中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征

利用中国1956～2000年月降水量资料,按流域将全国划分为10个区域,分析了各流域年、季降水量的多年平均状况和年代际变化特征以及长期变化趋势。分析结果进一步证实,中国北方流域降水量少,年际变化大,水资源缺乏且不稳定;南方流域降水较多,年际变化较小,水资源相对充足且比较稳定。分析结果还表明,近45年来,北方外流河流域年降水量一般趋于减少,特别是20世纪90年代以来降水明显减少;南方流域以降水增加为主,90年代降水均较80年代增多,特别是长江流域以南地区更为明显。季节降水减少主要出现在夏秋季,冬春季降水有微弱增加趋势。近20年来,中国绝大多数流域降水的增减趋势与近45年长序列的变化趋势基本一致。北方大部分外流河流域年降水量减少,南方流域多为增加。夏、秋季,大部流域降水较前20年减少,冬春季则相反。中国西北诸河流域是十大流域中惟一四季降水均有增加的流域。     

Trend surface analysis of forest landscape pattern in Guandishan forest region of Shanxi,China

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淮安市区空气质量评价及趋势分析

根据淮安市区2007年实测空气质量日报资料,用空气污染指数法,对淮安市区空气质量进行评价;并用秩相关系数检验法作污染趋势分析。结果表明,2007年淮安市区的空气质量类别为Ⅱ级,空气质量状况为良好,监测点富华服装公司的空气质量最差,监测点淮阴区监测站的空气质量最好;一年中以8月份的空气质量最好,1月份的空气质量最差;污染物SO2及NO2浓度随时间变化趋势明显,而PM10的浓度随时间变化趋势不显著。     

Hydrological influences on the water quality trends in Tamiraparani Basin,South India

Water quality variables – Turbidity, pH, Electrical Conductivity(EC), Chlorides and Total Hardness (TH) were monitored at adownstream location in the Tamiraparani River during 1978–1992. The observations were made at weekly intervals in a watertreatment and supply plant using standard methods. Graphical andstatistical analyses were used for data exploration, trenddetection and assessment. Box-Whisker plots of annual andseasonal changes in variables indicated apparent trends beingpresent in the data and their response to the seasonal influenceof the monsoon rainfall. Further, the examination of the medianvalues of the variables indicated that changes in the directionof trend occurred during 1985–1986, especially in pH, EC and TH. The statistical analyses were done using non-parametric methods,the ANCOVA on rank transformed data and the Seasonal Man-Kendalltest. The presence of monotonic trend in all the water qualityvariables was confirmed, however, with independent direction ofchange. The trend line was fitted by the method of leastsquares. The estimated values indicated significant increases inEC (28 S cm^-1) while significant decreases were observed inturbidity (90 NTU), pH (0.78), and total hardness (23 ppm) in a span of 15 years. The changes induced in river flow by the addition of a stabilizing reservoir, the influence of seasonal and spatialpattern of monsoon rainfall across the river basin and the increased agriculture appear causative factors for the water quality trends seen in the Tamiraparani River system.     

Patterns and Trends in Southern Ontario Lake ice Phenology

An analysis is presented of 46 ice break up and 15 ice free season phenology data series obtained largely through volunteer monitoring efforts in Southern Ontario. Observations spanned the years 1853–2001. Available data included dates of ice formation and ice break up as well as the number of ice free days in a year. A high degree of temporal coherence in ice phenology between lakes was observed (137/365 pairwise correlations significant at P<0.05). Significant monotonic trends towards earlier break up dates and longer ice free seasons were observed across the region both in the entire series and in the last thirty years of data. Trends in longer series may be associated with the end of the Little Ice Age. The significantly longer ice free seasons and earlier ice break up dates observed in the study area have important implications for lakes in other parts of Canada where climate change effects are predicted to be more extreme than in South-Central Ontario.     

Temporal evolution in PPCP removal from urban wastewater by constructed wetlands of different configuration: a medium-term study

