A dynamic conceptualization of power for sustainability research

This paper takes up the challenge of providing a conceptual power framework to be used in the context of sustainability research. First, challenges of sustainability research are discussed by focusing specifically on recent insights from Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA), and on that basis some requirements for concepts to be used in sustainability research are postulated. It is argued that two of the most important aspects of sustainability assessment research are the long-term dynamics of change and an interdisciplinary paradigm. Second, a dynamic power framework is presented that was developed in the context of research on socio-technical sustainability transitions, including the basics of this power framework as well as some empirical illustrations. Third, it is discussed how the presented power framework deals with time, change and long-term dynamics, and how this contributes to the state-of-the-art. Fourth, it is indicated how the power framework integrates interdisciplinary and ‘interparadigmaticatic’ research requirements, and how this contributes to the state-of-the art. In conclusion, the arguments are summarized and some challenges for future research are distilled.     

On sustainability and social welfare

This paper proposes to define sustainability in terms of leaving it possible for future generations to sustain certain defined targets. It is shown that variants of genuine savings and the ecological footprint can then serve as indicators of sustainability. The link between sustainability and intergenerational welfare is examined, and it is shown how to incorporate indicators of sustainability into a social welfare measure, including risk in the analysis.     

卧龙湖湿地生态系统与生态经济可持续发展的能值分析

采用能值理论,评估了卧龙湖湿地多年平均能值投入及其生态服务价值,并分析了卧龙湖湿地生态系统结构功能及系统内外的物质、能量流动特征。结果显示,卧龙湖湿地生态系统的年能值投入为4.94×101 9sej,其中自然资源能值投入为1.75×101 9s ej,经济反馈的能值投入为3.60×1019sej:能值投资率为2.06,能值自给率仅为0.27,且环境负载率较高。此外,卧龙湖湿地生态系统能提供较高的生态系统服务价值,尤其是蒸腾作用,为每年每公顷269万美元,远远高于其他湿地。对研究结果的分析表明,区域经济发展对于卧龙湖湿地的依赖性很强,而目前卧龙湖湿地的环境负载率较高,因此,加强对卧龙湖湿地的保护和恢复,对于促进区域经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。     

From insight to action in reservoir management—lessons from Asia

The World Commission on Dams (WCD) has now presented its final report on the problems with large dams. Many dam projects were found to be underperforming, especially those built for irrigation purposes. WCD also reports that many projects fail to meet current standards of social equity. A reallocation of costs and benefits is needed, but entrenched interests make this a difficult task. This article identifies shortcomings in large Asian irrigation projects: why the problems emerged, and what could be done to improve the performance of existing projects. The article argues that Asian irrigation agencies take mainly an engineering perspective, focusing on the dam itself. In a large number of cases, it takes over 10 years for the infrastructure to be installed and for the water to be delivered to the fields of the command area. Agencies need to improve their competence in dealing with social and environmental issues. This article argues that social and economic infrastructure is often inadequate; there is a need for an integrated view of the role of agriculture in development. Furthermore, adaptive management practices and water user participation can often be critical elements. To be successful, participation needs to be gender sensitive, and stakeholders at all income levels need to be consulted. To bridge the gulf between rhetoric and action, there is also a need for independent evaluation of dam projects.     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.