.     

Adjustment of parental effort in the puffin; the roles of adult body condition and chick size

 We examined the adjustment of parental effort of puffins by switching 20-day-old chicks randomly between parents of known body condition. Among unmanipulated birds mass gain (5–20 days) and mass of 20-day-old chicks was positively correlated with the body condition of parents at day 6. During the first 5 days after chick switching 28% (n = 55) of the parents deserted their foster chick. Parents which deserted their foster chick originally had a chick of their own that was smaller than that of those which did not desert their foster chick. Whether parents deserted their foster chick was also negatively related to the size of the foster chick. The mass of the foster chick was more important than the size of the parents' own chick in determining the desertion rate of chicks. The mass gain of the foster chick during the first 5 days after switching was positively related to the body condition of foster parents and also positively related to the mass of the foster parents' own chick, but negatively related to the size of the foster chick. The results suggest that puffins adjust their parental effort according to both their own body condition and the size of the chick. The latter may indicate the chick's prospect of survival and recruitment to the population. Received: 20 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 27 October 1996     

Stochastic pollution, costly sanctions, and optimality of emission permit banking

This paper identifies a new economic motive for pollution regulations that allow polluting firms to bank and borrow emission permits over time. When aggregate pollution is stochastic, an intertemporal permit trading regime can provide firms with efficient incentives for pollution abatement without the need for costly government enforcement actions that would otherwise be required.     

中国区域创新效率及其影响因素

效率问题是中国科技创新过程中需重点关注的一个问题.本文以1998-2005年中国30个省份的研发面板数据为基础,以专利为创新的产出指标,R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入为创新的投入指标,应用随机前沿模型对各地区创新过程中的效率情况进行了实证测评,并就影响创新效率的环境因素进行了进一步探讨.主要的研究发现有:R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入对创新产出均有显著的正向影响,且R&D人员投入比R&D经费支出具有更高的产出弹性;劳动者素质对区域创新效率的提高有显著的正影响,而产业结构有显著的负影响,这可能与专利并不能全面反映高技术产业创新绩效有关;各地区的创新效率呈明显上升的趋势,且与地方经济发展结合越来越紧密;区域创新效率有收敛的趋势,后进地区的追赶效应明显.本文结论为国家及地方创新工程建设提供政策参考.