Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

氨对垃圾焚烧飞灰浸出特性的影响及地球化学模拟

垃圾焚烧飞灰可能因为选择性非催化还原法(SNCR)脱硝过程中氨泄漏、垃圾携带的渗滤液受热挥发等原因而吸附氨.本研究中采用人为添加氨水,在pH为3.66～12.44范围内,研究氨对飞灰中溶解性有机碳(DOC)和重金属浸出的影响,并利用地球化学模拟软件Visual MINTEQ从金属化学形态分布上分析氨对飞灰浸出的影响机制.结果表明,DOC在pH>9和有高浓度氨(≥1 357 mg·L-1)存在时,其浸出量大幅增加,而在浸出液中氨的水平不高于537 mg·L-1时则受氨的影响很小;在pH<6时,飞灰中各金属主要以自由态的金属离子和金属-氯络离子形态大量溶出,且受氨的影响较小;而在pH为8～12的碱性环境中和氨浓度较高时(≥3 253 mg·L-1),氨与金属生成了可溶性的金属-氨配合物,能显著增加Cd、Cu、Ni、Zn的浸出,且在pH=9附近时浸出量达到最大值,但氨对Al和Pb的浸出影响甚微;在pH>12时,Cd、Cu、Ni、Zn主要以羟基金属离子形式存在.在氨浓度为3 253 mg·L-1时,通过利用Visual MINTEQ模拟浸出值与试验数据的对比,发现Al、Pb、Zn的浸出主要由溶解/沉淀模型控制,而Cd、Cu、Ni由溶解/沉淀模型和表面吸附反应模型同时控制,且Visual MINTEQ模型能较好地预测飞灰中Al、Cu、Pb、Zn的浸出特性.     

应用数值法对井工开采对地下水预测研究——以晋城矿区赵庄煤矿为例

为了预测井工煤矿开采后地下水水位变化,及对矿区内居民水源井的影响程度,文章在详细分析赵庄煤矿区域及井田水文地质条件的基础上,运用VisualMODFLOW软件对该煤矿及周边影响范围进行了地下水流数值模拟分析,预测了赵庄煤矿开采后不同阶段地下水水位、水量及影响范围的变化,并分析了煤矿开采对当地居民饮用水源的影响,模型的识别与检验表明,所建模型能够较好地反映水文地质条件,能够与目前实际开采地下水影响相吻合。     

基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题,采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型,并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象,运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的＂倒挂＂现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算,得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。     

燃煤电厂电-袋复合式除尘器优化控制的仿真运行研究

以电-袋复合式除尘器为仿真研究对象,在Windows界面下利用Visual Basic6．0编程语言开发出燃煤电厂电-袋复合式除尘器优化控制的仿真运行软件。该软件通过建立数学模型,进行仿真实验,模拟工况变化、优化运行参数等对电-袋复合除尘系统进行整体的优化控制,并综合分析电-袋复合除尘器运行过程中的能耗以及运行费用,对运行电压、电流、运行阻力、喷吹周期等参数进行了优化。该仿真软件达到了电一袋除尘系统的节能降耗的目的,同时也降低了电～袋复合除尘器的运行成本。     

Body mass estimations for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plateosaurus engelhardti</Emphasis> using laser scanning and 3D reconstruction methods

Both body mass and surface area are factors determining the essence of any living organism. This should also hold true for an extinct organism such as a dinosaur. The present report discusses the use of a new 3D laser scanner method to establish body masses and surface areas of an Asian elephant (Zoological Museum of Copenhagen, Denmark) and of Plateosaurus engelhardti, a prosauropod from the Upper Triassic, exhibited at the Paleontological Museum in Tübingen (Germany). This method was used to study the effect that slight changes in body shape had on body mass for P. engelhardti. It was established that body volumes varied between 0.79 m³ (slim version) and 1.14 m³ (robust version), resulting in a presumable body mass of 630 and 912 kg, respectively. The total body surface areas ranged between 8.8 and 10.2 m², of which, in both reconstructions of P. engelhardti, ∼33% account for the thorax area alone. The main difference between the two models is in the tail and hind limb reconstruction. The tail of the slim version has a surface area of 1.98 m², whereas that of the robust version has a surface area of 2.73 m². The body volumes calculated for the slim version were as follows: head 0.006 m³, neck 0.016 m³, fore limbs 0.020 m³, hind limbs 0.08 m³, thoracic cavity 0.533 m³, and tail 0.136 m³. For the robust model, the following volumes were established: 0.01 m³ head, neck 0.026 m³, fore limbs 0.025 m³, hind limbs 0.18 m³, thoracic cavity 0.616 m³, and finally, tail 0.28 m³. Based on these body volumes, scaling equations were used to assess the size that the organs of this extinct dinosaur have.     

开放源类物料中微粒子排放估算模型的建立

利用实验室微粒子控制模拟试验装置,采用开放源类粉体物料自由下落溢出随机粉尘的实验研究方法,研究了济南市开放源类粉体物料自由下落过程中微粒子排放规律;在一定动力因素条件下,探讨了物料种类、粒度组成,物料含水率,环境空气湿度,自由下落中质量流量等因素对物料排放率的影响;通过数学归纳和模型化处理,建立了开放源类粉体物料自由下落过程中大气微粒子排放估算的数学模型;通过对实验数据进行回归分析后认为,粒径、含水率是对排放率影响最大的因素,质量流量是对排放率影响最小的因素。经试验验证,计算值与试验值基本一致。所获结论,对开放源类物料在转运、装卸、堆放等操作过程中大气微粒子的排放估算和综合防治具有重要的参考价值。     

基于VB6.0的供水管网震害预测方法和软件

为了提高供水管网震害预测的效率,修订了现有供水管网震害预测模型,应用Visual Basic 6.0软件平台,开发了供水管网震害预测软件。震害预测软件提供了两方面的预测功能,分别为不同地震烈度下供水管段基于三态的破坏等级预测和供水管网基于五态的破坏等级预测。软件实现了批量供水管段及整个管网的震害预测,且可以进行管网在设定地震下的震害预测,提高了预测效率。经算例分析,验证了软件的可靠性。     

快速预测畜禽粪便肥料成分含量方法研究进展

介绍了3种快速预测畜禽粪便肥料成分含量的方法,包括比重计测定法、电导仪测定法以及近红外光谱分析法。其中比重计法是基于比重与干物质之间较好的相关性进行测量的,因此它是一种间接预测粪便中的总氮、总磷的方法;电导仪预测铵态氮和总钾含量的精度较高,其中猪、牛粪便稀释以后的相关系数高于稀释前的相关系数;近红外光谱分析法则可快速地预测总氮、铵态氮、硝态氮以及水分等含量,并且精度较高。因此,可以用比重计法、电导仪法以及近红外光谱法快速预测畜禽粪便中的肥料成分含量。