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are widely distributed in urban wastewaters and can be removed to some extent by constructed wetlands (CWs). The medium-term (3-5 years) behaviour of these systems regarding PPCP removal is still unknown. Seven mesocosm-scale (1 m²) CWs of different configurations were operated outdoors for 39 months under the same conditions to assess their PPCP removal ability and temporal evolution. CWs differed in some design parameters, namely plant presence, species chosen (Typha angustifolia vs Phragmites australis), flow configuration and presence/absence of gravel bed (floating macrophytes surface flow, FM-SF; free-water surface flow, FW-SF; free-water subsurface flow, FW-SSF; or conventional horizontal subsurface flow, SSF). PPCP efficiencies decreased throughout time and performance differences among CWs disappeared with the systems aging. This could be due to a homogenization process in the systems caused by detrimental factors like saturation, clogging and shading. Winter efficiencies were lower than summer ones for salicylic acid, caffeine, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide and tonalide, and seasonal biological activities seem key factors to explain this fact. Maximal removal efficiencies were achieved in an unplanted-FW-SSF for ketoprofen (47-81%), naproxen (58-81%) and salicylic acid (76-98%); in an unplanted-SSF for caffeine (65-99%); in a Phragmites-FM-SF for ibuprofen (49-96%) and diclofenac (16-68%); in a Typha-FM-SF for carbamazepine (35-71%); and in a Typha-FW-SSF for methyl dihydrojasmonate (71-96%), galaxolide (67-82%) and tonalide (55-74%). Photodegradation could be involved in ketoprofen, naproxen, ibuprofen and diclofenac removal. Carbamazepine and diclofenac were moderately removed by the most efficient CWs studied. Carbamazepine might be eliminated by vegetal uptake.     

全球变暖对青藏高原腹地草地资源的影响

全球变化导致青藏高原腹地气候的暖干化趋势,也引起该区高寒草甸植被向高寒草原植被的退化。研究区内为高寒草甸一高寒草原过渡区,高寒草甸植被的退化速率为14.2km/10a,而相应地在退化区内生物总量亦呈下降趋势。气候暖干化是引起高原腹地植被退化的原因。而植被退化与区域生物总量的下降将成为影响该区环境自调能力和牧业经济发展的消极因素。     

工业园区经济能源环境耦合的系统动力学研究

工业园区是企业的集聚地,同时也是污染的高发地,工业园区的生态化发展对区域绿色发展意义重大。鉴于工业园区发展过程中的经济、能源、环境多系统之间的复杂关系,构建了经济–能源–环境（3E）系统动力学模型,在模型有效性的基础上以某国家级生态工业园区为案例进行动态仿真。针对案例园区现状,设定了基准、节能减碳、减污、能源结构调整、经济适度增长、加大节能减碳力度6种情景进行趋势预测,并对照HJ 274—2015《国家生态工业示范园区标准》进行绩效评价。结果表明：工业园区3E系统动力学模型可以用于园区生态化发展的趋势预测,通过经济增速、能耗强度、能源结构、减排因子等关键因子的调控,可对其发展情景进行优化,提出一定条件下的园区发展增速与节能减排力度,为园区规划及发展提供科学指导和决策支持。

     

Modes of Variability of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Mexico

The aim of this study is to identify temporal and spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall in Mexico. A set of 769 weather stations located in Mexico was examined. The country was divided into 12 homogeneous rainfall regions via principal component analysis. A Pettitt test was conducted to perform a homogeneity analysis for detecting abrupt changes in mean rainfall levels, and a Mann‐Kendall test was conducted to examine the presence of monotonically increasing/decreasing patterns in the data. In total, 14.4% of the annual series was deemed nonstationary. Fourteen percent of the samples were nonstationary in the winter and summer, and 9% were nonstationary in the spring and autumn. According to the results, the nonstationarity of some seasonal rainfall series may be associated with the presence of atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation). A rainfall frequency analysis was performed for the nonstationary annual series, and significant differences in the return levels can be expected for the scenarios analyzed. The identification of areas that are more susceptible to changes in rainfall levels will improve water resource management plans in the country, and it is expected that these plans will take into account nonstationary theory.     

气候变化对阿克苏河流域径流过程的影响

结合阿克苏河源流山区两气象站以及出山口两水文站近50 a的气象、 水文实测资料,运用非参数Mann-Kendall单调趋势检验、 突变检验、 方差分析外推、 R/S分析及周期性叠加趋势模型等方法,分析了阿克苏河源流区气候及径流变化的趋势和周期,并予以预测,探讨了气候变化对径流的影响量。结果表明:阿克苏河源流区气温、 降水量及径流量皆呈显著增加趋势,且分别在1989、 1985和1993年发生了显著的增多跃变;气候因子与径流量的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明其未来仍将保持增加趋势,在2010-2016年径流量的相对最大值和最小值将分别为91.822×10⁸ m³(2014年)和83.43×10⁸ m³(2011年);阿克苏河径流量在整个时间序列存在25 a的准周期,但在突变前以17 a周期为主;气候变化使得阿克苏河源流在1994-2007年增加了224.97×10⁸ m³的来水量,年增加量的最大、 最小值分别出现在2003年和2004年。