木材在不同放置角度下火蔓延特性的实验研究

选用厚度为2 mm与3 mm的木材,研究了可碳化固体可燃物在静止氛围中不同角度下的火蔓延特性.研究表明,在不同角度范围内火蔓延经历着熄灭、稳定燃烧、加速燃烧以及快速燃烧等变化过程.对两种厚度的木材火蔓延行为对比分析发现,在自然对流条件下,两种厚度木材的火蔓延极限角度分别为-5°,5°.另外,研究了试样上下表面火焰参数与火蔓延速度之间的关系.在10°＜α＜60°范围内,火蔓延速度计算值与实验值能较好拟合.     

插板对正庚烷油池火燃烧行为的影响研究

海上石油泄漏常规的处理方法是原位燃烧,加速其燃烧并使其燃尽是降低其对生态环境影响的重要措施之一。以正庚烷为燃料,在油池内插入竖直铝板,研究不同高度铝板对池火燃烧行为的影响。结果表明,插板对池火燃烧速率以及火焰高度具有明显的增强作用,随着板的高度的增加,增强作用先增大后减小,当H_p/D(板高与油池直径之比)为3.5时,增强作用最大。火焰高度、板的温度、热通量以及燃烧速率的变化趋势一致,它们的临界点均在H_p/D=3.5附近。插板后燃烧速率增大主要是因为插板自身的热传导导致了燃料的核态沸腾,使燃料接受的热反馈增大,从而加快了燃料的蒸发,增大了燃烧速率。     

氢气添加对乙醇/空气预混火焰燃烧特性影响的数值模拟研究

通过对不同混合比率的乙醇/氢气/空气燃烧特性进行数值模拟,研究氢气添加量对点火延迟时间、层流燃烧速度、火焰厚度、化学反应滞留时间及组分分布情况的影响。研究发现一定程度上氢气添加量的增加能够缩短混合气体的点火延迟时间,并且氢气对点火延迟时间的影响随着温度的升高而逐渐减小。随着混合比率的增大,层流燃烧速度增大,并且在混合比率大于0.4时显著增大。火焰厚度及化学反应滞留时间随氢气增加而逐渐减小。此外,进一步分析组分分布情况得知氢气添加使火焰中H*、O*、OH*自由基摩尔分数峰值增大,并且H+O+OH摩尔分数峰值与层流燃烧速度存在线性关系。     

Modelling outflow from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids

The paper presents a mathematical model for predicting outflow rates from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids. The main focus of the paper is the methodology used to predict thermodynamic properties of interest. The model is validated using experimental data in the open literature. As the field scale outflow data does not include typical operating conditions the model is further validated at higher pressures and longer pipelines by comparing outflow rates calculated using a commercial pipeline simulation package, PROFES. The mathematical model predictions of mass flow rate and pipeline inventory agree well with the measured data and the more sophisticated pipeline model.

The simple pipeline rupture model is a useful tool for consequence analysis as it has a fast runtime on a standard PC. A further advantage is it is more easily, without having to address all of the numerical issues that arise when using a more sophisticated pipeline model. This allows a safety engineer to focus on the potential hazard rather than driving the model.     

From conference abstract to publication in the conservation science literature

Every 2 years, the conservation community comes together at The Society for Conservation Biology's International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB) to share new developments in conservation science and practice. Publication of findings presented at conferences in scientific journals adds to the permanent record and helps increase the potential impact of the work presented. However, quantitative research on publication rates for meetings relevant to conservation is lacking. For the 25th ICCB, (Auckland, New Zealand in 2011), we examined study publication rates and presenter demographics, recorded titles, number of authors, presenter affiliations, gender, country of the study region, publication status, and elapsed time between presentation and publication. Of the 980 contributions (782 talks and 198 posters), 587 (60%) were published as peer-reviewed journal articles or book chapters. Mean time to publication was 13.7 months for all presentation abstracts and 21.3 months excluding abstracts with corresponding articles that were published before the meeting. The gender breakdown of presenters was almost even (53% male, 47% female), but representation of the countries where the presenting authors were based was skewed. The political units with the most contributions were by far the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Presenters based in 16 different English-speaking countries made up 74% of the total sample, but this did not influence the likelihood of their abstract leading to a publication. Examination of conference presenters and publication of their presentations is useful to identify biases and potential challenges that need to be addressed to make conference communications permanent and increase their reach beyond conference attendees.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100–1000 times pre‐human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard‐bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification—the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over‐ and under‐estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre‐human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05–0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies     

Impact of human development on safety consciousness in construction

The International Labour Organization (ILO) reports that the risk of fatal occupational injuries in developing countries is almost twice as high as in developed countries, indicating a potential relationship between the fatality rates and the development level. The human development index (HDI), based on life expectancy, knowledge level and purchasing power parity, endorsed by the United Nations Development Programme, is a widely accepted measure of the development level. This study investigates the relationship between the HDI and the fatality rates reported by the ILO. A 23-country data set is used to demonstrate the general trend of the relationship followed by country-specific analyses for Australia, Spain, Hungary and Turkey. The study conducted is limited to fatal occupational injuries in construction, where the accidents are notoriously high. The results demonstrate a statistically significant inverse relationship between the fatality rates and the HDI.     

生物质燃烧释放N2O的测定及其分布

本文报导了实验室规模的生物质封闭燃烧系统及稻草、玉米秸、麦杆燃烧过程中Ｎ２Ｏ排放因子的测定结果，测定结果表明：稻草、麦杆及玉米秸燃烧排气中Ｎ２Ｏ的排放因子分析是８４．４ｇ／ｔ，２７．３ｇ／ｔ，１３２ｇ／ｔ。用Ｎ２Ｏ－Ｎ占生物全氮的百分含量表示，稻草及玉米秸分别上０．５９％，０．８７％。用实验得到的Ｎ２Ｏ的排放因子计算出了生物质燃烧产生Ｎ２Ｏ在全国各省、直辖市、县的年排放量，并作出了全国年排放的分布