Assessment of Alternative Methods for Statistically Downscaling Daily GCM Precipitation Outputs to Simulate Regional Streamflow

This study applied three statistical downscaling methods: (1) bias correction and spatial disaggregation at daily time scale (BCSD_daily); (2) a modified version of BCSD which reverses the order of spatial disaggregation and bias correction (SDBC), and (3) the bias correction and stochastic analog method (BCSA) to downscale general circulation model daily precipitation outputs to the subbasin scale for west‐central Florida. Each downscaled climate input dataset was then used in an integrated hydrologic model to examine differences in ability to simulate retrospective streamflow characteristics. Results showed the BCSD_daily method consistently underestimated mean streamflow because the highly spatially correlated small precipitation events produced by this method resulted in overestimation of evapotranspiration. Highly spatially correlated large precipitation events produced by the SDBC method resulted in overestimation of the standard deviation of wet season daily streamflow and the magnitude/frequency of high streamflow events. BCSA showed better performance than the other methods in reproducing spatiotemporal statistics of daily precipitation and streamflow. This study demonstrated differences in statistical downscaling techniques propagate into significant differences in streamflow predictions, and underscores the need to carefully select a downscaling method that reproduces precipitation characteristics important for the hydrologic system under consideration.     

石油污染地下水有机污染组分特征及其环境指示效应

通过采集我国北方某污染场地地下水样品,用GC-MS扫描分析石油烃成分及含量,研究油田开采情况下石油烃污染物在地下水中的分布变化及其对环境的指示作用.结果表明,地下水中总石油烃(TPH)均值为4.75mg/L;组分包括烷烃、芳香烃、酯类、醛类以及醇类等有机化合物,烷烃类含量最高,占总油百分含量平均值为65.6%;沿着地下水流向烷烃和芳香烃所占百分含量减少,分别从70.05%和14.56%下降至57.72%和10.58%,而非烃类逐渐富集,其百分含量从15.39%增加至31.72%.由样品色谱参数可知:场地Pr/Ph值在0.73~1.27之间,表明地下水处于缺氧的还原环境;Pr/C17值在0.42~1.51之间;Ph/C18值在0.61~1.30之间,指示出较强的微生物作用;细菌数与非烃类含量、Pr/C17以及Ph/C18之间呈现出正线性相关性,Pr/C17和Ph/C18值越大微生物作用越强.不同季节对石油烃浓度变化也有一定影响.     

事故致因理论的研究与应用简评

阐明事故致因理论的重要性和应用情况对于促进其发展、应用及提高事故预防效果十分重要。通过分析国内外的重要观点得知,安全科学是事故预防的科学,事故致因理论是发现事故原因、有效预防事故的工具,当然具有特别的重要性;但事故致因理论研究在我国开展较晚,所以目前的研究与应用并不充分。综合以往文献,给出了事故致因理论的实质性科学含义是事故的原因定义、原因间、原因与事故间的逻辑关系,它们可形象地综合表达为事故致因模型,其获取过程中不可或缺的方法是对以往事故案例的原因分析;通过观察安全管理实务认识到,社会组织要有效管理其安全健康和环保业务,选择一种事故致因模型作为总体思路且连续运转,十分必要。     

Wetland boundary and land-use planning in southern Ontario,Canada

There is a general lack of understanding of wetland processes and a general paucity of scientific research to predict the effects of development on wetland boundary. This paper presents the results of a survey of wetland managers as to how they delineate wetland boundaries, define compatible land uses, and restrict land uses adjacent to wetland boundaries. A major finding from the survey is that 75% of land-use planners and wetland managers failed to identify any compatible land use or restricted land use for development proposals that may affect provincially significant wetlands. The government agencies overwhelmingly lack adequate methodologies and/or criteria to delineate and protect wetland boundaries. The paper closes with a plea to consider dynamic hydrological factors in land-use planning.     

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS IN THE USE OF STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic dynamic programming model is applied to a small hydroelectric system. The variation in number of stage iterations and the computer time required to reach steady state conditions with changes in the number of storage states is investigated. The increase in computer time required to develop the storage probability distributions with increase in the number of storage states is reviewed. It is found that for an average of seven inflow states, the largest number of storage states for which it is computationally feasible to develop the storage probability distributions is nine. It is shown that use of the dynamic program results based on a small number of storage states results in unrealistically skewed storage probability distributions. These skewed distributions are attributed to “trapping” states at the low end of the storage range.     

中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示

利用国家、省、县三级行政单位的统计和普查数据,分析了我国近２０年来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间特征和驱动因子。揭示出：①减少的耕地主要是分布在东部地区质量较好的耕地,而增加的耕地主要是质量较差的边际土地;②非农产业占地的多少对固定资产投资的增减仍十分敏感;③城市化和乡镇企业的分散程度对土地的利用效率具有重要的影响。作者建议重新检讨现行的土地管理政策,提出了应尽快从行政区“耕地总量平衡”向“基本农田的有效保护”转移等政策措施